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Market of the Day

Lowest temperature in Paris on June 16?

$15.9k Volume ↑ 66.9% today
19°C 97% Yes No
18°C 2% Yes No
17°C 1% Yes No
+8 more
97% Leading
19°C 97%
18°C 2%
17°C 1%
+8 more
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Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

7% chance

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 96%
Matt Strickler 7%

NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Stefany Shaheen 78%
Heath Howard 25%

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by…?

December 31 48%
June 30 0%

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

1% chance

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

2% chance
Moving Now

Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$1.5B 18%
$500M 17%
Moving Now

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Wesley Bell 46%
Cori Bush 43%

Ostium FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$100M 44%
$300M 25%

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Ben McAdams 87%
Nate Blouin 14%

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds 92%
James Fishback 7%
Moving Now

Florida Governor Democratic Primary Winner

David Jolly 91%
Angie Nixon 15%
Moving Now

Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$80M 43%
$200M 18%

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

35% chance

Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$70M 71%
$150M 24%

Will Russia enter Borova by…?

June 30 13%
December 31 0%

EU dissolves before 2027?

3% chance
Moving Now

New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Chris Pappas 59%
Karishma Manzur 38%

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

7% chance

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

71% chance

Will Theo launch a token by ___ ?

December 31, 2026 52%
September 30, 2026 50%

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

6% chance

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

5% chance

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Bert Mizusawa 73%
Kim Farington 16%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by…?

June 30 6%
December 31 0%
Moving Now

Theo FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$100M 71%
$300M 59%

Another Elon baby by June 30?

4% chance
Moving Now

Pacifica FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$2B 32%
$3B 25%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

36% chance

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$150M 72%
$300M 44%
Moving Now

Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M 54%
$500M 49%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k 100%
↑2k 100%

Will fomo.family launch a token by ___ ?

December 31, 2027 40%
December 31, 2026 29%

Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?

2% chance
Moving Now

MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Matt Little 70%
Matt Klein 18%
Moving Now

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

48% chance

Will Paradex launch a token by ___?

April 30, 2026 100%
May 31, 2026 100%

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

88% chance

Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Jack Reed 92%
Connor Burbridge 25%

Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?

13% chance

Yoon Suk Yeol Insurrection Case Prison Time?

30+ Years 100%
No Prison Time 0%

Quebec General Election Winner

PQ 58%
PLQ 25%
Moving Now

Berlin State Election Winner

CDU 36%
Grüne 22%

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

100% chance

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?

8% chance
Moving Now

New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary Winner

John E. Sununu 83%
Chris Sununu 7%

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Ed Markey 71%
Seth Moulton 50%

Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?

5% chance

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