2023 NFL WEEK 4 PICKS & BEST BETS
The season is starting to create some legitimate drama after just three weeks. The Dallas Cowboys looked like the best team in the NFL and then laid an egg against the Arizona Cardinals. No team has been more impressive than the Miami Dolphins, who laid a 70-20 beating on the Denver Broncos. The Fins will try to keep it going when they travel to Buffalo in Week 4.
See our full breakdown of NFL Picks, NFL Player Props, and NFL Odds
Each week we bring you our best NFL bets for that week. Take a look at our past picks and weekly win-loss records:
NFL Week 1 Picks: 11-4 straight up, 6-6, ATS, 2-1 Best Bets
NFL Week 2 Picks: 11-5 straight up, 7-6-1 ATS, 2-1 Best Bets
NFL Week 3 Picks: 6-10 straight up, 6-10, 0-3 Best Bets
Week 4 NFL Schedule
See the full NFL Schedule
Thursday, Sept. 29
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Sunday, Oct. 1
Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars (London), 9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
- Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
- New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
- Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Monday, Oct. 2
- Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
NFL WEEK 4 MATCHUPS: PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER-UNDER
DETROIT LIONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
Point Spread: +1.5
Over-Under: 45
Moneyline: Detroit -118; Green Bay +100
The Lions apparently have a legitimate plan to get to the top of the NFC North and stay there this year. They have already beaten the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, and they bounced back from a harsh loss to Seahawks by playing a solid defensive game against the Falcons. Defense was a weak spot last year for the Lions but not this year. They also have a fine rookie running back in rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have formed an excellent partnership, and it will be difficult for the Packers to slow them down.
Green Bay pulled off a miracle in rebounding from a 17-0 deficit against the Saints and recording a comeback 18-17 victory. Jordan Love is far from a finished product at quarterback, but he is a full-effort player who is improving. While the two teams have split their last 10 games, the Lions are 8-2 ATS.
Prediction: Detroit, Straight up and ATS.
ATLANTA FALCONS vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (London)
Point Spread: -3
Over-Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Atlanta +134, Jacksonville -158
The Jaguars are England’s team, as they play in the United Kingdom every year. So, perhaps they will have a home field advantage in this game. Jacksonville is off to a slow start after losing to the Texans, but Trevor Lawerence seems certain to play at a very high level after his mediocre start. Running back Travis Etienne has game-breaking skill and he could be a problem for the Atlanta front.
Desmond Ridder is an unheralded quarterback who has shown he can avoid key mistakes. Bijan Robinson was hyped as the best running back in the Draft last spring, and he appears to be even better than advertised. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the Jaguars.
Prediction: Atlanta, Straight up and ATS
MIAMI DOLPHINS at BUFFALO BILLS
Point Spread: -2.5
Over-Under: 53.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -142, Miami +120
The Dolphins are the most explosive offensive team in the league, and they may be the team that can challenge the Chiefs for AFC superiority. Tua Tagovailoa is the best quarterback in the league this year to this point – and by a wide margin. As long as he stays healthy, the Dolphins should be able to light up the scoreboard each week. Tyreek Hill is basically unstoppable as a big-play threat and running back Raheem Mostert is nearly as good.
The Bills have bounced back from a nasty Week 1 loss to the Jets with one-sided wins over the Raiders and Commanders. Josh Allen has been somewhat reckless with the football and his body in the past, but he is starting to make changes. The Bills are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games against the Dolphins.
Prediction: Miami, Straight up and ATS
LOS ANGELES RAMS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Point Spread: +1.5
Over-Under: 45.5
Moneyline: LA Rams -112, Indianapolis +104
The Rams have been extremely competitive despite their 1-2 record, as they pushed the 49ers and Bengals hard after beating the Seahawks in the opener. As long as the Rams can protect QB Matthew Stafford, they have a chance to steal a victory. Wide receivers Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua are playmakers, and so is TE Tyler Higbee.
The Colts are a surprising 2-1 as rookie head coach Shane Steichen has gotten the most out of his team. Backup QB Gardner Minshew has managed the game well since rookie QB Anthony Richardson (concussion protocol) was forced out. PK Matt Gay is coming off a 5 for 5 game that included 4 field goals of 50 yards or more. The Rams are 8-2 straight up in the last 10 games against AFC South opponents.
Prediction: LA Rams, Straight up and ATS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
Point Spread: +3
Over-Under: 44.5
Moneyline: Minnesota -146, Carolina +124
The Vikings suffered a disastrous loss to the Chargers and the numbers say that an 0-3 team won’t make the playoffs. However, they have loads of offensive talent and this should be the game that Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson light up the scoreboard. Still, the Minnesota defense continues to struggle. That unit couldn’t stop the run against the Eagles and were destroyed in the air by the Chargers.
The Panthers fought hard at Seattle, but they can’t finish the job if Andy Dalton remains under center. Vikings have won 6 of their last 9 games vs. Panthers
Prediction: Minnesota, Straight up and ATS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Point Spread: -3
Over-Under: 40.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay +132, New Orleans -156
The Saints are a missed field goal away from a 3-0 start, but the Week 3 loss to the Packers is going to hurt for a while since New Orleans had a 17-0 lead and couldn’t hold on to that advantage. Derek Carr (AC joint) may not be able to play against the Bucs, and that means Jameis Winston will likely be in the lineup.
The Bucs were punished by the Eagles in Week 3, but Baker Mayfield is eager to get his team back on track, and he gets plenty of help from his defense. Linebacker Lavonte David (13 tackles) and free safety Ryan Neal (11 tackles) will make life difficult for the New Orleans offense.
Prediction: Tampa Bay, Straight up and ATS
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Point Spread: -3
Over-under: 44.5
Moneyline: Washington +265, Philadelphia -334
The Eagles have not hit their stride yet, but they are still 3-0 and will probably get better as the season progresses. Jalen Hurts is one of the league’s top 5 quarterbacks, but he has not been up to last year’s standards. D’Andre Swift looks like a Pro Bowl running back and he is taking pressure off the Eagles passing game.
The Commanders were bludgeoned by the Bills in Week 3, and it may get worse against their division rivals. Sam Howell is smart and efficient, but he faces the toughest assignment of the season against the Philadelphia front four. Keep your eye on rookie DT Jalen Carter, who has explosive power. The Commanders are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games vs. NFC East rivals.
Prediction: Philadelphia, Straight up and ATS
DENVER BRONCOS at CHICAGO BEARS
Pont Spread:+3
Over-Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Denver -164, Chicago +138
The Broncos were on the wrong end of a humiliating blowout, giving up 70 points to the explosive Miami Dolphins. Sean Payton and his players are properly embarrassed, and it seems likely that they will be much sharper in this game. Russell Wilson has had a difficult time since leaving Seattle, but this could be a game where he gets well.
The Bears are 0-3 this season and have lost 13 straight games going back to last season. The defense is in disarray as the defensive coordinator has resigned. They can’t put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and that should allow Wilson to breathe somewhat easier. Bears quarterback Justin Fields is not making any progress, and the offense continues to struggle. Perhaps they can find a reasonable game plan in this game by looking at the film from the Miami game. Eight of the last 10 meetings between the Bears and Broncos have gone under the total.
Prediction: Chicago, Straight up and ATS
BALTIMORE RAVENS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Point Spread: -1.5
Over-Under: 42.5
Moneyline: Baltimore +108, Cleveland -126
The Ravens struggled badly in Week 3, falling behind the Colts before mounting a rally and sending the game into overtime. Instead of winning because Justin Tucker kicked a long field goal, they were done in by Colts kicker Matt Gay who was 5 of 5 on his FG attempts, including 4 from 50 yards or more. Lamar Jackson is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league, but the Ravens offense has not hit full stride.
The Cleveland defense is clearly a top-5 unit in the NFL, and defensive end Myles Garrett is nearly unstoppable. Deshaun Watson is coming off his best game in a Browns uniform – 289 passing yards, 2 TDs – and the Dawg Pound is becoming an increasingly difficult place to play. The Ravens are 6-3 straight up and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at Cleveland.
Prediction: Cleveland, Straight up and ATS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at HOUSTON TEXANS
Point Spread: +3.5
Over-Under: 41
Moneyline: Pittsburgh -166, Houston +140
The Steelers started the season with a brutal home loss to the 49ers, but they have played better in each of the next 2 weeks and improved their record to 2-1. While there are still plenty of issues, Kenny Pickett makes at least one big play every game and wideout George Pickens is on his way to becoming a star. T.J. Watt is a top-3 defensive player in the league and the X-factor is head coach Mike Tomlin, who finds a way to bring out the best in his players.
The Texans are also making progress under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, who was not afraid to let rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud attack the aggressive Jacksonville defense. The results were quite excellent as Stroud completed 20 of 30 passes for 280 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions. The Steelers are 5-1 straight up and ATS in their last 6 vs. the Texans.
Prediction: Pittsburgh, Straight up; Houston, ATS
CINCINNATI BENGALS at TENNESSEE TITANS
Point Spread: -1.5
Over-Under: 42.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati +106, Tennessee -124
The Bengals cleared a big hurdle when they defeated the Rams on Monday Night Football even though quarterback Joe Burrow is still contending with his injured calf. The Bengals offense is not at full speed, but Ja’Marr Chase showed signs of getting back on track after catching 12 passes for 141 yards against the Rams.
The Titans were stopped in their tracks by the Browns, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked 5 times. The Bengals registered 6 sacks against Matthew Stafford, and may do the same thing to Tannehill.
Prediction: Tennessee, Straight up and ATS
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Point Spread: -4.5
Over-Under: 50.5
Moneyline: LA Chargers +210, Las Vegas -210
The Chargers tried to give their Week 3 game at Minnesota to the Vikings when head coach Brandon Staley made yet another brutal coaching move – going for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 24 with 1:51 left – but the Vikings refused to accept the gift. Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and Keenan Allen is a brilliant receiver. Austin Ekeler (hamstring) could be back in the lineup here.
The Raiders could not get the job done against the Steelers, and some of it may be on Josh McDaniels. QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a head shot against Pittsburgh and he may not be able to line up in this game. Davante Adams has remarkable skills and can carry the offense. The Chargers are 20-10 straight up and ATS in their last 30 road games with the Raiders.
Prediction: LA Chargers, Straight Up and ATS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at DALLAS COWBOYS
Point Spread: -6.5
Over-Under: 41.5
Moneyline: New England +245, Dallas -300
The Cowboys were the dominant team in the NFL in the first 2 weeks, but they slept-walked through their trip to the desert and inexplicably lost to the hustling Cardinals. Dak Prescott cannot have any more careless games after misfiring on several attempts. Micah Parsons is likely to be angry, and he will take it out on New England quarterback Mac Jones.
The Patriots have the defense to slow down the Dallas attack, but the offense is not any kind of threat at this point. The Cowboys are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 vs. New England.
Prediction: Dallas, Straight up and ATS
ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Point Spread: -14
Over-Under: 42
Moneyline: Arizona +610, San Francisco -900
The Cardinals are a very interesting team under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon. Not only did they upset the Cowboys in Week 3, they have played well in the first half of all three of their games. Joshua Dobbs completed 17 of 21 vs. the Cowboys and RB James Conner is a bull between the tackles.
While the Cardinals play hard, the 49ers are a sensational team led by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brock Purdy. San Francisco is not likely to be surprised by Arizona after the Cowboys upset, and the Niners will protect their home field. The Cardinals are 6-2 straight up and 5-2-1 in their 8 road games with the Niners.
Prediction: San Francisco, Straight up and ATS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW YORK JETS
Point Spread: +8.5
Over-Under: 43
Moneyline: Kansas City -430, NY Jets +340
The Chiefs have not been at their best in the early part of the season, but they certainly proved they could handle a miserable team like the Bears with ease. While the Jets have many issues on offense, they are a nasty, hard-hitting defensive team that could make life difficult for Patrick Mahomes. TE Travis Kelce knows how to get open against any defense, but the Jets will punish him with hard hits.
The Jets have not recovered from the Aaron Rodgers injury, and it’s unlikely that Zach Wilson will suddenly find the answer against the pass rush of Chris Jones. Breece Hall has the speed to cause issues for Kansas City defense. The Chiefs are 7-2 straight up and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against AFC East opponents.
Prediction: Kansas City, Straight up and ATS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at NEW YORK GIANTS
Point Spread: +1.5
Over-Under: 45
Moneyline: Seattle -120, New York Giants +100
The Seahawks may be one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL. Pete Carroll has a solid offensive team at his disposal, thanks to quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker III. The Seahawks also have a trio of brilliant players in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Giants have struggled out of the gate, and it doesn’t appear that quarterback Daniel Jones has enough firepower to slow down the visitors
Prediction: Seattle, Straight up and ATS
WEEK 4 NFL GAMES BEST BETS & EXPERT PREDICTIONS
BEST BETS NFL THIS WEEK
- Detroit +1.5 over at Green Bay – The Lions have shown some resiliency this season, and they may be able to live up to preseason expectations. If they are going to meet those goals, beating the Packers on the road would help them achieve that goal.
- Miami +2.5 over at Buffalo – The Dolphins are a powerful offensive team, and if they are going to take the AFC East title away from the Bills, they should keep it going here.
- At Philadelphia -3 over Washington – The Eagles only lost 3 regular season games last year, and one was to the Commanders. That’s not going to be repeated here as the Eagles will roll.
