SF High Temp July 5: 68-69°F Leads at Thirty-Eight Percent

San Francisco’s Fourth of July weekend forecast is splitting the market almost cleanly. The 68-69°F bracket holds a 38% implied probability, making it the single most-traded outcome for the city’s high temperature on July 5. But 62% of the market sits on every other bracket combined, which means no outcome has locked up majority conviction. That is exactly the kind of setup where a single updated forecast can reprice the contract fast.

The market question asks: what will the highest temperature in San Francisco be on July 5? The 68-69°F bracket trades at $0.38 YES and $0.62 NO, resolving at noon Pacific on July 5, 2026. Total volume stands at $4,288, all of it placed within the last 24 hours. The market is brand new and extremely thin.

How the San Francisco July Fifth Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the official high temperature recorded in San Francisco on July 5, 2026 falls between 68°F and 69°F inclusive. The resolution source is the market operator’s designated weather data feed, not a specific named agency in the placeholder data. Competing brackets cover the full temperature range from 55°F and below up to 74°F and higher.

• YES ($0.38, implied 38%): the San Francisco high on July 5 lands exactly at 68°F or 69°F.
• NO ($0.62, implied 62%): the high falls outside that two-degree window, in any other bracket.

A NO outcome here does not require cold weather. A high of 71°F pays NO just as cleanly as a high of 58°F. The contract is a precision bet on a narrow two-degree band in a city famous for microclimates and fog variability. Afternoon marine layer burn-off timing is the single biggest variable. If the marine layer clears early, the city can reach 72°F or higher. If it stalls, 64°F or 65°F is realistic.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is straightforward: the 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0%, the trend score sits at a neutral 50.60, and no 24-hour comparison exists because this market opened within the last day. The meaningful signal is that the YES price moved from $0.25 at open to $0.38 as of this writing, a gain of roughly 52% in two days of trading driven by early positioning around updated short-range forecasts.

Total volume is $4,288, all of it within the 24-hour window. Liquidity is $37,015, which is unusually high relative to volume on a market this new. That liquidity depth suggests a market maker has seeded the order book. However, total traded volume below $1,000 per hour means a single mid-size bet can move the price meaningfully. This is a thin, fast-moving contract.

• The YES price climbed from $0.25 to $0.38 between July 3 and July 4, tracking improving forecast alignment with the 68-69°F range.
• The 24-hour volume of $4,288 represents the entire market history, flagging extremely thin liquidity risk.
• A neutral trend score of 50.60 with flat hourly movement suggests the market is waiting on the next forecast update rather than reacting to one.
• Trader sentiment runs 38% YES and 62% NO, consistent with distributed probability across multiple competing brackets.
• No whale trades are on record. Every position in this market is retail-scale.

Lines Analysis: The Forecast Window and the Fog Variable

The 68-69°F bracket leads because it sits in the middle of San Francisco’s plausible July 5 range. The city’s historical July average high hovers near 65°F, but July 4 and 5 weekends frequently see above-average readings when offshore high pressure suppresses the marine layer. Short-range forecast models as of July 4 are pointing toward highs in the upper 60s for the urban core. That alignment drove the YES price from $0.25 to $0.38 and is the clearest bullish signal in this contract.

The NO side holds 62% of the probability not because conditions look cold, but because a two-degree window is genuinely narrow. The competing 66-67°F bracket and the 70-71°F bracket each carry meaningful implied probability. A forecast that calls for 70°F under uncertainty could easily resolve at 71°F or 69°F depending on afternoon wind timing. The National Weather Service San Francisco forecast, issued twice daily, is the data point that will move this contract most before resolution.

• NWS San Francisco: the next forecast update, expected the morning of July 5, is the single most important data release for this contract.
• Marine layer timing: early clearing before 11 a.m. Pacific pushes the high toward 70-71°F and away from the YES bracket.
• Late clearing or persistent fog: keeps the high at 65-67°F, also outside the YES bracket.
• Offshore high pressure persistence: if the ridge holds through July 5 morning, the 68-69°F and 70-71°F brackets both strengthen.
• Microclimatic variance: official readings depend on the specific station used for resolution, which can differ from neighborhood-level observations by two to three degrees.

The $4,288 in total volume reflects a brand-new market with no institutional positioning. The data currently favors the 68-69°F bracket as the modal outcome, but the precision required for YES means the contract remains genuinely uncertain. Distributed probability across neighboring brackets is the correct read.

MODAL OUTCOME, NARROW WINDOW

The 68-69°F bracket is the single most-likely outcome for San Francisco’s July 5 high, but a two-degree resolution window in a fog-driven coastal city means substantial probability lives in adjacent brackets.

What the market says: At 38% implied probability, the market has priced this bracket as the leader without giving it majority conviction. With resolution in less than 24 hours and volume this thin, a single updated NWS forecast could shift prices sharply in either direction.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service San Francisco morning forecast on July 5 is the decisive data point. If the official high-temperature projection moves outside the 68-69°F band, adjacent brackets will absorb significant volume and reprice this contract fast.

Scientific Context: San Francisco Temperature Patterns in July

San Francisco’s July climate is governed by the California High, a persistent offshore pressure system that competes with the marine layer pushed inland by the Pacific. Average July highs at San Francisco International Airport run near 65°F, but downtown and Mission District stations frequently record two to four degrees warmer. The upper 60s represent a realistic but above-average outcome for the urban core. Years with strong ridge patterns have produced July 4-5 highs in the low 70s at downtown stations, while strong marine layer years keep the city in the low 60s through afternoon. The current forecast window sits in the middle of that historical distribution, which explains why the market has landed on 68-69°F as its modal answer without overwhelming conviction.