WEEK 5 NFL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD & BEST BETS

The season is starting to create some legitimate drama after just three weeks. The Dallas Cowboys looked like the best team in the NFL and then laid an egg against the Arizona Cardinals. No team has been more impressive than the Miami Dolphins, who laid a 70-20 beating on the Denver Broncos. The Fins will try to keep it going when they travel to Buffalo in Week 4.

See our full breakdown of NFL Picks, NFL Player Props, and NFL Odds

Each week we bring you our best NFL bets for that week. Take a look at our past picks and weekly win-loss records:

NFL Week 1 Picks: 11-4 straight up, 6-6, ATS, 2-1 Best Bets

NFL Week 2 Picks: 11-5 straight up, 7-6-1 ATS, 2-1 Best Bets

NFL Week 3 Picks: 6-10 straight up, 6-10, 0-3 Best Bets

NFL Week 4 Picks: 12-4 straight up, 11-4-1 ATS, 1-1-1 Best Bets

NFL Week 5 Schedule

See the full NFL Schedule

Thursday, Oct. 5

• Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime

Sunday, Oct. 8

• Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills (London), 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

• Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

• Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

• Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

• New York Giants at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

• New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

• Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

• Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

• Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

• New York Jets at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

• Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

• Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Monday, Oct. 9

• Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

NFL WEEK 5 MATCHUPS: PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER-UNDER

CHICAGO BEARS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Spread: -5.5

Over-Under: 42.5

Moneyline: Washington -245; Chicago +200

The Commanders pushed the Eagles to the limit, scoring on the last play of regulation to send the game into overtime. Quarterback Sam Howell has exceeded preseason expectations, and he has an excellent go-to receiver in Terry McLaurin who is capable of getting the best of most cornerbacks. The strength of head coach Ron Rivera’s team is a powerful front four, which is one of the best in the NFL. 

The Bears suffered another humiliating defeat in Week 4, racing to a 28-7 lead against the Denver Broncos before falling apart and letting the previously winless Broncos secure a comeback victory. Quarterback Justin Fields was on fire early, but was unable to complete the process. The Bears are winless and appear to have little direction. The Commanders are 12-3 straight up and ATS in their last 15 games against the Bears.

Prediction: Washington, Straight up and ATS.

BUFFALO BILLS vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (London)

Spread: +5.5

O-U: 48.5

Moneyline: Buffalo -168, Jacksonville +142

The Jaguars were sharp in their Week 4 victory over the Falcons in London, and “England’s team” stayed across the pond for another week as they prepared for the Bills. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to be close to joining some of the elite passers in the league. He completed 23 of 30 passes for 207 yards in the 23-7 win over the Falcons, and he has a pair of solid wideouts in Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. 

The Bills are on a roll, having overpowered three opponents in a row, including the previously undefeated Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen had a problem with turnovers a year ago, but he has thrown just one interception in the past 3 games. Stefon Diggs is coming off a 3-TD performance against Miami. The Dolphins and AFC South opponents have gone under the total in 8 of their last 10 meetings.

Prediction: Buffalo, Straight up; Jacksonville, ATS, Under

HOUSTON TEXANS at ATLANTA FALCONS

Spread: -2.5

O-U: 41.5

Moneyline: Atlanta -142, Houston +120

The Texans are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season as rookie QB C.J. Stroud has made an excellent adjustment and looks like he has a long and productive career in front of him. Stroud has thrown for 1,212 yards in his first 4 games with a 6-0 TD-interception ratio. Previously unknown wideout Nico Collins has caught 22-428-3 through the first 3 games with 10 plays of 20 yards or more.

The Falcons are starting to slide after dropping their last 2 games. If they can’t unleash rookie RB Bijan Robinson against the Texans (19th against the run), they are likely to struggle on offense. Desmond Ridder lacks big-play ability at quarterback. The Falcons are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their last 5 games against AFC opponents.

Prediction: Houston, Straight up and ATS

CAROLINA PANTHERS at DETROIT LIONS

Spread: -8.5

O-U: 44

Moneyline: Detroit -440, Carolina +330

The Lions were preseason darlings of many NFL observers, and they were picked to win the NFC North by many of them. The Lions have been better than advertised, and they have already won road games in Kansas City and Green Bay. Jared Goff is one of the game’s best short- and medium-range passers, while wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown combines speed, agility and toughness. The defense has improved dramatically, and pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson (3.5 sacks, 2 TFL, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery) is a huge difference maker.

Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is going through severe growing pains for the winless Panthers. Running back Chuba Hubbard and veteran wideout Adam Thielen are both better than average, but lack the ability to deliver explosive plays. The Panthers have won 8 of their last 10 games straight up against the Lions.

Prediction: Detroit, Straight up and ATS

TENNESSEE TITANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Spread: -1.5

O-U: 41.5

Moneyline: Indianapolis -112, Tennessee +104

The Titans are an aggressive team that is starting to get better after they evened their record at 2-2 following a 27-3 pounding of the Bengals. Ryan Tannehill is not a star at quarterback, but he will take what the defense gives him. Derrick Henry turned back the clock against the Bengals, running for 122 yards and bowling over tacklers. DeAndre Hopkins is getting more comfortable in the Titans offense.

Rookie Anthony Richardson is starting to perform well for the Colts. He is a brilliant athlete with plenty of toughness, and he led a brilliant comeback against the Rams. Zack Moss is a credible running back and Jonathan Taylor may be back shortly. The Titans are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against AFC South opponents.

Prediction: Tennessee, Straight up and ATS

NEW YORK GIANTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Spread: -9.5

O-U: 49.5

Moneyline: Miami -510, N.Y. Giants +390

The Dolphins saw their brilliant start get thrown into reverse last week against the inspired Buffalo Bills. However, it’s a long season, and there are bound to be one or two roadblocks. Look for Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill to get back on track against the beleaguered Giants. New York is off to a brutal start and the Giants have neither the speed nor the skill to hang with the Dolphins. The Giants offensive line is in disarray as Daniel Jones was sacked 11 times in the Monday night 24-3 loss to the Seahawks. If RB Saquon Barkley can return to the lineup the Giants will have a better chance of staying close here. The Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.

Prediction: Miami, Straight up and ATS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Spread: -1.5

O-U: 39

Moneyline: New England -116, New Orleans +102

The Patriots don’t have the kind of offense that will allow them to come from behind when they fall behind by more than a touchdown. That was the case against the Cowboys in Week 4, and that game turned out to be an avalanche against them. Quarterback Mac Jones has ordinary skills, and his lack of athleticism catches up with him on a regular basis. While the offense is below average, the defense is hard-hitting and effective, but injuries to linebacker Matthew Judon (elbow) and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) will hurt going forward.

The Saints suffered a disappointing loss at home to the Bucs in Week 4, but they have been road warriors, winning 20 of their last 31 games away from home. Quarterback Derek Carr played decently against Tampa Bay despite playing with an AC joint injury to his shoulder. The Saints have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to New England.

Prediction: New England, Straight up and ATS

BALTIMORE RAVENS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Spread: +3.5

O-U: 39.5

Moneyline: Baltimore -178, Pittsburgh +150

The Ravens have gotten off to an impressive 3-1 start, but their 28-3 triumph at Cleveland in Week 4 was a bit on the lucky side since they did not have to face Browns starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. Lamar Jackson was in control, throwing for 2 touchdowns without an interception and adding 2 more scores on the ground. Tight end Mark Andrews is a tough third-down and red zone receiver. Linebacker Roquan Smith is a defensive force who ranges sideline to sideline to make key plays.

The Steelers will not have quarterback Kenny Pickett in the lineup as he suffered a knee injury vs. the Texans. If the Steelers are going to win this game, they need T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick to set the tone early with big hits because the offense appears limited with backup Mitch Trubisky under center. The Ravens have a 10-4-4 record ATS in their last 18 games at Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Pittsburgh, Straight up and ATS

CINCINNATI BENGALS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

Spread: +4.5

O-U: 42.5

Moneyline: Cincinnati -196, Arizona +164

The Bengals are ready to start a full-fledged panic. This team was expected to battle the Kansas City Chiefs for AFC superiority this season, but they have dropped 3 of their first 4 games and the offense has completely fallen apart. Joe Burrow is the 26th-ranked quarterback in the NFL, and his 2-2 TD-interception ratio is shocking and unacceptable. While the offensive line is struggling, the Bengals have too many weapons to be playing this poorly.

The Cardinals looked like the worst team in the NFL at the start of the season, but Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation at quarterback – 70.7 completion percentage and 4-0 TD-interception ratio – and the team is playing hard every week. Unheralded linebacker Dennis Gardck has 4.0 sacks and 5 TFL through 4 games. The Cardinals are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS vs. the Bengals at home.

Prediction: Arizona, Straight up and ATS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Spread: +5.5

O-U: 46.5

Moneyline: Philadelphia -220, L.A. Rams +184

The Eagles have not played their best game yet, but they are still 4-0 and find a way to make the key plays when the game is on the line. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the best pressure players in the league, and he will find wideout A.J. Brown in clutch situations. D’Andre Swift is an aptly named running back who will make the first man miss. The Eagles have a powerful defensive line that should have its way with the Rams offensive front.

QB Matthew Stafford has gotten off to a sharp start, and the Rams have been competitive on an every-game basis. Wideout Puka Nacua has displayed great hands and guts, and is proving to be a major playmaker. The Eagles are 14-4 straight up and 13-3-1 ATS against the Rams.

Prediction: L.A. Rams, Straight up; L.A Rams, ATS

NEW YORK JETS at DENVER BRONCOS

Spread: -2.5

O-U: 40

Moneyline: Denver -144, NY Jets +120

The Jets almost pulled out a victory against the Chiefs Sunday night as backup quarterback Zach Wilson overcame the boos of the home crowd and a slow start to have an effective game. He completed 28 of 39 passes for 245 yards with 2 TDs and 0 interceptions, and he picked it up considerably. If the Jets can get Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook to pick up the ground attack, the Jets have the defense to string wins together.

The Broncos overcame a 21-point deficit to defeat the Bears, but it’s doubtful they could have beaten any other team in the league. RB Jaleel McLaughlin and QB Russell Wilson demonstrated big-play ability, but the Denver defense is the most vulnerable in the league. The Broncos are 7-3 straight up and ATS in their last 10 vs. the Jets.

Prediction: NYJ, Straight Up and ATS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Spread: +5.5

O-U: 52.5

Moneyline: Kansas City -235, Minnesota +194

The Chiefs have only hit their stride in one game this season, but that came against the struggling Chicago Bears, so it’s fair to ask questions. Patrick Mahomes is the most talented quarterback in the NFL, but he may not have the weapons that he had in the past, with the exception of tight end Travis Kelce. Chris Jones is one of the top defensive ends in the league and he could make life miserable for Kirk Cousins.

The Vikings finally got their first win against the Carolina Panthers, but the defensive issues that have dogged this team remain in place. Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson formed an excellent 1-2 receiving punch. Minnesota is 7-3 straight up and ATS in their last 10 against AFC West opponents.

Prediction: Minnesota, Straight up and ATS

DALLAS COWBOYS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Spread: -3.5

O-U: 45.5

Moneyline: San Francisco +174, Dallas +146

This is the early-season game of the year. The Niners are the best team in football to this point, as they have the depth on offense and defense to dominate most opponents. Second-year QB Brock Purdy has made a remarkable recovery from last year’s arm injury, and running back Christian McCaffrey is an early-season MVP candidate. The Niners can also suffocate opponents with their defense, and that unit is led by Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

The Cowboys can unleash a devastating defense with Micah Parsons. They need quarterback Dak Prescott to avoid turnovers.The Cowboys are 7-3 straight in their last 10 vs. the 49ers.

Prediction: San Francisco, Straight up and ATS

GREEN BAY PACKERS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Spread: +1.5

O-U: 43.5

Moneyline: Green Bay -112, Las Vegas -104

The Packers have not played particularly well through their 2-2 start, but they have a chance to get well against the Raiders and Broncos in back-to-back games (with a bye week in between). While the Packers have several injuries on the offensive line, RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon along with wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are healthy. That will make life easier for QB Jordan Love.

The Raiders are hoping injured QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be back in the lineup. Las Vegas has the best offensive player on the field in Davate Adams, and the former Packer will be motivated to punish his former team. The Packers are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Raiders.

Prediction: Green Bay, Straight up and ATS