2023 NFL WEEK 3 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD & BEST BETS
Once they get through their Week 3 games, coaches should have an excellent idea of what kind of team they will have this season. Because most NFL teams rarely use their starters in preseason, it takes 2-3 games for starters to find their level. It’s clear that the Cowboys are overpowering and the Dolphins have a high-powered offense. The Bears and Cardinals appear to have a long way to go before they will be competitive on a weekly basis.
Week 3 NFL Schedule
Thursday, Sept. 21
- New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Sunday, Sept. 24
- Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- New England Patriots at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
- Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
- Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Monday, Sept. 25
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7:15 p.m. ET, ABC
- Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
NFL WEEK 3 PICKS & MATCHUPS: PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER-UNDER
NEW YORK GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Point Spread: -10
Over-Under: 44.5
Moneyline: SF -460; NYG +360
This game looks like it should be fairly easy for the 49ers, because they have gotten off to a stellar start and they have some highly skilled offensive players who should be primed to play in front of their home fans for the first time. The Giants, on the other hand, were outscored 60-0 in the first six quarters before they woke up and played a dominant second half to beat the lowly Arizona Cardinals. The Niners have a chance to be great this season with Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, but they could overlook the Giants here. That would make New York a dangerous opponent. The Giants are 6-14 straight up and 5-15 ATS against NFC West opponents
Prediction: SF, Straight up; NYG, ATS.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
Point Spread: -8.5
Over-Under: 44.5
Moneyline: Baltimore -420, Indianapolis +330
Both teams are coming off Week 2 victories, but the Colts saw rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson sidelined against the Houston Texans with a concussion after rushing for 2 early touchdowns. Richardson is demonstrating the intangibles that could make him a solid quarterback – leadership, for example – and he is a brilliant athlete. However, his passing accuracy could be an issue. Lamar Jackson is a dynamic playmaker and rookie wideout Zay Flowers has the speed to become a game-changing star. Running back Gus Edwards has the toughness to deliver a consistent ground attack. The Colts are 6-4 straight up and 9-1 ATS vs. the Ravens in the last 10 meetings.
Prediction: Baltimore, Straight up; Indianapolis, ATS
TENNESSEE TITANS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Point Spread: -4
Over-Under: 41
Moneyline: Cleveland -188, Tennessee +158
The Browns suffered a loss to the division rival Steelers in Week 2, and even worse than the defeat was the brutal, season-ending knee injury to outstanding running back Nick Chubb. Without one of the best running backs in the league, the pressure on Deshaun Watson increases significantly and he may not be up to the task. Defensive end Myles Garrett is a game changer when he is focused and playing well. The Titans bounced back from a season-opening loss to the Saints with an overtime win against the Chargers. The addition of wideout DeAndre Hopkins gives the Titans better offensive options than they had in previous seasons. Running back Derrick Henry is capable of dominating, but veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill is a question mark. Cleveland is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Tennessee.
Prediction: Cleveland, Straight up; Tennessee ATS
ATLANTA FALCONS at DETROIT LIONS
Point Spread: -4.5
Over-Under: 46.5
Moneyline: Detroit -200, Atlanta +168
Much is expected of the Lions this year, and Jared Goff is leading an effective offense through the first two games. However, the Lions could not stop the Seahawks in Week 2, and the defensive issues that they had last year largely remain in place. The Falcons are a surprising 2-0, but keeping their undefeated status in this game will be quite a challenge. Quarterback Desmond Ridder is starting to gain respect around the league, while rookie running back Bijan Robinson will be the focus of head coach Arthur Smith’s gameplan. The Falcons have done shockingly well against the number when facing the Lions on the road. Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 visits to Detroit.
Prediction: Detroit, Straight up; Atlanta ATS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
Point Spread: -1.5
Over-Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Green Bay -132, New Orleans +112
The surprising Saints are 2-0 following victories over the Titans and Panthers, but this team is still trying to gain consistency with Derek Carr at quarterback. Wide receiver Chris Olave has a chance to develop into a top player at his position. Defensive end Cameron Jordan will try to put pressure on Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who is attempting to establish himself at the position. The Packers will try to ease his way with their running game and a mediocre defense led by linebackers De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker. The Saints have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games against the Packers.
Prediction: Green Bay, Straight up and ATS
HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Point Spread: -9.5
Over-Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Jacksonville -460, Houston +360
The Jaguars are still expected to be the top team in the AFC South this season, but they could not get the best of the Chiefs despite home field advantage in Week 2.Trevor Lawrence was ordinary against the Chiefs, completing 22 of 41 passes for 216 yards with no TDs. Travis Etienne has the speed to break big plays. The Texans have high hopes for young quarterback C.J. Stroud, but they were beaten handily by the Colts last week and they don’t have the strength to stay with a motivated Jaguars team playing at home. Nevertheless, the Texans are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Jaguars.
Prediction: Jacksonville, Straight up and ATS.
DENVER BRONCOS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Point Spread: -7
Over-Under: 47
Moneyline: Miami -305, Denver +245
The Dolphins.are coming off a pair of impressive road victories over the Chargers and Patriots. Miami has more speed than any other team in the NFL at the skill positions, and QB Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the most accurate passers in the league. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are all game-breaking players, and they should be ready for a big game at home. The Broncos fell apart against Washington after opening a big first-half lead, and the combination of head coach Sean Payton and Russell Wilson must turn it around quickly after consecutive home losses or this team will turn into an unmitigated disaster. This game could get quite ugly for the visitors. The Dolphins are 6-4 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Broncos.
Prediction: Miami, Straight up and ATS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Point Spread: +1.5
Over-Under: 51.5
Moneyline: San Diego -108, Minnesota -108
This is a game between two desperate teams, as the loser will fall to 0-3 and the winner will breathe a sigh of relief. This should be an offensive showdown between Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the NFL, while Keenan Allen is a gamebreaker for the Chargers. San Diego’s defense features Joey Bosa, and that could give them the edge over a Vikings defense that has been awful against the run. The Vikings are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Chargers.
Prediction: Minnesota, Straight up and ATS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NEW YORK JETS
Point Spread: +2.5
Over-Under: 38
Moneyline: New England -130, NYJ +110
The Patriots played hard against the Eagles and Dolphins, but lost home games to both teams. Quarterback Mac Jones and offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien have a good rapport, but the offensive line is not doing its job to this point. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is more than adequate, but the wide receivers lack big-play ability. The Jets are trying to overcome the brutal Achilles injury suffered by Aaron Rodgers, but they could not stay with the overpowering Cowboys on the road in Week 2. Quarterback Zach Wilson has a gamebreaking receiver in Garrett Wilson, and running back Breece Hall can turn any game around with his explosive speed. After years of getting dominated by the Patriots, the Jets may have an opportunity to turn things around here. The Patriots are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Jets.
Prediction: NY Jets, Straight up and ATS
BUFFALO BILLS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Point Spread: +6.5
Over-Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -260, Washington +215
The Commanders are off to a great start after beating the Cardinals and the Broncos, but they will get tested severely by Josh Allen and the Bills. Sam Howell is getting the job done for Washington by avoiding turnovers and dangerous plays, and he has a solid running back in Brian Robinson. The Commanders have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and Chase Young was impressive in his return with 1.5 sacks and 1 tackle for loss against Denver. The Bills were explosive in leveling their record at 1-1 in the win over the Raiders as Allen delivered 3 TD passes. James Cook ran for 123 yards and looks like he could be one of the better backs in the NFL. The Commanders are just 2-8 straight up and 1-8-1 in their last 10 games against AFC East opponents.
Prediction: Washington, Straight up and ATS
CAROLINA PANTHERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Point Spread: -4.5
Over-Under: 42.5
Moneyline: Seattle -215, Carolina +180
The Seahawks are loaded at the skill positions this year as long as QB Geno Smith can perform at a similar level to the 2022 season. The trio at wide receiver with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba are as good as any team’s, and Kenneth Walker is a solid running back. The defense has struggled quite a bit through two games, especially on third-down plays. The Panthers face a difficult assignment, going cross-country after a tough Monday night home loss with rookie Bryce Young at quarterback. The Seahawks have lost 5 of their last 6 home games against NFC South opponents.
Prediction: Seattle, Straight up and ATS
DALLAS COWBOYS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Point Spread: +12.5
Over-Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Dallas -700, Arizona +500
The Cowboys are rolling with one-sided victories over both New York teams. The Cowboys have the most ferocious defense in the league and they are led by the NFL’s best defensive player in Micah Parsons. Make no mistake about it, he creates fear in the opposition. Dak Prescott has explosive weapons in CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, and Tony Pollard is a solid running back. The Cardinals have been competitive in losses to the Commanders and Giants, but they clearly run out of gas in the second half. Unless the Cowboys take the Cardinals for granted, they should win with ease. Dallas has lost 7 of its last 10 road games against Arizona.
Prediction: Cowboys, Straight up and ATS
CHICAGO BEARS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Point Spread: -12.5
Over-Under: 49.5
Moneyline: KC -750, Chicago +530
The Bears don’t appear to be any better in 2023 than they were a year ago, and the coach-quarterback combination of Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields may be a flat-out failure. Going into Kansas City with a vulnerable defense and a poor offensive line is a recipe for a blowout loss. Patrick Mahomes was not happy with Kansas City’s performance in the Week 2 win at Jacksonville. Look for a much sharper effort in this game. The Bears have little chance of slowing down Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce, and the return of sack artist Chris Jones will make life miserable for Fields. While the Chiefs lost the season opener to the Detroit Lions, they are 18-2 straight up in their last 20 games against NFC opponents.
Prediction: Kansas City, Straight up and ATS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Point Spread: +1.5
Over-Under: 44.5
Moneyline: Pittsburgh -122, LVR +104
The Steelers bounced back nicely in terms of effort and passion in Week 2 as they defeated the Cleveland Browns, but the offensive performance was inconsistent. QB Kenny Pickett needs to be more decisive in his decision-making, but his long TD pass to George Pickens should give head coach Mike Tomlin some confidence. The Steelers defense was on fire, producing 2 touchdowns. The Raiders lost to a motivated Bills team that did not want to fall to 0-2, but they must improve their overall effort. The Raiders offense ranks 30th after 2 games, and head coach Josh McDaniels must figure out this situation quickly.The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Steelers.
Prediction: Las Vegas, Straight up and ATS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Point Spread: +6.5
Over-Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Philadelphia -300, TB +245
The Eagles have not played with the same kind of efficiency that they displayed last year, but they are still 2-0. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not quite as sharp as he was in 2022, but he is one of the best leaders in the game. The combination of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown gives the Eagles a pair of formidable receivers, while D’Andre Swift has fit in nicely with the Eagles. The Bucs are one of the surprise teams through 2 weeks, and Baker Mayfield has exceeded expectations. However, after beating the Vikings and Bears, Tampa Bay is stepping up in class and is likely to struggle with the Eagles’ hard-hitting defense led by Fletcher Cox and Josh Sweat. Tampa Bay is 7-2 straight up in last 9 games vs. NFC East opponents
Prediction: Philadelphia, Straight up; Tampa Bay, ATS
LOS ANGELES RAMS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
Point Spread: -6.5
Over-Under: 46.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati -275, LAR +225
The Bengals need to wake up from their early-season malaise, as their offense appeared to be stuck in the mud in losses to the Browns and Ravens. Joe Burrow is troubled by a strained calf, but he has a crew of outstanding receivers led by Ja’Marr Chase. The Cincinnati running game has taken a step back with veteran Joe Mixon. The Rams have been much better than expected in beating Seattle and pushing San Francisco hard in defeat. Unknown wideout Puka Nacua has already caught 25 passes for 266 yards, and he has given Matthew Stafford a fighting chance to help the Los Angeles stay competitive in this Super Bowl LVI rematch. The Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS vs the Rams in their last 10 games.
Prediction: Cincinnati, Straight up; LAR, ATS
WEEK 3 NFL PICKS
- At N.Y. Jets +2.5 over New England – The presence of Zach Wilson at quarterback may scare off Jets backers, but the New York defense is one of the best in the league. That unit should be able to punish Mac Jones and the New England offense. The Jets play hard under Robert Saleh and this team is motivated to turn things around against a team that has hurt them badly over the years.
- Dallas -12.5 over at Arizona – There are wide miles of difference between the talent levels on these two teams. The Cowboys are off to a rollicking start after recording back-to-back blowouts. It’s generally hard to keep that up in the NFL, but the Cowboys have the best defense in the NFL and are led by the phenomenal Micah Parsons, while the Cardinals lack the firepower to threaten them. The double-digit road favorite will score another big win.
- At Washington +6.5 over Buffalo – The Commanders could be one of the big surprises in the league this year, and they have one of the best defensive lines in football. The Bills remain a very talented team, but Josh Allen will turn the ball over at crucial moments. Washington pulls out its 3rd straight victory.
