Politics CongressCourtsEpsteinGazaGlobal ElectionsGovernment ShutdownsIsraelMidtermsNYC MayorPrimariesSenateTrumpUkraineUS ElectionVenezuela Market of the Day Trump approval Up or Down this week? $470 Volume ↑ 41.5% today View Market Buy Yes · 89¢ Buy No · 11¢ 89% Yes chance Yes 89% No 11% Read Article Sort by 24hr Volume Volume Newest Ending Soon Resolved US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? 100% chance Yes No Resolved Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner PB 100% Yes No DPS 0% Yes No Resolved # of seats won by TISZA in Hungary parliamentary election? 130+ 100% Yes No 70–79 0% Yes No Resolved Turnout in 2026 Hungary Parliamentary Election 77–80% 100% Yes No 74–77% 0% Yes No Resolved # of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary parliamentary election? <70 100% Yes No 70-84 0% Yes No Resolved US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? 93% chance Yes No Resolved US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Will Ken Paxton drop out? 0% chance Yes No Resolved New Jersey Republican Senate Primary Winner Justin Murphy 99% Yes No Alex Zdan 13% Yes No Resolved Will VIX close above 50 by June 30? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? Pam Bondi 100% Yes No Marco Rubio 0% Yes No Resolved Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory Tisza 9%+ 99% Yes No Tisza 0-3% 0% Yes No Resolved Hungary Parliamentary Election: Popular Vote Winner Tisza 100% Yes No Other 0% Yes No Resolved Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? 0% chance Yes No Resolved Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? Kevin Warsh 100% Yes No Judy Shelton 0% Yes No Resolved What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed? US x Iran Ceasefire 100% Yes No New Supreme Leader of Iran 100% Yes No Resolved US announces military support of Iran opposition by…? April 30 0% Yes No March 31 0% Yes No Resolved US announces military support of Kurds by…? April 30 0% Yes No March 31 0% Yes No Resolved Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by…? June 30 100% Yes No April 30 100% Yes No Resolved Next leader out of power before 2027? Orbán – Hungary PM 100% Yes No Macron – France President 0% Yes No Resolved Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on…? March 3 100% Yes No March 4 100% Yes No Resolved Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by…? April 30 0% March 31 0% April 30 March 31 Resolved What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31? Nuclear 100% Yes No Oil/Gas 100% Yes No Resolved Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by …? June 30 100% Yes No May 31 100% Yes No Resolved US x Iran ceasefire by…? April 30 100% Yes No December 31 100% Yes No Resolved Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? 100% chance Yes No Resolved GA-08 Republican Primary Winner Austin Scott 100% Yes No Vinson Watkins 0% Yes No Resolved How many times will the US take military action against Somalia in March? 6-9 100% Yes No 10-13 0% Yes No Resolved Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? 0% chance Yes No Previous 1 … 46 47 48 49 50 51 Next Loading… Volume Liquidity Ends Outcomes Description Resolution Rules View on
