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Market of the Day

Fed Decision in July?

$5.5m Volume ↓ 7.9% today

No change 74% Yes No

25 bps increase 25% Yes No

50+ bps increase 1% Yes No

+2 more

74% Leading

No change 74%

25 bps in… 25%

50+ bps i… 1%

+2 more

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Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by…?

December 31 99%

Yes No

October 31 99%

Yes No

$10k Vol.

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Who will vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence

Thom Tillis 97%

Yes No

John Cornyn 75%

Yes No

$7k Vol.

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Maranhão Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Braide 74%

Yes No

Orleans Brandão 22%

Yes No

$19k Vol.

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Paraíba Governor Election Winner

Lucas Ribeiro 71%

Yes No

Cícero Lucena 21%

Yes No

$36k Vol.

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Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

Ricardo Ferraço 63%

Yes No

Lorenzo Pazolini 35%

Yes No

$13k Vol.

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Georgia Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Jackson 5–10% 99%

Yes No

Jackson 10–15% 1%

Yes No

$33k Vol.

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Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Donald Trump 100%

Yes No

JD Vance 100%

Yes No

$2m Vol.

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Will Falcons make a roster change before August?

2% chance

Yes No

$10k Vol.

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Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August?

100% chance

Yes No

$15k Vol.

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Will HEROIC make a roster change before August?

96% chance

Yes No

$6k Vol.

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Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?

December 31, 2027 68%

Yes No

December 31, 2026 8%

Yes No

$58k Vol.

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CBLOL EWC Qualifiers: which team will qualify

LOS 97%

Yes No

LOUD 3%

Yes No

$16k Vol.

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Another critical Cloudflare incident by…?

September 30 80%

Yes No

August 31 43%

Yes No

$22k Vol.

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Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users in 2026?

8% chance

Yes No

$129 Vol.

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2026 Song of the Summer

Midnight Sun – Zara Larsson 4%

Yes No

hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande 3%

Yes No

$16k Vol.

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USD/JPY: Close Price End of 2026

140-150 34%

Yes No

160-170 29%

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026

65,000-70,000 33%

Yes No

<55,000 31%

Yes No

$10k Vol.

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LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) – Asia Masters Group B

KTC 100%

BLGJ 0%

KTC BLGJ

$352k Vol.

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Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

2.0-2.2% 24%

Yes No

2.6-2.8% 24%

Yes No

$5k Vol.

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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Anthony Albanese 41%

Yes No

Pauline Hanson 20%

Yes No

$14k Vol.

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Screwworm National Emergency declared by…?

December 31 50%

Yes No

August 30 49%

Yes No

$1k Vol.

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Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?

49% chance

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by…?

October 31 63%

Yes No

August 30 60%

Yes No

$6k Vol.

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Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

September 30 82%

Yes No

August 31 45%

Yes No

$77k Vol.

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SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

87% chance

Yes No

$513 Vol.

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How many senators will vote for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?

50 41%

Yes No

52 40%

Yes No

$7k Vol.

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Pará Governor Election Winner

Dr. Daniel Santos 50%

Yes No

Hana Ghassan 42%

Yes No

$22k Vol.

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Moving Now

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by…

December 31 58%

Yes No

October 31 49%

Yes No

$4k Vol.

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Goiás Governor Election Winner

Daniel Vilela 86%

Yes No

Wilder Morais 14%

Yes No

$3k Vol.

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Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

Jorginho Mello 89%

Yes No

João Rodrigues 7%

Yes No

$101k Vol.

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Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro 82%

Yes No

Guto Silva 4%

Yes No

$29k Vol.

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Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Paes 94%

Yes No

Douglas Ruas 3%

Yes No

$270k Vol.

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Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

20% chance

Yes No

$3k Vol.

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Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

19% chance

Yes No

$42k Vol.

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Next Mayor of Johannesburg?

Helen Zille 44%

Yes No

Frank Chikane 38%

Yes No

$74k Vol.

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Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?

77% chance

Yes No

$3k Vol.

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Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?

76% chance

Yes No

$1k Vol.

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Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?

↑5.5 32%

Yes No

↓4.5 29%

Yes No

$838 Vol.

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July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.20–1.24ºC 86%

Yes No

1.25–1.29ºC 8%

Yes No

$49k Vol.

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How many Tornadoes in the US in July?

100–129 42%

Yes No

<100 38%

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Junior Eurovision Winner 2026

Ukraine 30%

Yes No

France 21%

Yes No

$9k Vol.

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SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

3% chance

Yes No

$18k Vol.

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SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?

Gwynne Shotwell 100%

Yes No

Bret Johnsen 100%

Yes No

$370k Vol.

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LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) – Asia Masters Group C

SGW 100%

DINO 0%

SGW DINO

$471k Vol.

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Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?

0% chance

Yes No

$86k Vol.

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Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

0% chance

Yes No

$859k Vol.

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LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?

1% chance

Yes No

$805 Vol.

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Is Earth flat?

2% chance

Yes No

$52k Vol.

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