2023 NFL WEEK 6: NFL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD
The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles have separated themselves from the rest of the league. Both teams are undefeated and they have done it in different fashions. The Niners have dominated their opponents, while the Eagles have not played their best football yet but still managed to win each week.
They both go on the road against non-conference opponents, and they will have to avoid looking ahead to bigger games.
See our full breakdown of NFL Picks, NFL Player Props, and NFL Odds
Each week we bring you our best NFL bets for that week. Take a look at our past picks and weekly win-loss records:
NFL Week 1 Picks: 11-4 straight up, 6-6, ATS, 2-1 Best Bets
NFL Week 2 Picks: 11-5 straight up, 7-6-1 ATS, 2-1 Best Bets
NFL Week 3 Picks: 6-10 straight up, 6-10, 0-3 Best Bets
NFL Week 4 Picks: 12-4 straight up, 11-4-1 ATS, 1-1-1 Best Bets
NFL Week 5 Picks: 5-9 straight up; 7-7 ATS, 1-2 Best Bets
NFL Week 6 Schedule
Thursday, Oct. 12
- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Sunday, Oct. 15
- Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans (London), 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
- Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
- Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m4. ET, Fox
- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets, 4:25 P.M. ET, Fox
- New York Giants at Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Monday, Oct. 16
- Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
NFL WEEK 5 MATCHUPS: PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER-UNDER
All lines courtesy of FanDuel.
DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Spread: KC -10.5
Over-Under: 51.5
Moneyline: Denver +460; Kansas City -520
The Chiefs held on to beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5 as Patrick Mahomes took control of the game in the second half and helped his team put their opponents on their heels. Tight end Travis Kelce did not have Taylor Swift on hand, but he returned to score a key touchdown after injuring his ankle. The Chiefs are likely to have a solid offensive game since the Broncos have the worst defense in the league. T
he only way Denver is likely to hang in is if Russell Wilson can get the Broncos off to an early lead and the Chiefs commit multiple turnovers. The Chiefs have won 7 straight home games against the Broncos.
Prediction: Kansas City, Straight up and ATS.
BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. TENNESSEE TITANS (London)
Spread: Baltimore -4
O-U: 40.5
Moneyline: Baltimore -200, Tennessee +168
The Ravens let an opportunity slip through their grasp when they outplayed the Pittsburgh Steelers for three quarters but somehow found a way to lose the game against their archrivals in the 4th quarter. John Harbaugh will have his team on edge as the Ravens travel to England to take on the underachieving Titans.
If the Ravens can hold Derrick Henry in check – he was held to 43 yards in the Week 5 loss to the Colts – Baltimore should win this game. Look for Lamar Jackson to keep his foot on the accelerator and put the Titans away in the second half. The Titans are 5-2-1 ATS vs. the Ravens.
Prediction: Baltimore, Straight up and ATS.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at ATLANTA FALCONS
Spread: Atlanta -2.5
O-U: 42
Moneyline: Atlanta -138, Washington +118
The Commanders had a chance to make a statement in Week 5 against the Bears, but they fell apart and their defense showed major holes in the secondary as they helped wideout D.J. Moore look like the second coming of Jerry Rice. Look for a bounce-back game from the defense – especially the defensive line. Chase Young is starting to round into form and should make life miserable for Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder and rookie running back Bijan Robinson. I
f the Commanders can get their running game going with Brian Robinson, they should have a significant advantage because their offensive front is bigger and stronger than the Falcons defensive line. Wideout Terry McLaurin is a true difference maker when healthy with excellent moves, hands and instincts. The Washington-Atlanta series has seen the Over come through at a 6-1-1 rate in the last 8 meetings.
Prediction: Washington, Straight up and ATS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CHICAGO BEARS
Spread: Minnesota -3
O-U: 48.5
Moneyline: Minnesota -178, Chicago +150
The Vikings had high hopes at the start of the season, but they have dug themselves a huge hole because they have been unable to win the close games that they dominated last season. Now they are learning how the other half lives. While there is still time to dig out of a 1-4 hole, it will not be easy, especially with star wideout Justin Jefferson on IR for at least 4 weeks with a hamstring injury.
The Bears went nearly a full calendar year between victories. While Justin Fields played a key role in the upset win over Washington in Week 4, he has been quite inconsistent. He has a top receiver in D.J. Moore who will try to exploit Minnesota’s vulnerable defense. The Bears are 1-9 straight up and ATS at home vs. NFC North opponents.
Prediction: Minnesota, Straight up and ATS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
Spread: Cincinnati -3
O-U: 46
Moneyline: Cincinnati -154, Seattle +130
The Bengals had struggled badly in their first four games as their once-prolific offense had completely stalled. Just when it looked like the Bengals would go into freefall, they woke up and put 34 points on the board against the Cardinals. Joe Burrow had his first good game of the season – 317 yards and 3 TDs – while superb wideout Ja’Marr Chase had a remarkable 15 receptions for 192 yards and 3 TDs.
The Bengals cannot afford any slippage against the Seahawks. Head coach Pete Carroll’s team may be the biggest surprise in the NFL this year. In addition to a solid offense with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III and wideout Tyler Lockett, the defense is coming off an 11-sack game in Week 4 vs. the Giants. The rested Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS on the road against AFC opponents.
Prediction: Seattle, Straight up and ATS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Spread: SF -3.5
O-U: 41.5
Moneyline: SF -188, Cleveland +158
The undefeated 49ers are the best and sharpest team in football through the early part of the season, and they have tremendous chemistry with Brock Purdy at quarterback, Christian McCaffrey at running back and a slew of excellent receivers including tight end George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. After taking apart the Cowboys in Week 4, head coach Kyle Shanahan and his team faces a new challenge in going on the road against an excellent defensive team that is rested.
The Browns are hoping quarterback Deshaun Watson can return after sitting out in Week 4 against Baltimore with a shoulder injury. This could be a difficult spot for the Niners if they are looking ahead to a Monday night game at Minnesota in Week 7. The 49ers are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 road games against AFC opponents.
Prediction: SF, Straight up and ATS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at HOUSTON TEXANS
Spread: New Orleans -2.5
O-U: 40.5
Moneyline: Houston +118, New Orleans -138
The Saints are coming off a major thrashing of the New England Patriots, and head coach Dennis Allen’s team appears to be rounding into form. Quarterback Derek Carr is comfortable in his new offense after spending the first 9 years of his career with the Raiders. He has two outstanding weapons in running back Alvin Kamara and wideout Michael Thomas.
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has a bright future with the Texans as he has demonstrated accuracy and poise. He has yet to throw an interception, setting a new standard for first-year quarterbacks. Tight end Dalton Schultz is a solid third-down target for Stroud, while linebacker Blake Cashman is coming off a 9-tackle effort against the Falcons that included 2 stops behind the line of scrimmage. The Saints are 7-3 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against AFC opponents.
Prediction: New Orleans, Straight up and ATS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Spread: Jacksonville -5.5
O-U: 45.5
Moneyline: Jacksonville -215, Indianapolis +180
The Jaguars return to the U.S. with a two-game winning streak while playing in England, and now Trevor Lawrence will try to continue the good times. They will be tested by a plucky Colts team that has surprisingly won 3 games already and has demonstrated effort and hustle in every game. The Jaguars have a huge edge at the QB position with Lawrence, while rookie Anthony Richardson is injured.
The Colts may have star running back Jonathan Taylor back for this game, but even if they don’t, Zefross Moss is becoming a star. Jacksonville running back Travis Eitenne will be more than up for the challenge no matter who is in the lineup for the Colts.The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Colts.
Prediction: Jacksonville, straight up and ATS
CAROLINA PANTHERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Spread: Miami -14
O-U: 47.5
Moneyline: Miami -900, Carolina +610
The Dolphins have the best offensive team in the league and the Panthers are the NFL”s lone winless team. This game figures to be a blowout, but looks can often be deceiving in professional football. Head coach Mike McDaniel faces a major challenge here as it may be difficult for the Dolphins to take the Panthers seriously. Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most dangerous passers in the NFL, and he has two game breaking wideouts in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Dolphins also have a pair of explosive running backs in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane (knee), and the Panthers just don’t have the weapons to compete at this point. Rookie QB Bryce Young is struggling to learn the ropes at the professional level. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Carolina.
Prediction: Miami, Straight up; Carolina, ATS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Spread: Las Vegas -2.5
O-U: 43
Moneyline: Las Vegas -144, New England +122
The Raiders took a positive step by beating the Green Bay Packers on Monday night. The Las Vegas defense stepped up by intercepting Jordan Love three times, and that’s a good sign against the Patriots. New England has been one of the most disappointing teams in the league as Mac Jones has not been able to get the Patriots offense to fire.
Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is an accurate passer who can find open receivers as long as he can stay upright. Davante Adams is a big-play maker and former Patriot Jakobi Meyers is a solid receiver who can get open and make key plays.The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC East opponents.
Prediction: Arizona, Straight up and ATS
DETROIT LIONS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Spread: Detroit -3
O-U: 46
Moneyline: Detroit -168, Tampa Bay +142
The Lions have been the best team in the NFC North by a wide margin through the first 5 games, and that’s a huge ahistorical achievement for this beleaguered franchise. Jared Goff is an accurate quarterback who has been quite sharp, and they have a game-breaking receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown if he is able to return to the lineup from an abdomen injury. The biggest reason for the Lions improvement this season is the defense. That unit ranked 32nd a year ago, but is now ranked 6th in yards allowed per game. Aidan Hutchinson is leading the way with 4.5 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 4 passes defensed and an interception.
The Bucs have been shockingly good at 3-1, as Baker Mayfield has displayed leadership in throwing for 882 yards and a 7-2 TD-interception ratio. Mike Evans is a game-changing receiver who has size and strength, and Vita Vea is a monster in the middle of the defensive line with 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble. The Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last10 trips to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Detroit, Straight up and ATS
ARIZONA CARDINALS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
Spread: LA Rams -6
O-U: 46.5
Moneyline: LA Rams -270, Arizona +220
The Rams have been better than many thought they would as they have played hard in every game. However, Sean McVay’s team does not have a lot of talent and they are not likely to contend for a playoff spot. However, they have a pair of excellent receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and a veteran quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Aaron Donald is clearly their best defensive player, and his presence may intimidate Arizona quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The Cardinals came into the season as the least talented team in the league, but they have worked hard and been competitive most weeks. The Rams are 8-2 straight up and ATS in their last 10 visits to Arizona.
Prediction: LA Rams, Straight Up; Arizona, ATS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW YORK JETS
Spread: Phil. -6
O-U: 42
Moneyline: Philadelphia -255, NY Jets +210
The Eagles have heard all the talk going around the league that the 49ers are the best team to this point in the season, and they have not let the discussion bother them. The Eagles keep on winning and are also 5-0 – just like the Niners. Jalen Hurts always finds a way to make the right play even if his numbers are not as good as they were last year. He knows how to come through when the game is on the line, and so does the Eagles defense. Rookie Jalen Carter had 2.0 sacks in the win over the Rams, and has an excellent chance to earn postseason honors.
The Jets are coming off a road win at Denver, but quarterback Zach Wilson faces a much more difficult assignment against Philadelphia’s hard-hitting and 10th-ranked defense. If the Jets can slow down the Eagles offense, they have a chance to keep it close, but a win seems like too much to ask. The Eagles are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS against the Jets.
Prediction: Philadelphia, Straight up and ATS
NEW YORK GIANTS at BUFFALO BILLS
Spread: Buffalo -14.5
O-U: 48
Moneyline: Buffalo -1000, NY Giants +660
The Bills will be quite angry after crossing the ocean and losing to the Jaguars. They have been dominant in their three wins this season, but have lacked consistency in their losses to the Jets and Jags. The Bills are a very emotional team, and look for a major effort on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs would appear to have a major edge on the New York secondary.
The Giants offensive line is in shambles after allowing 17 sacks the past two weeks, and quarterback Daniel Jones is already beaten and battered. Buffalo’s Leonard Floyd and A.J. Epenesa will dominate the pass rush and punish Jones or backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The Giants are 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits to upstate New York.
Prediction: Buffalo, Straight up; NYG, ATS
DALLAS COWBOYS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Spread: Dallas -2.5
O-U: 49.5
Moneyline: Dallas -136, Los Angeles +116
The Chargers are one of the most talented offensive teams in the league, and they had a week off to get healthier. However, they won’t have Mike Williams any longer after the stellar wideout tore his ACL in the Week 3 victory at Minnesota. They still have Keenan Allen and rookie Quentin Johnston along with quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers could get a major boost if Austin Ekeler can return from a high ankle sprain.
The Cowboys suffered a major beatdown against the 49ers, and it is likely to have future implications. Head coach Mike McCarthy failed at preparing his team for San Francisco, and that may be the case any time the Cowboys face a quality opponent. Dak Prescott has difficulty avoiding turnovers after throwing 3 interceptions against San Francisco. The Chargers are 7-3 straight up and ATS vs. the NFC East.
Prediction: LAC, Straight up and ATS
WEEK 6 NFL GAMES BEST BETS & EXPERT PREDICTIONS
BEST BETS NFL THIS WEEK
- At Cincinnati -3 over Seattle – The Bengals finally hit their stride in their Week 5 victory over the Cardinals, and now head coach Zac Taylor’s team needs to establish some momentum at home against a dangerous opponent. The combination of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will be too much for the Seahawks to handle.
- At Las Vegas -2.5 over New England – The thought that the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the NFL is starting to sink in. They have been humiliated in back-to-back games vs. Dallas and New Orleans, and they don’t have the offensive firepower to threaten the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo has a big game against one of his former teams.
- Philadelphia -6 over at New York Jets – The Jets have been playing better and are coming off a win over the Broncos – the worst defensive team in the league. The step up in competition will be a huge problem for quarterback Zach Wilson. Jalen Hurts and receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will be too much for the Jets to handle.
