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Market of the Day

Lowest temperature in Paris on June 16?

$15.9k Volume ↑ 68% today
19°C 97% Yes No
18°C 2% Yes No
17°C 1% Yes No
+8 more
97% Leading
19°C 97%
18°C 2%
17°C 1%
+8 more
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Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

December 31 36%
May 30 0%

Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO before 2028 52%
75B–100B 12%

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by…?

December 31 34%
June 30 5%

Insurrection Act invoked by…?

December 31 18%
June 30 2%

Israel military action against Yemen by…?

June 30 8%
March 31 0%

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by…?

March 31 100%
June 30 100%

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Hong Wang 83%
Jacob Tsimerman 75%

Next Las Vegas Raiders Head Coach?

Klint Kubiak 100%
Robert Saleh 0%

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

2% chance

Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?

Train 100%
Overpass 3%

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

340–354 30%
325–339 26%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

↑ $7,450 100%
↑ $7,050 100%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

↑ $7,600 100%
↓ $6,600 100%

Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?

0% chance

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

12% chance

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1m 100%
1.1m 95%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 59%
New People (NL) 31%

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by…?

December 31, 2027 74%
June 30, 2027 52%

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-159 59%
160-179 12%

Masoud Pezeshkian out by…?

December 31 22%
June 30 1%

Flying Tulip FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$800M 100%
$400M 100%

How many SCOTUS justices rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

3 100%
1 0%

Will Tread launch a token by ___?

December 31, 2027 87%
December 31, 2026 64%

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

13% chance
Moving Now

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jay Feely 69%
Joseph Chaplik 46%

Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Adam Hamilton 79%
Damon Anderson 14%

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Arizona 100%
Connecticut 100%

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Michele Tafoya 93%
Royce White 35%

Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner

Victor Marx 71%
Barbara Kirkmeyer 25%
Moving Now

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Francesca Hong 44%
Mandela Barnes 36%

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner

John James 61%
Perry Johnson 16%

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Tom Begich 96%
Bernadette Wilson 75%

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 190 29%
190-194 19%

Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?

Patrick Mahomes 91%
Alana Haim 89%

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47 28%
51 18%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Keiko Fujimori 99%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 0%

Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner

LPV 30%
JV 25%

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

5% chance

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

21% chance

Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30?

0% chance

New pandemic in 2026?

11% chance
Moving Now

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

13% chance

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

16% chance

Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?

14% chance

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

11% chance

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

9% chance

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by…?

December 31, 2026 33%
June 30, 2026 4%

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Shannon Bird 44%
Manny Rutinel 31%

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