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Market of the Day

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

$5k Volume ↓ 90.3% today
Office Romance 5% Yes No
Creed III 1% Yes No
Ticket To Paradise (2022) 1% Yes No
+8 more
5% Leading
Office Ro… 5%
Creed III 1%
Ticket To… 1%
+8 more
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What price will edgeX hit in 2026?

↑ $1.40 100%
↑ $1.20 100%

Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

1% chance

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 100%
1550 83%
Moving Now

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by June 30?

1550 13%
1570 8%

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 81%
1580 54%

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

9% chance

American Hockey League: Winner

Chicago Wolves 50%
Toronto Marlies 48%
Moving Now

Liga Endesa: Winner

Valencia Basket 73%
FC Barcelona 42%

Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?

72% chance

Turkey BSL: Winner

Beşiktaş Gain 48%
Fenerbahçe Beko 43%
Moving Now

Greek Basketball League: Winner

Olympiacos Piraeus 100%
Aris Thessaloniki 0%

Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?

4% chance

Bolivia LFPB: Winner

Bolívar 49%
Aurora 49%

Brazil Série B: Winner

Novorizontino 49%
Botafogo-SP 48%
Moving Now

Brazil Série A: Winner

Palmeiras 51%
Flamengo 26%
Moving Now

Who will win Big Brother Argentina 2026?

Cinzia Francischiello 43%
Emanuel Di Gioia 42%

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by…?

December 31 41%
June 30 1%

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

3% chance

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22% chance

How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?

70% 100%
80% 100%

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?

15% chance

EPL: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League

Brighton & Hove Albion 95%
Aston Villa 0%

Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?

Railbird 100%
CME 100%

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow 82%
Brad Bradford 17%

Aligned Layer FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$20M 89%
$50M 81%

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

13% chance

Fuse Energy FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$800M 46%
$2B 43%

Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?

16% chance

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by…?

December 31 19%
July 31 6%

Will Fuse Energy launch a token by ___?

June 30, 2027 74%
September 30, 2027 50%

Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?

Lucy 48%
Sesh 46%

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

47% chance

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30?

1% chance

SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

96% chance

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

14% chance

MLB: Scorigami in 2026?

6% chance

Bank of Israel Decision in July?

Decrease 72%
No Change 27%

MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season?

14% chance

Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M 92%
$100M 81%

Clavicular sentenced to prison?

16% chance

Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?

2% chance

Will at least 2 of the next 3 Bitcoin hourly candles be up?

100% chance
Moving Now

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

44% chance

Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

18% chance

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?

December 31 36%
July 31 9%
Moving Now

MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner

Pete Crow-Armstrong 43%
Nico Hoerner 11%

MLB: AL Platinum Glove Winner

Bobby Witt Jr. 47%
Ceddanne Rafaela 11%
Moving Now

MLB: Outstanding DH Winner

Yordan Alvarez 34%
Kyle Schwarber 22%

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