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Market of the Day

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

$5k Volume ↓ 90.5% today
Office Romance 5% Yes No
Creed III 1% Yes No
Ticket To Paradise (2022) 1% Yes No
+8 more
5% Leading
Office Ro… 5%
Creed III 1%
Ticket To… 1%
+8 more
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Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?

57-60% 98%
48-51% 3%

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

19% chance

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

10% chance

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) – Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2

Match Winner 100%
Game 1 Winner 100%

Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026?

67% chance

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

35% chance

Total crypto hack value in 2026?

>$800M 100%
>$1B 95%

Another crypto hack over $100M by ___?

December 31 77%
September 30 61%

Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?

Ashley Avignone 74%
Gigi Hadid 69%

Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?

69% chance

Will Russia capture Myropillia by…?

July 31 5%
May 31 0%

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by…?

July 31 28%
May 31 0%

LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) – LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2

Match Winner 100%
Game 1 Winner 100%

Club ABB vs. Club Independiente Petrolero

Club ABB 55%
Draw (Club ABB vs. Club Independiente Petrolero) 50%

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

0% chance

NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner

Jordan Staal 56%
Mitch Marner 26%

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by…?

July 31 13%
June 30 7%

President of Andalusia after election?

Juanma Moreno 97%
Antonio Maíllo 1%

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by…?

June 30 10%
April 17 0%

Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?

Shakira 97%
Coldplay 66%

Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Avengers: Doomsday 74%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 25%

Hotstuff FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M 53%
$20M 52%

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 76%
Melissa Hernandez 40%

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

Xavier Becerra 99%
Steve Hilton 0%

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

16% chance

California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?

6% chance

Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?

3% chance

GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo

CD Real Tomayapo 49%
GV CD San José 47%
Moving Now

Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?

Israel 15%
China 10%

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Anthropic 90%
Google 7%

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 88%
Google 8%

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by…?

June 30 10%
April 30 0%

Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?

7% chance
Moving Now

FedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner

Cameron Young 28%
Scottie Scheffler 20%

Will Charli XCX release a new original album by July 31?

98% chance

Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$80M 51%
$300M 49%

NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 21%
Florida Gators 20%

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

6% chance

Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July?

5% chance

Will T1 make a roster change before July?

5% chance

Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by…?

August 30 9%
June 30 2%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?

Increase 83%
No Change 16%

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

6% chance

Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30?

7% chance

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by ___?

December 31, 2027 19%
December 31, 2026 9%
Moving Now

Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July?

73% chance

Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?

300k-350k 42%
350k-400k 40%

Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Marquita Bradshaw 70%
Maria Brewer 17%

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