M5.5+ Earthquakes June 29-July 5: 11 Quakes at 14.5%

The seismic count for the June 29 through July 5 window is almost decided. With just days left in the resolution period, the market has collapsed the probability on exactly 11 magnitude-5.5-or-above earthquakes to 14.5 percent. That number dropped more than 37 percent in the past 24 hours. The data is moving fast, and most of it is moving against this outcome.

This market asks: how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur globally between June 29 and July 5, 2026? The YES price sits at $0.15. The NO price is $0.86. The contract resolves July 5 at 11:59 PM. Total volume stands at $4,964, with $2,413 traded in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Eleven-Quake Contract Works

This is a count-specific contract. YES pays out only if the verified global earthquake count of M5.5 or above lands at exactly 11 during the specified window. The United States Geological Survey maintains the authoritative earthquake catalog that determines resolution. Every other count, whether 10, 12, 13, or more, results in a NO payout on this specific contract.

• YES ($0.15, 14.5% implied probability): exactly 11 earthquakes of M5.5 or greater occur globally between June 29 and July 5, 2026.
• NO ($0.86, 85.5% implied probability): any count other than 11, including 10, 12, 13, 14, or more than 14, resolves this contract as NO.

A NO payout here does not require seismic quiet. It simply requires the final USGS count to land anywhere except 11. Historically, a seven-day global window produces roughly 10 to 20 earthquakes at this threshold, depending on whether any major seismic sequences occur. The NO outcome is structurally broad because 11 is one number out of many possible counts.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here tells a clear story. The 1-hour change is flat, but the 24-hour price drop of 37.5 percent combined with a trend score of 27.59 points to a single driver: the running USGS count for this window has already diverged from exactly 11. As the week progresses and real-time data accumulates, traders are pricing out the chance that the final tally lands precisely here.

Total volume of $4,964 and 24-hour volume of $2,413 confirm this is a thin market. Liquidity is relatively deep at $40,826, but with volume well below $1 million, a single large bet or a surprise seismic sequence could move the price sharply. Treat the 14.5 percent figure as directionally accurate but vulnerable to sudden swings.

• The 24-hour price drop of 37.5 percent reflects real-time count data pushing traders away from exactly 11 as the likely final number.
• Trend score of 27.59 confirms sustained bearish pressure on this outcome over the resolution window.
• Liquidity at $40,826 is healthy relative to volume, meaning the order book can absorb moderate trades without extreme slippage.
• The 1-hour change of flat zero suggests the immediate selling pressure has stabilized, at least temporarily.
• Volume below $1 million means any cluster of new bets tied to a fresh seismic event could reprice this contract quickly.

Lines Analysis: The USGS Count Is the Only Variable

The USGS global earthquake catalog updates in near real-time. By July 2 in this resolution window, traders already have a strong read on whether the count is trending toward 11 or away from it. The 37.5 percent single-day price collapse suggests the running tally has moved past 11 or is tracking below it. Either way, the market is concluding that exactly 11 is unlikely.

What makes this outcome real is narrow arithmetic. The global average for M5.5-plus events in a seven-day period runs close to 15 to 20 events per week based on USGS historical catalog data. A count of exactly 11 would require a quieter-than-average week with no major aftershock sequences inflating the total. Any active subduction zone sequence, such as activity along the Tonga Trench, the Aleutian Islands, or the Sumatra fault system, can push the weekly count well above 11 within days.

• USGS real-time catalog: any update crossing a key threshold above or below 11 before July 5 will reprice this contract immediately.
• Major aftershock sequences: a single M6.5-plus mainshock can generate multiple qualifying aftershocks within 48 hours, pushing the count past 11.
• Pacific Ring of Fire activity: the western Pacific and South American subduction zones dominate weekly M5.5-plus counts and are the primary uncertainty here.
• Seismically quiet mid-week periods: if the remaining days see unusually low activity, the count could fall short of 11, still resolving NO but from below rather than above.

Total volume of $4,964 is thin. The 85.5 percent probability assigned to NO reflects trader consensus that the USGS count will not land on exactly 11. The data favors NO strongly, but the single largest risk to that position is a late-week seismic sequence that lands the count precisely at 11, which is statistically unlikely but not impossible.

LINES VERDICT

STRONG NO LEAN

The USGS count for this window has almost certainly diverged from exactly 11, and the 37.5 percent single-day price collapse reflects traders watching real-time catalog data confirm it. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: landing precisely on one number out of a wide range is low-probability math, and the seismic data is not cooperating.

What the market says: At 14.5 percent implied probability, the market has effectively concluded that exactly 11 M5.5-plus earthquakes in this window is unlikely. With the resolution date of July 5 just days away, volatility risk remains if a major seismic sequence breaks late in the week.

Key unknown: The single most important variable is whether the USGS catalog closes the window at exactly 11 events. A major aftershock cluster anywhere along the Pacific Ring of Fire in the final 48 hours could shift the count, but moving it precisely to 11 from wherever it currently sits is the narrow path this contract needs.