2024 PGA Championship Odds & Favorites: Guide to Best Bets at Valhalla Golf Club

The second major championship of the year is at hand as the top golfers in the world gather for the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY.

Not a lot has changed since the first major championship was played at Augusta National and the 2024 Masters was completed. Scottie Scheffler was clearly the favorite going in that event and he lived up to that status by winning in decisive fashion.

Scheffler is once again the sports betting favorite to win the PGA Championship and surging Rory McIlroy is the No. 2 choice. Both players should be difficult to beat at long and challenging Valhalla, but there are a slew of other top players including Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Ludvig Aberg. Any of those players could mount a serious challenge to the top two.

Additionally, Tiger Woods is in the field with the hope of making the cut and possibly contending for his 16th major title. Tiger made the cut under challenging conditions at the Masters, but he struggled in the third and fourth rounds. It would not be a shock if he had one or two strong rounds, but it is unlikely the battered and bruised body of Woods would allow him to play well for four straight rounds. Nevertheless, all eyes will be on Tiger throughout the competition.

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Latest 2024 PGA Championship Odds

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Top contenders and favorites

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler is the best golfer in the world at this point. He is on a Tiger Woods-like streak, as he has won four of its last five starts, including the Masters and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also came in second in the Houston Open, the only tournament he did not win in that streak. If his putting is on at the Valhalla Golf Club at Louisville, Kentucky, he will have a great opportunity to win once again. Coming pff the birth of his first child, Scheffler has some of the best odds and is our best bets to win 

Rory  McIlroy

McIlroy is coming fresh off a win and brilliant performance in the Wells Fargo Invitational at Quail Hollow, and his victory in Charlotte, North Carolina should give him new confidence in the PGA Championship.  He won the PGA the last time it was at Valhalla in 2014. McIlory is the most most powerful driver on the PGA Tour, but the rest of his game has not always cooperated when he plays in the biggest tournaments. If he can carry his momentum from Wells Fargo here, he will have an excellent chance to make a run during Sunday's final round.

Brooks Koepka

Koepka remains one of the top golfers in the world, and he is coming off a victory at the LIV Golf Singapore tournament. He is usually at his best on the biggest stages, and he steps up his game when the pressure is highest. He has done very well at this tournament, winning the PGA title last year after previous championships in 2018 and 2019. He is a big hitter, but his clutch iron play and strong putting have earned him seven major championships in his career.

Ludvig Aberg

Aberg has had an excellent year, as the Swedish Sensation had a streak of three top-5 finishes earlier this season, including a second-place finish at Pebble Beach. He has been battling a sore knee recently, and that could have an impact on his ability to come through in the final two rounds if he is in contention early. 

Xander Schauffele

He is playing as well as anyone on the PGA Tour not named Scottie Scheffler. He has eight top-10 finishes this season and is second in FedEx Cup rankings. The problem is he simply can't get the job done when it's winning time. It's a mental block at this point, but he has never won a major and he hasn't been able to earn a victory this season. He finished five strokes behind McIlroy at the Wells Fargo Championship, squandering yet another chance to end up in the winner's circle. 

Jon Rahm

Along with Koepka, he is the best golfer on the LIV Tour and he is certainly capable of rising to the occasion in the PGA Championship. He should be fired up after his poor performance at the Masters in April. He came in as the defending champion but could only finish tied for 45th. When he is at his best, Rahm combines sensational power with superbly accurate iron play.

Bryson DeChambeau

 It was something of a shock when DeChambeau left the PGA Tour for the LIV Tour. He appeared to be one of the game’s most exciting players because of his remarkable power and Mad Scientist’s approach to the way he played the game. He won the 2020 U.S. Open to become a full-fledged star, but he has lost much of his appeal because it is so difficult to follow him when playing in the LIV’s 54-hole tournaments.

Collin Morikawa

Another of the PGA Tour’s big names who will rise to the occasion at the biggest tournaments. He was not having a great year, but he was impressive at the Masters as he finished tied for third during his time at Augusta. Morikawa has two major titles to his credit, and that includes the 2020 PGA Championship. He has six tour victories in 110 career starts and three top-10 finishes this season.

Max Homa 

The major championships appeared to be a form of Kryptonite for Homa, but he hs turned a corner in that area with two Top-10 finishes in his last two attempts. He finished tied for third at the Masters, and he clearly has the all-around game to make a solid impression at Valhalla. The 33-year-old from Burbank, California has three top-10 finishes this season on the PGA Tour.

Joaquin Niemann

The ultra-athletic Niemann was off to a great start early in the year, but he has since cooled down quite a bit. He needs to improve with his flat stick if he is going to have a chance because the 25-year-old from Santiago, Chile is very inconsistent in that area. Still, when Niemann gets hot, he is able to pull off some shots that few of his competitors would attempt.

Cameron Smith

You can’t win a major championship without a consistent putter, and Smith’s ability with his makes him one of the top contenders for this tournament. He has also competed well in the PGA Championship, as the Australian has made the cut in each of the last six years. Smith seems to enjoy the spotlight and could have a real chance if he finds himself in the top 20 at the midway point. 

Viktor Hovland

Even the game's brightest stars can go through slumps, and that's what has happened to Hovland. He has lost his consistency and some of his confidence. He will struggle with his driver in one tournament and then mess up his short game the next. Hovland has fallen to 186th in strokes gained around the greens.

Tiger Woods

Many believe that Tiger is the greatest golfer in the history of the sport, and if he does not hold that title, he is no worse than No. 3 behind Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus. However, he is a 48-year-old golfer competing with much younger men at the peak of their games. Additionally, he has had a myriad of serious injuries. Tiger will command attention at the PGA Championship, but it’s difficult to see him playing well four days in a row. The best Tiger’s fans should hope for is making the cut and a potential top-25 finish.

Wyndham Clark

He struggled quite a bit at the Wells Fargo Championship, but Clark is the defending U.S. Open Champion so there’s little reason to believe that he won’t bounce back to some degree and have an impressive showing at Valhalla. Clark tends to be an all-or-nothing player, so there’s as strong a chance that he fails to make the cut as he does finishing in the top 10.

Tommy Fleetwood

The English star regularly features his accuracy as his strongest characteristic, and that should help him at Valhalla. He has three top-10 finishes this season, and he is 37th in FedEx Cup rankings. He has eight international wins in his career, but none have come in PGA Tour events. He has made the cut in 8 of 9 events this year.

Related Read: Get the complete info on DFS pickem strategy here. 

PGA Championship Betting trends and predictions

Scheffler to win, +400

It’s hard not to back Scottie Scheffler in the PGA Championship because his play has been so sharp throughout the 2024 season. He has been the best player on the tour by a wide margin, and the only question about his game is his putting. If his putting is average, he has a chance to win. If it is good, he will win. If it is below average or poor, the rest of the field has a good chance to win.

McIlroy to finish in top 5, +175

The superstar from Northern Ireland played his best golf in the Wells Fargo Championship, seizing control of the tournament on the final day and beating runner-up Xander Schauffele by five strokes. There is no player that bombs the ball as consistently down the fairway as McIlroy. If his approach shots are solid, he should be in contention and making the top 5 of the tournament appears to be a winning bet.

Will there be a hole in one, Yes +110, No -150

There was no hole in one when the PGA Championship was played at Valhalla in 2014, but there are four par-3 holes on the courses. The 14th hole is 254 yards and it is not the kind of hole that even the best players in the world are going to ace.

However, No. 3 is 208 yards and No. 9 is 190 yards. Both of these are vulnerable. Not necessarily easy, but certainly there’s a chance.

We are backing the “yes” on this prop.

Will there be a playoff, Yes +350, No -600

Any bettor who is backing Scheffler in this tournament will almost certainly go with the “no” option. However, if he is merely good and not great, the other stellar golfers in the field could have a chance to push him to the limit and possibly get to a playoff. As good as Scheffler is, he is still a human being and he’s not perfect. 

We are taking the long-shot bet and saying there will be a playoff in the second major championship of the year.

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PGA Championship course overview

Valhalla Golf Club was designed by Jack Nicklaus, and when it opened in 1986 it was considered a course for big hitters because it was more than 7,000 yards long. It is even longer now as the par 71 course is 7,609 yards, which will make the course play longer than ususal. It has hosted three previous PGA Championships, and those tournaments were won by Mark Brooks, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy.

Similar to Augusta National, every hole on the Louisville, Kentucky course has a nickname. Since Louisville was the birthplace of Muhammad Ali, two of the nicknames are a tribute to the all-time great heavyweight champion. The 8th, a 190-yard par-3 is known as "Float like a Butterfly." The 12th, a 490-yard par-4, is nicknamed "Sting like a Bee."

The other factor is that the previous PGA Championships were played in August under steamy conditions. Valhalla had bent grass fairways in those tournaments, but those fairways have been replaced by zoysia. The reason is that zoysia can be cut tighter, giving golfers a firmer and faster course to play. This championship venue is sure to play fast and full, giving the winner of the PGA Championship an opportunity to gain ground quickly. 

Previous PGA Championship Winners

Who are the top favorites to win the 2024 PGA Championship?

Rory McIlroy's chances at the championship

McIlroy had been largely inconsistent for several months, but his performance at the Wells Fargo Championship was inspirational. He was solid for the first three days of that tournament and spectacular in the final round. His confidence is high as a result, and he should also feel good because he has been victorious at Valhalla in the 2014 PGA Championship. A win would be the opportunity he needs to get back to playing championship golf. 

Scottie Scheffler's recent form and odds

Scheffler is having a spectacular year, similar to the kind of season that the all-time great athletes in the sport had when they were at their peak. The 27-year-old Scheffler comes into the PGA Championship at odds of +400, and his swing is so sharp and on point that it’s difficult to see Scheffler at anything but his best. He won the Masters in April and has three other tournament victories in 2024.

Brooks Koepka's suitability for the Valhalla Golf Club

Koepka may represent the best hope for the LIV Tour in this tournament. Jon Rahm is probably his equal – or at least close to it – but he is not as sharp as Koepka is right now. Koepka is a big hitter with excellent touch, and competition against the best golfers in the world should bring out his best game. He has three PGA Championships to his credit.

How do the odds for the 2024 PGA Championship compare to previous years?

Scheffler, McIlroy and Koepka top this year’s list of favorites, and that’s just a bit different than last year. Scheffler and McIlory were the second and third choices to win at Oak Hill, while Rahm was the top choice. Rahm is the No. 6 choice in this  year’s tournament.

Last year’s PGA Championship odds at Oak Hill, Rochester, New York

Take a look at the opening odds for the most recent PGA Championship of 2023:

Related Read: Guide to betting on sports 101.

What are the major storylines heading into the 2024 PGA Championship?

Tiger Woods returns after making the cut at the Masters

Tiger has 15 career major championships to his credit and has won 82 tournaments in his career. He is one of the greatest players in the history of the sport, and even though injuries and age have clearly taken their toll on Woods, he is still one of the most charismatic and popular players. However, his chances of contending for the title seem remote. The idea of Tiger playing four consecutive impactful rounds is too much to ask. Perhaps he can play one of two good rounds, but his ankle, back and knee injuries won’t allow him to win or even contend in this major championship

The impact of major LIV tour players like Jon Rahm on the tournament

Rahm is a highly skilled player and he shocked the golf world a year ago when he left the PGA Tour for the LIV Tour. There is little doubt about his talent and skill level, but he has not played as well as expected to this point. Brooks Koepka is a hotter player at this point. Bryson DeChambeau has the distance and the all-around game to compete here. Dustin Johnson still ranks as one of the most physically talented players on either tour. Phil Mickelson has the game to provide some major highlights, but consistency is not his strong suit and he could follow a four under par 67 with a six over par 77. Nobody would be surprised at that development.

Analysis of the tournament field and their chances at victory

Scheffler will command attention with every stroke he takes. The new father is expected to pick up where he left off at the Masters. It’s challenging to think he can win back-to-back major championships, but that’s how good his game is now. McIlroy looks like his top challenger after winning the Wells Fargo title. Schauffele contends most weeks, but finding the winner’s circle is a major challenge. Koepka would like to show the golf world he can win another major even though he plays on the LIV Tour. Collin Morikawa and Max Homa should also have a shot at winning. 

Sahith Theegala and Matthew Fittzpatrick are among the non-favorites who could have an opportunity to join the top contenders.