We track whether prediction markets price real-world outcomes correctly. Updated with every resolution.
Updated July 26, 2026
Our calibration chart is being rebuilt. We're re-scoring resolved markets to exclude auto-generated high-frequency markets and markets that were already decided at publication, so the curve reflects genuine forecasts rather than settled contracts. Check back soon.
How well do prediction markets perform across different topics? The table below breaks down our track record by category. Note that accuracy rate is calculated only for confident markets — those priced at 60% or higher, or 40% or lower, at publication (a clear lean either way) — which filters out coin-flip markets (priced 40-60%) that would artificially distort the score. Categories with fewer than 10 resolved markets are still building data and shown separately.
Every market we cover gets scored after resolution. Here are the most recent outcomes, showing how the market priced each event and whether that prediction proved correct.
The Brier score measures prediction accuracy. It's calculated as (probability - outcome)². A score of 0 is perfect, 0.25 is random guessing, and 1 is always wrong. Lower is better. For reference, superforecasters from the Good Judgment Project typically achieve Brier scores around 0.15-0.20.
We count a prediction as "correct" when the market assigned >60% probability and the outcome matched (or <40% and it didn't happen). Markets priced between 40% and 60% are classified as coin flips and excluded from the headline accuracy rate. This filters out genuine toss-ups that would artificially distort the score.
The tracker refreshes automatically after every market resolution. The calibration chart shows whether markets are well-calibrated — if 70% predictions resolve Yes 70% of the time, the market is perfectly calibrated.
Add prediction market accuracy stats to your articles with a single line of code. Our embeddable widget automatically updates with live data from Lines.com's accuracy tracker.
Elections, policy decisions, and political events tracked with real-time odds.
Game outcomes, championships, and player props from major leagues.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and cryptocurrency price predictions and milestones.
Weather events, climate milestones, and environmental policy predictions.
