Atlanta July 5 High Temp: Will It Hit 92-93°F?

Atlanta heads into July 5 with one specific temperature band drawing the most trader attention: 92-93°F. That range carries a 38.5% implied probability right now, making it the market leader among more than ten possible outcomes. The last hour saw a 7.5% price jump on the YES side, which is a meaningful move in a contract resolving in less than 24 hours.

The market question asks: what will be the highest temperature in Atlanta on July 5, 2026? YES resolves if the daily high lands in the 92-93°F band. NO resolves if Atlanta’s peak falls in any other range. The YES price is $0.39, the NO price is $0.62, and the contract closes on July 5 at 12:00 PM ET. Total volume stands at $8,822.

How the 92-93°F Contract Works

This is a bracket market, not a binary yes/no on heat. Traders are picking a specific 2-degree temperature window for Atlanta’s July 5 daily high. The National Weather Service measures and publishes official Atlanta high temperatures. A YES resolution requires the NWS-reported peak to fall between 92°F and 93°F, inclusive. The contract resolves July 5 at noon ET.

• YES ($0.39, 38.5% implied): Atlanta’s official high on July 5 lands at 92°F or 93°F.
• NO ($0.62, 61.5% implied): Atlanta’s high falls outside that band, in any direction.

The NO outcome here is unusually broad. It pays out if Atlanta tops out at 90°F or 91°F, or climbs to 94°F or higher. Atlanta’s July climate runs hot. The city’s average July daily high is around 89-90°F, but upper 80s are less likely during active heat setups. The NWS misses the 92-93°F band most often when a stronger ridge pushes temperatures into the mid-90s or when a stray storm system drops highs into the upper 80s.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The 7.5% one-hour price jump on YES, combined with a trend score of 59.53, points to a single catalyst: forecasters sharpening their July 5 Atlanta temperature calls as the date arrives. Thin markets respond sharply to new meteorological data, and this one is no exception. The move suggests traders absorbed an updated NWS forecast or model run and bought into the 92-93°F bracket.

Total volume is $8,822, with all of that movement arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $53,409, which is relatively deep for the volume base. That said, total trading volume is well below $1 million. Thin volume means the YES price can move sharply on a single updated weather model run or a revised NWS forecast.

• One-hour momentum (+7.5%): Buyers pushed the 92-93°F bracket higher in the last hour, likely tracking a weather forecast update.
• Trend score (59.53): Modestly above neutral. The contract has directional lean toward YES but not a runaway signal.
• Volume ($8,822 total): Thin. One large trade or a revised weather model can reprice this quickly before close.
• Liquidity ($53,409): Deeper than typical for this volume level, which moderates slippage risk.
• 24h price change: All of this market’s trading history arrived in the last 24 hours, making the one-hour move the cleanest momentum signal available.

Lines Analysis: Atlanta’s Temperature Band

The 92-93°F bracket makes meteorological sense for early July in Atlanta under a typical summer ridge pattern. Atlanta’s urban heat island effect pushes daily highs above the surrounding region. A 700-millibar ridge strong enough to keep afternoon convection suppressed tends to deliver highs in the low-to-mid 90s. If the NWS forecast currently centers on 93°F, the 92-93°F bracket captures the most likely single outcome in a distribution spread across multiple brackets.

What threatens YES is a shift in either direction. A stronger-than-expected ridge or extended sunshine into the late afternoon pushes Atlanta past 93°F into the 94-95°F or higher brackets. A morning storm complex, increased cloud cover, or a boundary passage drops the high into the 90-91°F band. Atlanta’s July 5 weather is heavily dependent on whether any remnant moisture from holiday weekend convection lingers into Saturday. The NWS Atlanta forecast is the single most important real-time input, and it updates multiple times before contract close at noon ET.

• NWS Atlanta forecast update: Any revision to the July 5 high temperature directly reprices this bracket market. Watch for the 6 AM and midday model runs.
• NOAA GFS and European model agreement: If both models center on 92-93°F, YES probability should hold or rise. Divergence adds uncertainty across brackets.
• Storm boundary timing: A midday convective cluster before noon could cap the high below 92°F. Timing relative to the noon resolution cutoff matters.
• Urban heat island persistence: Atlanta’s downtown and airport (Hartsfield-Jackson, the official measuring station) run warmer than regional averages. This slightly favors the higher end of any forecast range.
• Observed temperature by mid-morning: If Atlanta hits 88-89°F by 10 AM, a 92-93°F peak becomes a live question. Traders watching real-time observations can move the price fast in the final hours.

Total volume of $8,822 is thin, but the liquidity depth suggests the order book can absorb moderate-sized trades. The data currently favors the 92-93°F bracket as the single most likely outcome, but the contract pays NO on every other bracket combined. The cumulative probability of all other outcomes still sits at 61.5%.

LINES VERDICT

LEADING BRACKET, CONTESTED MARKET

The 92-93°F range holds the highest single-bracket probability in Atlanta’s July 5 temperature market, and the last-hour momentum confirms traders are leaning that direction as new forecast data arrives.

What the market says: At 38.5% implied probability, the market treats 92-93°F as the most likely outcome but far from certain. Thin volume below $1 million means any updated NWS forecast before noon ET on July 5 can move this price sharply in either direction.

Key unknown: The NWS Atlanta morning forecast update on July 5 is the single data point that will determine whether this bracket holds its lead or capital rotates to the 94-95°F or 90-91°F ranges before resolution.