All Sports Picks Package

A picks service is a professional company of handicappers that will give clients pick predictions for a fee. Most of these companies have a subscription model and clients can get picks for days, weeks, years, or seasons. Clients can't get picks for every big sport, including NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. You'll also be able to buy picks from other sports like women's basketball or UFC.

If you're wondering if you should use a picks service, there are a few things you'll want to consider. These are talked about next.

The first thing you'll want to consider is what your budget is. The hard truth is if you're only placing a few small bets a week, like $5 or $10, then buying picks is going to cost you more in the long run. Buying picks is best for those that are betting a lot of money and trying to get some of that back.

The next thing you'll want to consider is your betting style. For starters, you'll want to look at your win-loss ratio. If you're winning more than you're betting and putting your winnings away, then buying picks might be a good investment for you. Keep in mind, though, getting the help of a professional could help you get some of your lost money back.

Finally, consider whether or not you actually need the help of a professional handicapper. Those that already know what they are doing and what they should look for might find that buying picks is a waste of both money and time. It's a great option, though, for those that aren't sure what they are doing and find that they are losing a bunch of money because of that, or those who love betting, but don’t have the time required to analyze each of their bets and make an informed wager.

When using a picks service, there are two things that are super important to know before you start using a picks service. Take a look below to see them.

Scams

It's important to know that some people will try and pull a scam on you, especially when it involves betting. Some of the most common scams you should watch out for are listed below.

• Advertising a free week but then requiring you to sign up for a certain number of weeks before you'll get it.
• Giving half of the people one team and giving the other half the other team.
• ●Saying a game that's at least a month away will be the Game of the Year because the handicapper can't see the lines on the game.

Not Guaranteed

The other big thing that's important to know is that it's never guaranteed that you'll win. This is true even if the handicapper promises you will because you never know what the outcome of a game will be. If the handicapper claims you'll win regardless of the outcome, you should just walk away, especially if you're doing a simple bet that can only have one of two outcomes.

In football, the important statistics are (1) turnovers, (2) yards, and (3) red zone conversions, but not points. The National Football League’s most successful teams in those three categories are among the best in the league. They each won their division last year. For those looking for football winners, make sure to keep these statistics in mind and we will see how the 2022 season ends.

In basketball, the “Four Factors of Basketball Success,” which were developed by Dean Oliver, are the following: (1) effective field goal percentage, (2) turnover percentage, (3) offensive rebounding percentage, and (4) free throw attempt rate. The four factors are the way to go in the National Basketball Association, and the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers -- the top two Eastern Conference teams last year -- were two of the leaders. In terms of the leader in turnover percentage leader, the Portland Trail Blazers led the way and were a 2020 playoff team.

We have one main statistic for hockey, but it cannot tell the whole story. It will help though. Here is the formula for Corsi: Corsi = (Corsi For) / (Corsi For + Corsi Against).

Corsi For = offensive team shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots

Corsi Against = defensive team shots allowed + missed shots + blocked shots

The National Hockey League’s top eight teams in terms of Corsi made the postseason last year, with the NHL-best Colorado Avalanche finishing with the second-highest Corsi.

For baseball, it is very difficult to predict games. If you are trying to pick winners in Major League Baseball or any baseball league, remember that it will not be easy to determine the winner of full-length MLB games. However, the easiest way to determine the strongest teams is with run differential. For example, the 2020 World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers had a league-best run differential that was 52 runs better than the second-best team. However, in 2021, the seventh-ranked Atlanta Braves won it all.

No matter what statistics that you use, you have to come up with a plan to maximize profits from a money management perspective. Do you have current strategies in place when planning your bets? If not, then the sports knowledge and research you have at your fingertips are all for naught.

Those with an MBA or finance degree may not need to read further, but for everyone else, it is very important to make sure you are making the right money decisions when betting on sports.

To put it simply, if you cannot afford to bet, do not bet. Sports betting is fun -- but unfortunately, it can be a financial burden and it can be addictive. Betting on sports requires the right mindset when placing bets.

High-risk, high-reward bets can be made, but only if you have a bankroll that allows you to make high-risk bets. So, what is a bankroll? A betting bankroll is the amount of money that you plan on betting with, or it can be considered the amount of money that is in your account at a sportsbook. It should be the amount that you are willing to lose because with sports betting, anything can happen.

It is not a bad thing to have a small bankroll, especially at the beginning. Starting small avoids the pitfalls of betting with high stakes, and therefore, losing big. So, bankroll management is important. Poor bankroll management can result in gambling way beyond your means.

Let’s say you win a bunch in a row and your confidence increases. No matter the size of your bankroll, you can make bad decisions as a result. Irrational thinking can set in, and you can lose sight of how best to handle your bankroll. Also, of course, make sure to track your bets throughout the process.

Also, make sure you involve your bankroll in your personal budget. There is no reason to keep them separate because you cannot afford to lose any essential money gambling.

The bankroll discussion is a perfect segue into the “how much money should be placed on a bet” question. There are different ways to approach this question, and those ways include betting with units and a stop-loss limit.

The first of the approaches -- the set percentile strategy, also known as betting based on units -- allows for a value-based strategy. The second approach -- using a stop-loss limit -- prevents bettors from betting too much money.

Let us take a look at each of the strategies in depth:

1. The Set Percentile Strategy: Calculating Bets Based on Units

To avoid betting too big too quickly, one can use the set percentile strategy. This approach has the bettor making each bet based on a unit. If the Chicago Bulls -1.5 bet one night is just as strong as a Green Bay Packers +3 bet another night, those can each have the same number of units applied to them, and therefore, the same-priced bet.

With that example, we can outline your set percentile strategy in this fashion:

1. First, you take your total bankroll -- let’s say it is $10,000 -- and divide it into 100 units, so each unit is $100.
2. At $100 per unit, this means that the Bulls -1.5 bet and the Packers +3 bet could be $100 (one unit) each. For simplicity purposes, let us say that they are one unit apiece. So, there is $200 (two units) of our $10,000 (100-unit) bankroll used on those two bets.
3. With those bets being placed, you have now used two of the 100 units you were planning on using with your bankroll. We cannot assume victories, so at this point, you have 98 units ($9,800) left and you should be wise about how you use the remainder of your units and how you assign those units, half-units, or quarter-units.

Now, that above example is only if you assigned a “unit” to each of those bets though. Not every bet has to be one unit. Let us say your confidence level was about a “six out of 10” for each of those bets, so maybe they deserve 0.5 units ($50) and 0.25 units ($25) for each.

This strategy allows you to understand, track, and communicate your betting strategy well. If you get this approach down, you are in for a good start to your sports betting. Now, let us take a look at a stop-loss limit and see what you think of this strategy:

2. The Stop-Loss Limit and How You Can Apply This to Your Betting Strategy

You just had a great football Sunday during the afternoon, and seven of your eight bets hit and you now have a profit of six units, so are you going to bet big on Sunday night to see if your winning streak continues? Well, not so fast. It is important to consider a stop-loss limit.

What is a stop-loss limit? It is the amount of money you said that you would like to stop at no matter what happens. If you decide that only $100 or $200 is your limit, then that works well. If you are playing every day in a 30-day month, that comes out to $3,000 or $6,000.

There are two types of professional bettors’ stop limits: the session stop-loss and stop win limits. Let us go into both of them:

1. 1.Session Stop-Loss Limit: this limit is based on one period of time in which you are betting. If you plan on spending $100 during a session, you can play that $100 in whatever way you would like, but during that time period, you will only use the $100. The session stop-loss limit can be used well with the set percentile strategy if you would like.
2. 2.Stop Win Limit: this limit prevents you from getting too greedy. Let us use that example from earlier when you won a lot on a Sunday, and those winnings are now at $1,500. Maybe that was what you decided your stop win limit would be. If so, you are done for the day in terms of betting. Give yourself a pat on the pack because you just left on a high note.

Both of these limits are very helpful when planning out your sports betting, whether it is with an intense betting day or a casual afternoon with your buddies.

When it comes to the session stop-loss limit, it is very helpful for short periods of time. Additionally, with the stop win limit, you ensure that you do not miss out on those productive days that you hit a decent number of bets. You do not have to go overboard and get greedy when you are on a good streak.

So, what are the ways of placing bets? There are two main stake-based betting strategies:

Fixed Stake

Let us take that bankroll of $10,000, and we are going to make it simple. Each bet will have the same number of units, so that Bulls bet and that Packers bet each, for instance, will each be one unit.

If you are using a session stop-loss limit of $500 and you place 10 bets, then each bet will be $50 (0.5 units). Make that into a two-session day and you have placed 20 bets for a total of $1,000.

Calculating Your Potential Profits with Fixed Stakes

Fixed stakes make it easy. Here are the calculations:

Winnings = Odds * Stake
Total Return for Win = Winnings + Stake

Here are the most common scenarios that relate to fixed stakes:

• A.Odds-On means you are betting the favorite. For example, a money line bet of a favorite would be an odds-on bet. If the odds were 0.25 (1/4) and you placed two units, it would be 0.25 * 2 units = 0.5 units. There is a total return of 2.5 units, as the profit would be 0.5 units and you would retain the two units you bet.
• B.Odds-Even means the bet has 50-50 odds. For example, a bet of a football pick’em game where the spread is zero points could be an odds-even bet. A bet of one unit placed in an odds-even scenario would garner a total return of two units.
• C.Odds-Against means you are betting the underdog; these are the long-shot bets that can pay a huge dividend. For example, a bet on a winless football team would most likely be an odds-against bet. If that team is 10-to-1 odds (10/1), then a bet of five units would bring in an impressive amount: 10 * 5 units = 50 units. The total return is 55 units here.

We just went through the fixed stake approach and the simplicity of it in terms of keeping track of bets. However, the variable stake betting is not as simple:

2.Variable Stake

Instead of placing the same number of units on each bet, you will have to understand the value of each bet you are placing for betting with variable stakes. You will have to apply more research to your variable stake betting.

Overall, both methods work, but you will have to put more time and effort into the variable stake approach. Both are effective, but maybe you start with the fixed stake approach before heading over to the variable stake strategy.

Scientist John L. Kelly created the Kelly Criterion in 1956, and it involves your bankroll, the sportsbook odds, the probability of winning, and how conservative you want to be with your betting. The calculation, which can be found on many websites like this one, tells you how much you should bet.

For example, for the most aggressive bettor (10 out of 10), a +125 odds bet with a 50 percent probability of winning should get a 10 percent bet. So, if your bankroll is $10,000, that would be a $1,000 bet.

The least aggressive bettor (one out of 10) would only bet $100 (1 percent) on a bet like this, so you can tell there is a lot of wiggle room here.

Use the Kelly Criterion as a Guide to Betting, But Not as a Hard and Fast Rule

As you could see, if an inexperienced bettor only used the Kelly Criterion, he or she could be in hot water quickly.

For instance, a big favorite has the odds of +200 and the probability of winning is 60 percent, which equates to a 40 percent ($4,000) bet for a $10,000 bankroll. Imagine losing 40 percent with just one bet.

There are many reasons to use the Kelly Criterion as a guide and not the rule to betting, and that example is exhibit A. Understandably, that example is for the most aggressive of bettors, so the hypothetical person that lost that bet most likely did not do their research well.

However, what happens if he or she did the correct research and was winning the whole way of the game, and then a bad beat happened. A “bad beat” is often described as when an end-of-game 3-pointer, touchdown, or bad call by a referee or umpire changes the betting landscape of the game without affecting the final result on the field or court.

Bad beats happen, and as a result, you should be prepared to lose any bet at almost any time, and that is why we have the strategies. Remember, anything can happen.

In sports, anything can happen practically in any game or match. Whether there is an injury or an ejection, or some sort of human error involved in a call by a referee, anything can happen, so the aforementioned money management strategies are there for you to avoid degeneracy and bankruptcy.

Sports are extremely fun to enjoy watching and sports betting is fun as well. People enjoy many different types of betting, and it can come in many different ways. No matter the sport and no matter the type of gambling, nothing is a sure thing, so remember to have fun, but do not overdo it. Follow the money management strategies and you will be able to keep yourself in check and hopefully win.