December 6, 2021

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 4 Best 'Monday Night Football' Prop, Team Bets

Week 13 of the NFL season wraps up tonight as the New England Patriots will put their six-game winning streak on the line in Buffalo against the Bills. 

We have a fantastic matchup tonight as the Patriots look to strengthen their lead for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Bills are trying to climb back up the AFC East rankings. 

As always, we have the three best props of the night as well as the best overall bet of the night.

Let's pick out some winners. 

FanDuel: Dawson Knox Over 2.5 Receptions (-178)

The odds here are not great, but this feels like a slam dunk. This is the perfect prop to add to a parlay to juice up the odds. Dawson Knox has been one of the most reliable targets on the Bills, and there has only been one game this season where Knox went under this total, and that game was a blowout win against the Jets, where he received his second-lowest amount of snaps this season.

The Patriots may also be without Kyle Dugger due to COVID, and that will help the Bills as the Patriots are one of the best defenses against tight ends. Even without Dugger, the Patriots are not a team that you can beat by throwing haymakers. On the season, New England's defense is first in scoring, third in yards per play, and fourth in yards per pass.

The Bills are going to have to just take whatever New England's defense gives them, and that means Knox should see a lot of targets tonight. Knox currently averages 4.5 targets per game, and he should see that type of production again tonight.

Barstool: Mac Jones Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-115)

This number feels way too low, but it is with reason. The Patriots have the best defense in the NFL, but the Bills probably have the second-best. Buffalo is second in scoring, first in yards, yards per play, opponents' completion percentage, and yards per pass.

Against the run, Buffalo is very strong, so a dink-and-dunk offense like the Patriots may have some trouble if the Bills can grab an early lead. However, Buffalo will be without Tre'Davious White for the rest of the season, so that dominating pass defense will be without its best player.

A non-explosive offense against a great pass defense could cause trouble especially since Jones has gone under this number three times this season, but those three games were against the Jets, Panthers, and Browns. In those three games, the Patriots outscored those teams 94-19, so Jones was not asked to do a lot. I expect the Bills to still put up points tonight, so the Patriots will have to pass in order to stay in this game.

DraftKings Touchdown Scorer of The Night: Devin Singletary (+180)

The Patriots will not allow the Bills to knock them out with the homerun. They are one of the best teams at limiting yards per play, so the Bills may be a little out of their comfort zone tonight.

Based on the brand of defense that the Patriots play, the Bills will have to score in the red zone tonight. While New England is third in opponents' red zone scoring, the Bills are 12th in red-zone scoring and ninth in rushing touchdowns per game. Devin Singletary has only scored twice this season, and his last touchdown was against the Jets in Week 10, but with Zack Moss starting to fall out of favor, Singletary should see his role continue to increase.

Matt Breida has seen his reps increase as well, but it is pretty clear that Singletary is the guy for the Bills right now. At +180 odds, this is the best value on the board.

Bovada: Best Bet: Bills -3 (+100)

The Patriots are scorching hot lately, but the Bills could be a matchup nightmare. The Patriots have covered in six straight games, and are 8-4 ATS this season, but Buffalo has covered in 13 of their last 20.

The Patriots' calling card is their defense being good enough so that the offense doesn't have to be as good, but against one of the best offenses in football, the Patriots' offense can't be just good enough tonight. Obviously, Jones will have to lead the offense in an unreal atmosphere, but Jones also looked sharp against Tampa Bay during Tom Brady's return to New England, so I don't think the road-primetime factor matters that much.

The only thing that matters in this game is if the Patriots can keep up with the Bills' offense. If that is what it comes down to, I will gladly put my money on the Bills tonight.

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