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Politics

Market of the Day

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

$470 Volume ↑ 41.5% today
89% Yes chance
Yes 89%
No 11%
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Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Noel Thomas 48%
Seán Kyne 32%
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GA-05 Democratic Primary Winner

Nikema Williams 99%
Andres Castro 1%
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Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

1040-1079 100%
<20 0%
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Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 79%
Janice Boylan 17%
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Farrer By-Election Winner

David Farley 100%
Rebecca Scriven 0%
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Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

0% chance
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When will the US next strike Iran? (Week)

February 22-28 100%
March 1-7 0%
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# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?

4 100%
5 0%
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Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by…?

December 31 100%
June 30 100%
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How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?

10–15s 100%
15s+ 0%
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TX-19 Republican Primary Winner

Tom Sell 99%
Abraham Enriquez 1%
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TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner

Colin Allred 100%
Carlos Quintanilla 0%
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Another critical Cloudflare incident by…?

April 30 100%
May 31 100%
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UK Cabinet Minister resigns by…?

June 30 100%
May 31 100%
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Don Lemon charges dropped?

0% chance
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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by…?

June 30 100%
May 15 100%
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Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Lisa Murkowski 100%
Kevin Cramer 100%
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U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by…?

June 30 88%
March 31 0%
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How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

54 100%
55 0%
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US forces enter Iran by..?

December 31 100%
April 30 100%
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Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by…?

April 15 100%
March 31 100%
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

100% chance
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Santa Cruz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)

Juan Pablo Velasco 100%
Juan Carlos Medrano 0%
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Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner

TVK 100%
AITC 0%
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Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner

INC 100%
BSP 0%
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Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

100% chance
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Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?

100% chance
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Tulsi Gabbard out by…?

June 30 19%
March 31 0%
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IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Joe Mitchell 100%
Charlie McClintock 2%
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TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

Everett Jackson 100%
Sholdon Daniels 0%
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U.S. strike on Nigeria by…?

June 30 99%
December 31 0%
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Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by…?

May 31 100%
June 30 100%
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Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

100% chance