Not sure what bets to make, let us do the heavy lifting for you. Making clients money since 1987, our mission is to provide clients consistent returns to grow your bankroll. We offer football, basketball, baseball and hockey. Packages include:
- Every private play we make easily viewable on our site
- In depth write ups and analysis
- All picks timestamped
- Notified via email when picks are posted
- Purchases are one-time with email receipt provided
|5/26||NBA||DAL vs GS||GS u215.5|
|5/26||MLB||CLE vs DET||DET u7.5|
|5/25||NBA||BOS vs MIA||MIA o204.0|
|5/25||MLB||OAK vs SEA||OAK +155|
|5/25||MLB||MIL vs SD||SD -125|
|5/24||MLB||KC vs ARI||ARI -1.5|
|5/24||NBA||GS vs DAL||DAL u216.0|
|5/23||MLB||TOR vs STL||STL -118|
|5/23||MLB||PHI vs ATL||PHI -110|
|5/23||NBA||MIA vs BOS||BOS -6.5|
We recommend all of our bets straight at whatever your normal betting unit is. In other words, you should bet the same amount of money on every game regardless of what the game is as we only select our most confident games. At Lines.com, there are no special access memberships, each member will receive every play that we release to the site for their package, we all win together. The sports we offer expert picks for are NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB and MLB.
Some important information about our posted picks is listed below.
A picks service is a professional company of handicappers that will give clients pick predictions for a fee. Most of these companies have a subscription model and clients can get picks for days, weeks, years, or seasons. Clients can't get picks for every big sport, including NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. You'll also be able to buy picks from other sports like women's basketball or UFC.
If you're wondering if you should use a picks service, there are a few things you'll want to consider. These are talked about next.
The first thing you'll want to consider is what your budget is. The hard truth is if you're only placing a few small bets a week, like $5 or $10, then buying picks is going to cost you more in the long run. Buying picks is best for those that are betting a lot of money and trying to get some of that back.
The next thing you'll want to consider is your betting style. For starters, you'll want to look at your win-loss ratio. If you're winning more than you're betting and putting your winnings away, then buying picks might be a good investment for you. Keep in mind, though, getting the help of a professional could help you get some of your lost money back.
Finally, consider whether or not you actually need the help of a professional handicapper. Those that already know what they are doing and what they should look for might find that buying picks is a waste of both money and time. It's a great option, though, for those that aren't sure what they are doing and find that they are losing a bunch of money because of that, or those who love betting, but don’t have the time required to analyze each of their bets and make an informed wager.
When using a picks service, there are two things that are super important to know before you start using a picks service. Take a look below to see them.
It's important to know that some people will try and pull a scam on you, especially when it involves betting. Some of the most common scams you should watch out for are listed below.
The other big thing that's important to know is that it's never guaranteed that you'll win. This is true even if the handicapper promises you will because you never know what the outcome of a game will be. If the handicapper claims you'll win regardless of the outcome, you should just walk away, especially if you're doing a simple bet that can only have one of two outcomes.
Sports betting is pervasive throughout the world, and there are many ways to understand it, enjoy it, figure out a system, and win big. No matter how you bet on sports, you should figure out a system and stick to it.
Before we get to the specific sports, there is one major warning prior to learning how to pick winners: do not overreact. If you have a system to pick your winners and find ways to tweak the system here and there, then you will know how to best figure out who will win and lose. So, how do you figure out a system? What statistics should you use?
In football, the important statistics are (1) turnovers, (2) yards, and (3) red zone conversions, but not points. The National Football League’s most successful teams in those three categories are among the best in the league. They each won their division last year. For those looking for football winners, make sure to keep these statistics in mind and we will see how the 2022 season ends.
In basketball, the “Four Factors of Basketball Success,” which were developed by Dean Oliver, are the following: (1) effective field goal percentage, (2) turnover percentage, (3) offensive rebounding percentage, and (4) free throw attempt rate. The four factors are the way to go in the National Basketball Association, and the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers -- the top two Eastern Conference teams last year -- were two of the leaders. In terms of the leader in turnover percentage leader, the Portland Trail Blazers led the way and were a 2020 playoff team.
We have one main statistic for hockey, but it cannot tell the whole story. It will help though. Here is the formula for Corsi: Corsi = (Corsi For) / (Corsi For + Corsi Against).
Corsi For = offensive team shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots
Corsi Against = defensive team shots allowed + missed shots + blocked shots
The National Hockey League’s top eight teams in terms of Corsi made the postseason last year, with the NHL-best Colorado Avalanche finishing with the second-highest Corsi.
For baseball, it is very difficult to predict games. If you are trying to pick winners in Major League Baseball or any baseball league, remember that it will not be easy to determine the winner of full-length MLB games. However, the easiest way to determine the strongest teams is with run differential. For example, the 2020 World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers had a league-best run differential that was 52 runs better than the second-best team. However, in 2021, the seventh-ranked Atlanta Braves won it all.
No matter what statistics that you use, you have to come up with a plan to maximize profits from a money management perspective. Do you have current strategies in place when planning your bets? If not, then the sports knowledge and research you have at your fingertips are all for naught.
Those with an MBA or finance degree may not need to read further, but for everyone else, it is very important to make sure you are making the right money decisions when betting on sports.
To put it simply, if you cannot afford to bet, do not bet. Sports betting is fun -- but unfortunately, it can be a financial burden and it can be addictive. Betting on sports requires the right mindset when placing bets.
High-risk, high-reward bets can be made, but only if you have a bankroll that allows you to make high-risk bets. So, what is a bankroll? A betting bankroll is the amount of money that you plan on betting with, or it can be considered the amount of money that is in your account at a sportsbook. It should be the amount that you are willing to lose because with sports betting, anything can happen.
It is not a bad thing to have a small bankroll, especially at the beginning. Starting small avoids the pitfalls of betting with high stakes, and therefore, losing big. So, bankroll management is important. Poor bankroll management can result in gambling way beyond your means.
Let’s say you win a bunch in a row and your confidence increases. No matter the size of your bankroll, you can make bad decisions as a result. Irrational thinking can set in, and you can lose sight of how best to handle your bankroll. Also, of course, make sure to track your bets throughout the process.
Also, make sure you involve your bankroll in your personal budget. There is no reason to keep them separate because you cannot afford to lose any essential money gambling.
The bankroll discussion is a perfect segue into the “how much money should be placed on a bet” question. There are different ways to approach this question, and those ways include betting with units and a stop-loss limit.
The first of the approaches -- the set percentile strategy, also known as betting based on units -- allows for a value-based strategy. The second approach -- using a stop-loss limit -- prevents bettors from betting too much money.
Let us take a look at each of the strategies in depth:
To avoid betting too big too quickly, one can use the set percentile strategy. This approach has the bettor making each bet based on a unit. If the Chicago Bulls -1.5 bet one night is just as strong as a Green Bay Packers +3 bet another night, those can each have the same number of units applied to them, and therefore, the same-priced bet.
With that example, we can outline your set percentile strategy in this fashion:
Now, that above example is only if you assigned a “unit” to each of those bets though. Not every bet has to be one unit. Let us say your confidence level was about a “six out of 10” for each of those bets, so maybe they deserve 0.5 units ($50) and 0.25 units ($25) for each.
This strategy allows you to understand, track, and communicate your betting strategy well. If you get this approach down, you are in for a good start to your sports betting. Now, let us take a look at a stop-loss limit and see what you think of this strategy:
You just had a great football Sunday during the afternoon, and seven of your eight bets hit and you now have a profit of six units, so are you going to bet big on Sunday night to see if your winning streak continues? Well, not so fast. It is important to consider a stop-loss limit.
What is a stop-loss limit? It is the amount of money you said that you would like to stop at no matter what happens. If you decide that only $100 or $200 is your limit, then that works well. If you are playing every day in a 30-day month, that comes out to $3,000 or $6,000.
There are two types of professional bettors’ stop limits: the session stop-loss and stop win limits. Let us go into both of them:
Both of these limits are very helpful when planning out your sports betting, whether it is with an intense betting day or a casual afternoon with your buddies.
When it comes to the session stop-loss limit, it is very helpful for short periods of time. Additionally, with the stop win limit, you ensure that you do not miss out on those productive days that you hit a decent number of bets. You do not have to go overboard and get greedy when you are on a good streak.
So, what are the ways of placing bets? There are two main stake-based betting strategies:
Let us take that bankroll of $10,000, and we are going to make it simple. Each bet will have the same number of units, so that Bulls bet and that Packers bet each, for instance, will each be one unit.
If you are using a session stop-loss limit of $500 and you place 10 bets, then each bet will be $50 (0.5 units). Make that into a two-session day and you have placed 20 bets for a total of $1,000.
Fixed stakes make it easy. Here are the calculations:
Winnings = Odds * Stake
Total Return for Win = Winnings + Stake
Here are the most common scenarios that relate to fixed stakes:
We just went through the fixed stake approach and the simplicity of it in terms of keeping track of bets. However, the variable stake betting is not as simple:
Instead of placing the same number of units on each bet, you will have to understand the value of each bet you are placing for betting with variable stakes. You will have to apply more research to your variable stake betting.
Overall, both methods work, but you will have to put more time and effort into the variable stake approach. Both are effective, but maybe you start with the fixed stake approach before heading over to the variable stake strategy.
Scientist John L. Kelly created the Kelly Criterion in 1956, and it involves your bankroll, the sportsbook odds, the probability of winning, and how conservative you want to be with your betting. The calculation, which can be found on many websites like this one, tells you how much you should bet.
For example, for the most aggressive bettor (10 out of 10), a +125 odds bet with a 50 percent probability of winning should get a 10 percent bet. So, if your bankroll is $10,000, that would be a $1,000 bet.
The least aggressive bettor (one out of 10) would only bet $100 (1 percent) on a bet like this, so you can tell there is a lot of wiggle room here.
As you could see, if an inexperienced bettor only used the Kelly Criterion, he or she could be in hot water quickly.
For instance, a big favorite has the odds of +200 and the probability of winning is 60 percent, which equates to a 40 percent ($4,000) bet for a $10,000 bankroll. Imagine losing 40 percent with just one bet.
There are many reasons to use the Kelly Criterion as a guide and not the rule to betting, and that example is exhibit A. Understandably, that example is for the most aggressive of bettors, so the hypothetical person that lost that bet most likely did not do their research well.
However, what happens if he or she did the correct research and was winning the whole way of the game, and then a bad beat happened. A “bad beat” is often described as when an end-of-game 3-pointer, touchdown, or bad call by a referee or umpire changes the betting landscape of the game without affecting the final result on the field or court.
Bad beats happen, and as a result, you should be prepared to lose any bet at almost any time, and that is why we have the strategies. Remember, anything can happen.
In sports, anything can happen practically in any game or match. Whether there is an injury or an ejection, or some sort of human error involved in a call by a referee, anything can happen, so the aforementioned money management strategies are there for you to avoid degeneracy and bankruptcy.
Sports are extremely fun to enjoy watching and sports betting is fun as well. People enjoy many different types of betting, and it can come in many different ways. No matter the sport and no matter the type of gambling, nothing is a sure thing, so remember to have fun, but do not overdo it. Follow the money management strategies and you will be able to keep yourself in check and hopefully win.