We track whether prediction markets price real-world outcomes correctly. Updated with every resolution.
Updated June 10, 2026
A well-calibrated prediction market should resolve in line with its stated probabilities. When markets price an event at 70%, that event should actually happen roughly 70% of the time. The chart below tests this by grouping all resolved markets into probability buckets (10%, 20%, etc.) and comparing the implied probability to the actual resolution rate.
A perfectly calibrated market sits exactly on the diagonal line. Points above the line indicate the market underestimated the true probability — the event happened more often than expected. Points below the line indicate overestimation — the market was too confident. The size of each point reflects how many markets fall into that bucket, giving you a sense of statistical confidence.
How well do prediction markets perform across different topics? The table below breaks down our track record by category. Note that accuracy rate is calculated only for markets where the implied probability was 60% or higher at publication — this filters out coin-flip markets (priced 45-55%) that would artificially distort the score. Categories with fewer than 10 resolved markets are still building data and shown separately.
Every market we cover gets scored after resolution. Here are the most recent outcomes, showing how the market priced each event and whether that prediction proved correct.
The Brier score measures prediction accuracy. It's calculated as (probability - outcome)². A score of 0 is perfect, 0.25 is random guessing, and 1 is always wrong. Lower is better. For reference, superforecasters from the Good Judgment Project typically achieve Brier scores around 0.15-0.20.
We count a prediction as "correct" when the market assigned >60% probability and the outcome matched (or <40% and it didn't happen). Markets priced 45-55% are classified as coin flips and excluded from the headline accuracy rate. This filters out genuine toss-ups that would artificially distort the score.
The tracker refreshes automatically after every market resolution. The calibration chart shows whether markets are well-calibrated — if 70% predictions resolve Yes 70% of the time, the market is perfectly calibrated.
Add prediction market accuracy stats to your articles with a single line of code. Our embeddable widget automatically updates with live data from Lines.com's accuracy tracker.
Elections, policy decisions, and political events tracked with real-time odds.
Game outcomes, championships, and player props from major leagues.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and cryptocurrency price predictions and milestones.
Weather events, climate milestones, and environmental policy predictions.
