Denver High Temp July 5: Will 92-93°F Hit?

Denver’s July 5 temperature market is tighter than the forecast models. Traders are pricing 92-93°F at 44.5% probability, making it the leading outcome in a field of eleven possible ranges. The contract resolves at noon local time on July 5, which means the window is short and the margin for error is slim.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature recorded in Denver on July 5, 2026? The 92-93°F outcome sits at $0.45 YES and $0.56 NO. Total volume stands at $3,978, which is thin. That matters. Thin volume means a single large trade can move this price sharply before resolution.

How This Denver Temperature Contract Works

YES pays out if Denver’s official high temperature on July 5 falls between 92°F and 93°F, inclusive. NO pays if the high lands anywhere outside that two-degree window, across ten alternative ranges from 83°F or below to 102°F or higher.

• YES ($0.45): Denver’s July 5 high lands exactly in the 92-93°F band.
• NO ($0.56): Denver’s July 5 high falls in any other temperature range.

The NO side wins simply by the temperature missing the two-degree target band in either direction. Denver’s mid-summer highs are notoriously variable. A persistent ridge of high pressure pushes readings toward 95°F or above, while an afternoon thunderstorm or a shift in the wind pattern can knock the high down to 88-90°F. The two-degree resolution window is narrow, and that narrowness is the central risk here.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The 1-hour price change of +5.0% combined with a trend score of 59.33 points to fresh buying pressure on the 92-93°F outcome. That momentum is almost certainly weather-model driven. As the July 5 date approaches, National Weather Service ensemble models converge on a tighter forecast range, and traders are repricing accordingly.

Total volume is $3,978, all of it placed in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $42,046, which is meaningfully deeper than the volume suggests. That liquidity ratio tells you the order book can absorb moves, but the low volume means the current price reflects only a handful of traders. When volume is this thin, a single well-placed trade can move the implied probability by five to ten points before resolution. Treat the 44.5% figure as a directional signal, not a precise calibration.

• The 1-hour +5.0% move and trend score of 59.33 reflect new weather model data narrowing the forecast toward the low-to-mid 90s range.
• Total volume of $3,978 is below $1M, flagging thin liquidity and elevated price sensitivity to new trades or forecast updates.
• The bearish sentiment split (44.5% YES vs. 55.5% NO) reflects the structural challenge of a two-degree resolution window in a volatile summer market.
• The 1-hour momentum is the sharpest signal available. No 24-hour change data is available to compare against.

Lines Analysis: Denver’s July Heat and the Two-Degree Problem

Denver’s July climate record supports the mid-90s as a plausible range for early July. The city’s average July high runs near 88-90°F, but heat events routinely push readings into the low-to-mid 90s during the first week of the month. The 92-93°F band sits squarely in that elevated-but-not-extreme zone, which is why it prices as the top single outcome despite covering only two degrees.

The competing ranges are the real obstacle. The 94-95°F band and the 90-91°F band each carry their own implied probability, and together they represent the most likely alternatives if the forecast shifts even slightly. A stronger-than-expected ridge keeps Denver in the 94-97°F range. An early afternoon storm, which is common in Denver’s monsoon-adjacent July pattern, clips the high before it reaches 92°F. Either scenario pays out for NO holders.

• National Weather Service Denver forecast updates on July 4 and the morning of July 5 are the single most important data inputs before resolution.
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs for the July 4-5 period will either confirm or challenge the current consensus around the low-to-mid 90s.
• Afternoon convective activity (thunderstorm probability) is the wildcard that most commonly disrupts Denver’s summer high readings.
• The 12:00 noon resolution cutoff means the market resolves before the typical daily high of 2-4 PM local time. This is a critical structural detail.
• Any NWS heat advisory or excessive heat watch issued for the Denver metro area before July 5 would signal upside pressure toward 96-97°F or higher ranges.

Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the 92-93°F range is the most probable single outcome, but it holds less than half the probability. Total volume of $3,978 means this market is lightly traded. The data favors watching how NWS ensemble models shift in the 24 hours before resolution rather than treating the current 44.5% as a settled signal.

LEADING BUT FRAGILE

The 92-93°F outcome holds the highest single probability in the field, but 44.5% means the market assigns a 55.5% chance to every other temperature range combined. The two-degree window and thin volume make this a precision trade, not a directional one.

What the market says: At 44.5% implied probability, the market favors 92-93°F as the most likely single outcome while acknowledging significant uncertainty across adjacent ranges. With resolution on July 5 at noon, any forecast shift in the next 24 hours can reprice this contract sharply.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service Denver afternoon forecast update on July 4, combined with overnight model runs, is the single data point most likely to move this market before it closes.