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Market of the Day

Fed Decision in July?

$5.5m Volume ↓ 7.9% today

No change 74% Yes No

25 bps increase 25% Yes No

50+ bps increase 1% Yes No

+2 more

74% Leading

No change 74%

25 bps in… 25%

50+ bps i… 1%

+2 more

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UFC: Who will Gabriel Bonfim Fight Next?

Sean Brady 48%

Yes No

Carlos Prates 45%

Yes No

$623 Vol.

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Bricks & Minifigs CEO fired/resigns by July 31?

28% chance

Yes No

$207 Vol.

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Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by…?

July 31 2%

Yes No

June 30 0%

Yes No

$4k Vol.

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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

DET 53%

CLE 48%

DET CLE

$164k Vol.

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Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

December 31 31%

Yes No

August 31 8%

Yes No

$942k Vol.

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Who will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?

Pablo Picasso 55%

Yes No

Other 45%

Yes No

$9k Vol.

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Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?

13% chance

Yes No

$25k Vol.

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Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by…?

September 30 18%

Yes No

July 31 4%

Yes No

$18k Vol.

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Moving Now

Will Russia enter Stavky by…?

September 30 59%

Yes No

June 30 0%

Yes No

$22k Vol.

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Will Russia capture Stavky by…?

September 30 20%

Yes No

July 31 2%

Yes No

$95k Vol.

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Pro Football: Aaron Donald to sign with any team before 2026-27 Regular Season?

50% chance

Yes No

$14k Vol.

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Zambia Presidential Election Winner

Hakainde Hichilema 88%

Yes No

Brian Mundubile 12%

Yes No

$111k Vol.

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Moving Now

GA-13 Special Election Winner

Marcye Scott 89%

Yes No

Everton Blair 13%

Yes No

$17k Vol.

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Zambia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout

60-70% 39%

Yes No

70-80% 20%

Yes No

$29k Vol.

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Malaysian parliament dissolved by..?

June 30, 2027 56%

Yes No

December 31, 2026 46%

Yes No

$25k Vol.

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Will Saturn launch a token by ___?

December 31, 2027 83%

Yes No

June 30, 2027 36%

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox

ATL 51%

CWS 50%

ATL CWS

$964k Vol.

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Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?

49% chance

Yes No

$5k Vol.

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Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 97%

Yes No

Google 1%

Yes No

$43k Vol.

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Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

Anthropic 97%

Yes No

Google 1%

Yes No

$375k Vol.

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Which company has the best Text Arena Coding AI model end of July?

Anthropic 98%

Yes No

Alibaba 1%

Yes No

$40k Vol.

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Moving Now

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Alibaba 88%

Yes No

Moonshot 11%

Yes No

$742k Vol.

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Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Anthropic 99%

Yes No

OpenAI 1%

Yes No

$132k Vol.

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Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 98%

Yes No

OpenAI 1%

Yes No

$126k Vol.

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Which company has the #2 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 97%

Yes No

OpenAI 2%

Yes No

$64k Vol.

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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic 64%

Yes No

Google 11%

Yes No

$399k Vol.

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Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by…?

December 31 5%

Yes No

July 31 0%

Yes No

$161k Vol.

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Which company has best AI model end of July?

Anthropic 99%

Yes No

OpenAI 0%

Yes No

$8m Vol.

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Which company has second best AI model end of July?

Anthropic 99%

Yes No

Alibaba 1%

Yes No

$79k Vol.

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Moving Now

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

17% chance

Yes No

$3k Vol.

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Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

43% chance

Yes No

$1k Vol.

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Moving Now

Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

0.3%–0.5% 54%

Yes No

0.6%–0.8% 44%

Yes No

$20k Vol.

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Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by…?

December 31 72%

Yes No

September 30 25%

Yes No

$21k Vol.

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Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Bola Tinubu 63%

Yes No

Peter Obi 38%

Yes No

$73k Vol.

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Moving Now

Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner

Loranne Ausley 68%

Yes No

Jeremy Matlow 20%

Yes No

$98k Vol.

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Trump approval Up or Down this week?

100% chance

Yes No

$16k Vol.

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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen 86%

Yes No

Édouard Philippe 41%

Yes No

$75k Vol.

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Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by…?

August 31 82%

Yes No

August 7 19%

Yes No

$331k Vol.

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What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

$ANTH 48%

Yes No

$AAI 17%

Yes No

$59k Vol.

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Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31, 2026 71%

Yes No

October 31, 2026 37%

Yes No

$806k Vol.

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Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$1.25–$1.5T 17%

Yes No

$2.25–$2.5T 17%

Yes No

$180k Vol.

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Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Goldman Sachs 66%

Yes No

Morgan Stanley 34%

Yes No

$44k Vol.

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Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

84% chance

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

10% chance

Yes No

$44k Vol.

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Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela 28%

Yes No

Saudi Arabia 18%

Yes No

$321k Vol.

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Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?

15% chance

Yes No

$378 Vol.

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Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?

11% chance

Yes No

$349 Vol.

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What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?

Propellant Leak 48%

Yes No

Software or Control System Failure 43%

Yes No

$738 Vol.

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