Who Wins the GA-13 Special Election?

The GA-13 special election has no clear frontrunner the market trusts. Marcye Scott, daughter of the late Congressman David Scott, holds a 43.5% implied probability on Polymarket. That is a plurality position in a six-candidate race, but it is not a mandate. The market has moved sharply in both directions and has not settled.

The market question asks which candidate wins the GA-13 special election held July 28, 2026. YES pays out at $0.44 and NO at $0.57. The election resolves by July 29, 2026. Total market volume is $545, a thin book for a contested congressional seat.

How the GA-13 Special Election Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Marcye Scott wins outright with more than 50% of the vote on July 28, 2026. Under Georgia state law, all candidates run on a single ballot. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two advance to a runoff. Resolution tracks the final certified winner, not runoff qualification.

• YES ($0.44): Marcye Scott wins the special election outright or, if the market resolves on the runoff winner, wins that contest.
• NO ($0.57): Any other candidate, including Carlos Moore, Everton Blair, Tony Brown, Caesar Gonzales, or Fayth Park, wins the seat.

The NO side reflects a structural reality. Six candidates split a Democratic-leaning electorate in Georgia’s 13th District. Marcye Scott avoids the runoff only if the field clears enough space for her to cross 50%. With five opponents on the ballot, that path is narrow. The field stays fractured if no candidate consolidates endorsements before July 28.

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Market Signals Show Selling Pressure With Thin Volume

The momentum composite tells a bearish story for Scott. Her contract dropped 4.5% in the last 24 hours and held flat in the last hour, with a trend score of 13.65. The elevated trend score signals recent volatility, not conviction. A 21.5% spike and a 16.5% drop both landed on June 8, suggesting a single news event drove the swing without producing lasting directional commitment.

Total volume of $545 and zero dollars traded in the last 24 hours classify this market as LOW confidence. Liquidity sits at $1,932. These numbers are thin enough that one mid-sized bet shifts the price materially. Traders treating this market as a signal of collective wisdom should apply significant discount.

• Marcye Scott’s contract lost 4.5% in 24 hours while the trend score reached 13.65, pointing to selling pressure without reversal signals.
• Zero 24-hour volume means no new money entered the market on June 11, 2026, despite the election being seven weeks out.
• Total volume of $545 sits well below the $1 million threshold for MEDIUM confidence, making price moves unreliable as conviction signals.
• A sharp round-trip on June 8 suggests the market reacted to a specific development but could not hold a new equilibrium.
• With six candidates in the field, price volatility will increase as endorsements, debates, or consolidation news emerges before July 28.

Lines Analysis: Scott Has Name Recognition, the Field Has Numbers

Marcye Scott enters this race with the most powerful asset in a low-turnout special election: name recognition built across her father’s 12 terms representing the district. Voters in Georgia’s 13th have cast ballots for the Scott name since 2002. In a crowded field with thin voter mobilization, that brand identity is a structural advantage no opponent can buy quickly.

The field complicates Scott’s path if any candidate consolidates progressive or establishment support. Everton Blair, the former Gwinnett County Board of Education chair, brings an institutional base. Carlos Moore, Tony Brown, Caesar Gonzales, and Fayth Park each peel votes that might otherwise flow to Scott. The alternative outcome becomes real the moment two or more opponents reach a runoff alongside Scott, or if a single challenger consolidates the non-Scott vote before July 28.

• A Scott runoff qualification triggers a second vote with different turnout dynamics and could shift the market toward NO sharply.
• Any major endorsement from a Georgia Democratic official landing before July 1 would move Scott’s price toward 55% or higher.
• Blair’s dual-race strategy (running in both the special and regular elections) signals organizational depth that bears watching as a consolidation vehicle.
• Turnout models in Georgia special elections historically favor name ID in crowded primaries, which advantages Scott but does not guarantee 50%-plus.
• The July 28 date falls in the summer recess window, when low-engagement electorate conditions can produce non-linear results.

The data at $545 in total volume favors no side with statistical confidence. Scott holds a plurality position consistent with a name-recognition advantage in a crowded field. The math shows no candidate has built the kind of market conviction associated with a dominant frontrunner. The NO side prices in a real possibility that the field holds together long enough to deny Scott an outright majority.

LINES VERDICT

Field Holds, Runoff Likely

Marcye Scott leads on name recognition alone, but a six-candidate ballot in a low-turnout July special election rarely produces a first-round majority. The market has not priced a clear winner because the race has not produced one.

What the market says: Scott sits at 43.5% implied probability, meaning the market rates her as the most likely single winner but assigns a majority view to the combined field beating her outright. With seven weeks to July 28, this price will move on endorsements and consolidation signals.

Political Context: A Legacy Seat With an Open Map

David Scott died on April 22, 2026, at 80 years old after serving 12 terms in Georgia’s 13th District. Governor Brian Kemp called the special election within 10 days of the vacancy, scheduling the vote for July 28 per Georgia law. All six candidates run on a single ballot. The Cook Political Report noted that Scott’s death reset a race that had already attracted serious challengers, leaving the field genuinely open in a district that has voted Democratic since Scott’s first win in 2002. No public polling specific to the special election field has been released as of June 11, 2026. Endorsements from Georgia’s Democratic congressional delegation, state party leadership, or influential Atlanta-area officials would constitute the most direct catalyst for a price move before the July 28 vote.

What moves this market before July 28: a major Democratic endorsement landing before the July 1 ballot deadline, a candidate withdrawal that consolidates the non-Scott vote, or a public poll showing any candidate above 40% in a credible sample.

Who wins the GA-13 special election?

The market currently prices Marcye Scott as the most likely individual winner at 43.5%, with the combined field alternatives above 56%. No polling has clarified the race as of June 11, 2026.

What does the NO contract pay out on?

The NO contract pays if any candidate other than Marcye Scott wins the certified special election result. That includes Carlos Moore, Everton Blair, Tony Brown, Caesar Gonzales, or Fayth Park winning outright or in a runoff.

What moves the price on this contract?

Endorsements from Georgia Democratic leaders, candidate withdrawals, or any public polling of the six-way field would shift this market materially before July 28.

When does this contract resolve?

The special election is scheduled for July 28, 2026, with the market resolving by July 29, 2026. A runoff, if triggered, could delay final resolution.

Is $545 in volume enough to trust this price?

No. Total volume of $545 classifies this as a LOW-confidence market. Individual trades shift the price significantly, and the 43.5% figure reflects thin, volatile activity rather than broad trader consensus.