US July Tornado Count: Market Leans Against Sub-100

July is historically one of the quieter months for US tornadoes, but the market for this year’s count is doing something interesting: it’s pricing the sub-100 outcome at just under four-in-ten. That’s a meaningful discount to what climatology alone would suggest. The market implies a 36.5% probability that July 2026 produces fewer than 100 confirmed US tornadoes. The other 63.5% is spread across eight higher-count brackets, from 100-129 all the way to 310-plus.

The market question asks how many tornadoes the US records in July 2026, resolving August 1, 2026. The <100 bracket sits at $0.37. The combined NO side (all other brackets) sits at $0.64. Total traded volume is $422, with zero trades in the past 24 hours. Liquidity stands at $9,968. This is an extremely thin market.

How the Tornado Count Contract Works

YES pays out if confirmed US tornado reports for July 2026 total fewer than 100. NO covers every outcome above that floor, from 100 tornadoes to over 310. The Storm Prediction Center at NOAA tracks and publishes tornado counts. Resolution follows that official data.

• YES (<100 tornadoes): $0.37 — implied probability 36.5%
• NO (100 or more tornadoes): $0.64 — implied probability 63.5%

The NO side pays when July tornado activity meets or exceeds the 100-tornado threshold. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center confirms counts after preliminary reports are verified. In most years, July produces between 100 and 200 tornadoes. A sub-100 month requires a genuine suppression of convective activity across the central US through the entire month.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The combined momentum signal is mixed and weak. The 1-hour move of -3.5% and the 24-hour move of +4.0% partially cancel, yielding a trend score of 21.35. That’s low conviction in both directions. No data release or weather event is visibly driving this signal. The June 11 price swings in the history suggest a single trader repositioning, not an informed flow.

Volume is the loudest signal here: $422 total, zero in 24 hours. That is not a market. That is a placeholder with a price attached. Liquidity at $9,968 means a modest order could shift the price sharply. The data doesn’t care about the politics, but thin liquidity means the price doesn’t reliably reflect science either. Treat this probability as a rough directional lean, not a calibrated forecast.

• The 1-hour decline of 3.5% and the 24-hour gain of 4.0% net to near-zero momentum for the YES bracket.
• Zero 24-hour volume means no new information has entered the market since at least June 10.
• Liquidity of $9,968 is deep relative to total volume, meaning the order book hasn’t been tested.
• Trend score of 21.35 reflects no directional conviction from active traders.
• Related market: the June tornado count sits at 42% for an equivalent low-count outcome, suggesting traders see July as slightly less likely to undershoot than June.

Lines Analysis: What the Climatology Says

Here’s what the measurements are telling us. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data going back decades shows July averages roughly 100 to 150 confirmed tornadoes. Sub-100 months happen, but they’re the minority. The atmosphere in July tends to push tornado activity into the northern plains and upper midwest as the jet stream retreats north. That pattern doesn’t disappear in July. It just shifts geography.

The argument for sub-100 rests on two conditions: a quiet La Nina or neutral ENSO pattern suppressing Gulf moisture, and an absence of major outbreak events. Outbreak sequences, where a single synoptic setup produces 20 or more tornadoes in 48 hours, can push a monthly total above 100 on their own. One missed outbreak forecast, one active MCS sequence, and the sub-100 bracket closes out worthless.

• NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary tornado reports for June 2026 will signal whether the atmospheric pattern favors suppression or activity heading into July.
• ENSO status from the Climate Prediction Center, updated monthly, tells traders whether La Nina suppression is persisting or weakening.
• Any significant tornado outbreak in the first two weeks of July immediately threatens the sub-100 bracket.
• Upper-level ridge positioning over the US central states in late June is the key atmospheric setup to watch.
• NOAA’s monthly climate outlook for July, released in late June, will include convective activity context.

The market is pricing uncertainty, not science. At $422 in total volume, this contract hasn’t attracted enough capital to force price discovery. The 36.5% YES probability is roughly consistent with historical climatology, but that alignment may be coincidental given the volume. The NO side is structurally favored by history, but history doesn’t guarantee a July above 100 in any single year.

NO SIDE HISTORICALLY FAVORED, MARKET TOO THIN TO TRUST

NOAA climatology puts sub-100 July tornado counts in the minority, and the market’s 36.5% YES price roughly reflects that. But with $422 in total volume and zero recent trades, this price is directionally reasonable and nothing more.

What the market says: 36.5% probability that July 2026 produces fewer than 100 US tornadoes. Given near-zero volume, this number can shift sharply on a single trade or a first July outbreak report. Watch price movement in the first week of July as preliminary SPC data starts flowing.

Key unknown: Whether any significant tornado outbreak occurs in the first half of July. A single multi-day outbreak sequence can cross the 100-tornado line before the month is half over, immediately closing the YES bracket.

Scientific Context

July sits at the trailing edge of peak tornado season in the US. The Storm Prediction Center’s historical data shows the monthly mean declining from May through August, with July typically landing between 100 and 180 confirmed tornadoes depending on the year. Sub-100 months occur in roughly 25 to 35 percent of years in modern records. That range brackets the market’s current 36.5% YES probability tightly. Events that would move this price before August 1 include a major outbreak in early July (pushes YES toward zero), a confirmed inactive ridge pattern through mid-July (pushes YES higher), or updated ENSO guidance signaling stronger moisture suppression than currently forecast.

How does the 36.5% probability work?

It means the market assigns roughly a one-in-three chance that July 2026 produces fewer than 100 confirmed US tornadoes. Every other outcome, from 100 to 310-plus, makes up the remaining two-thirds.

What pays out on the NO side?

Any July tornado count of 100 or more resolves the NO side (all alternative brackets) as winners. The Storm Prediction Center’s final verified count for July determines which bracket wins.

What data event would move this price most?

A tornado outbreak report from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in early July. A 30-plus tornado event in the first week would push YES probability sharply lower.

When does this market resolve?

August 1, 2026 at 3:59 AM UTC. Resolution follows NOAA’s official July tornado count, which typically becomes available in early August after preliminary reports are verified.

Is the $9,968 liquidity figure reliable?

Liquidity reflects order book depth, not traded conviction. With only $422 in total volume, a single moderate trade could move the price significantly. This market has not been stress-tested by real capital flow.