Seattle July 5 High: Can 74-75°F Hold the Lead?

The market for Seattle’s July 5 high temperature has settled on a familiar number. The 74-75°F range carries a 37% implied probability, making it the single most likely outcome in an eleven-way field. That is a thin plurality, not a consensus. With a total market volume of just $2,558 and resolution arriving in less than 36 hours, every new National Weather Service forecast update matters more than usual.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Seattle on July 5? The 74-75°F outcome trades at $0.37 YES and $0.63 NO as of July 4, 2026. All other temperature bands compete for the remaining 63% of probability. The market resolves July 5, 2026.

How This Contract Works: Seattle’s July 5 Temperature Range

YES on 74-75°F pays out if the official high temperature recorded for Seattle on July 5 falls at or above 74°F and at or below 75°F. The resolution source is the market’s designated weather data provider, which draws from official station readings, most likely SeaTac Airport, the standard reference point for Seattle temperature records. NO pays out if the high lands anywhere outside that two-degree band, including any of the ten other listed ranges from 65°F or below up to 84°F or higher.

• YES on 74-75°F: $0.37, implied probability 37%
• NO (all other outcomes combined): $0.63, implied probability 63%

The NO side here is structural rather than directional. A high of 73°F wins NO just as surely as a high of 80°F. The bet is about precision, not direction. The NWS Seattle forecast for July 5 needs to miss the 74-75°F window entirely for NO to pay out, and with eleven possible bands, most individual temperature outcomes do land outside any single two-degree range.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals: Thin Volume, Real Movement

The momentum composite is mixed. The 1-hour price change is -3.0%, the trend score sits at 47.24, and 24-hour data is unavailable. The direction of travel in the final hour is slightly bearish on 74-75°F, likely reflecting forecast model updates as the NWS refines its July 5 outlook. The market has been watching afternoon sea breeze patterns and marine layer behavior, both of which strongly influence Seattle summer highs.

Total volume is $2,558, all of it transacted in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is $32,649, which is substantial relative to the volume traded. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: this is a thin market where a single moderately sized trade can shift the YES price by several cents. Treat any sudden price movement as a potential data artifact rather than a consensus signal.

• The 74-75°F range gained 5.5% on July 4, reflecting early forecast alignment with seasonal norms before the late-hour pullback.
• The 1-hour -3.0% decline suggests at least one recent forecast run pushed the expected high slightly outside this band.
• Trend score of 47.24 is near neutral, indicating the market has not committed strongly in either direction.
• Liquidity at $32,649 means price discovery is possible, but the signal is noisy at this volume level.

Lines Analysis: NWS Forecasts and the Two-Degree Problem

The NWS Seattle office has Seattle’s July 5 high forecast in the mid-to-upper 70s range, which straddles several of the listed bands. The 74-75°F outcome sits at the cooler edge of that zone. Seattle’s July historical average high runs close to 75°F, so this range has seasonal backing. A modest marine layer intrusion on July 5 morning could nudge the high down into the 72-73°F band. A stronger offshore push could send it toward 76-77°F or above.

The data doesn’t care about the politics, and here it is blunt: two degrees of precision in a Pacific Northwest summer forecast is genuinely hard. The marine layer at SeaTac is notoriously difficult to time. If the layer burns off an hour later than forecast, the high could fall one to two degrees short of 74°F. If the July 4 heat carries more persistence than current models show, the high could overshoot into the 76-77°F range. Both scenarios pay NO.

• NWS Seattle’s next forecast discussion will be the single most important data point before resolution.
• A morning marine layer report for SeaTac on July 5 would shift probabilities toward cooler bands (72-73°F or below).
• Any NWS heat advisory or above-normal temperature statement would shift probability toward 76°F or higher bands.
• Overnight low temperatures on July 4-5 act as a floor: a low above 60°F supports a high near or above 74°F.
• Model consensus from GFS and European forecasts, if publicly updated, would reprice this contract quickly.

Total volume of $2,558 means the market is pricing uncertainty, not science. The NWS forecast range is wide enough to support multiple adjacent bands simultaneously. The data currently favors the 74-75°F range as the single most likely outcome, but the NO side correctly reflects how often any specific two-degree band misses in Pacific Northwest summer forecasting.

LINES VERDICT

NARROW LEADER IN A CROWDED FIELD

The 74-75°F range holds the plurality, but NWS Seattle’s forecast uncertainty across several adjacent bands keeps NO firmly in control of this market.

What the market says: At 37% implied probability, the market treats 74-75°F as the most likely single outcome while assigning a 63% chance the high lands somewhere else. With resolution in less than 36 hours and volume below $3,000, this price is sensitive to any single forecast update.

Key unknown: The NWS Seattle morning forecast discussion and SeaTac marine layer behavior on July 5 are the decisive inputs. A clear, dry morning pushes the high toward the mid-to-upper 70s. A late-clearing layer pulls it below 74°F.