SF High Temp July 13: Can It Hit 76-77°F?

San Francisco’s weather markets are rarely straightforward, and July 13 is shaping up to be no exception. The 76-77°F bracket sits at 22.5% implied probability, a meaningful but minority position in a field split across more than ten outcome bands. The market has moved sharply lower over the past two days, sliding from an opening position of 50% down to its current level as forecast data has shifted the distribution toward cooler readings.

The market question asks: what will be the highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13? The primary outcome, 76-77°F, is priced at $0.23 YES and $0.78 NO, with resolution set for 2026-07-13 at 12:00 UTC. Total volume stands at $55,514, with all of that volume moving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $53,027, which is thin enough that a single meaningful trade can reprice this contract fast.

How the July 13 San Francisco Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the highest recorded temperature in San Francisco on July 13 falls between 76 and 77 degrees Fahrenheit. Resolution is determined by the market’s designated data source. Any other temperature outcome, whether cooler or warmer, resolves this specific contract NO.

• YES ($0.23, 22.5% implied probability): The high temperature on July 13 lands in the 76-77°F range.
• NO ($0.78, 77.5% implied probability): The high temperature lands anywhere outside 76-77°F, including cooler bands like 73°F or below, 74-75°F, or warmer bands up to 92°F or higher.

The NO outcome covers a wide territory. San Francisco’s July climate skews cool, with marine layer influence from the Pacific keeping most summer highs well below 80°F in the city proper. The 76-77°F band sits above the typical July median but below the threshold where offshore flow or a heat event would be required. A cooler-than-expected day, driven by marine layer persistence or afternoon fog, would push the outcome into the 73-75°F bands and resolve NO here.

Momentum and Market Signals Heading Into July 13

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The momentum composite is bearish for this outcome. A 4.5% drop in the last hour, combined with a trend score of 44.22 (below neutral), points to active selling pressure on the 76-77°F band. The most likely driver is updated short-range forecast data, which in San Francisco’s microclimate can shift meaningfully overnight as marine layer timing and strength are refined. When NWS Bay Area or commercial forecast models revise their afternoon high projections even one or two degrees in either direction, thin markets like this one reprice sharply.

Volume context matters here. All $55,514 in volume moved in the last 24 hours, and open interest is zero. This is an active, same-day trading environment with no residual long-term positions. Liquidity at $53,027 means a few hundred dollars can move the price noticeably. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and right now it is expressing more confidence in outcomes outside the 76-77°F band than inside it.

• The 1h price change of -4.5% and trend score of 44.22 together signal active downward repricing, most likely tied to an updated afternoon forecast for San Francisco on July 13.
• All volume is same-day, confirming this is a short-duration, high-sensitivity trading environment.
• Thin liquidity ($53,027) means new forecast data or a sharp trade can move this contract several percentage points in minutes.
• The 76-77°F band competes against ten other outcome brackets, each absorbing probability from the distribution.
• Marine layer behavior overnight into July 13 is the single biggest variable for where the afternoon high lands.

Lines Analysis: San Francisco July High Temperature

The case for 76-77°F resolving YES rests on a specific meteorological setup: enough offshore flow to push the marine layer back before the early afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid-to-upper 70s, but not so much that readings push through 78°F or higher. San Francisco’s Sunset, Mission, and downtown zones frequently diverge by four to six degrees on the same afternoon. The measuring station location matters for resolution, and the 76-77°F band sits in a plausible but narrow sweet spot.

The barrier for NO is broad. If marine layer persists through noon, highs in the 73-75°F range become the likely outcome, and the NO side here wins by default. Alternatively, if offshore flow is stronger than current forecasts suggest, temperatures could push into the 78-81°F bands, again resolving this contract NO. The 76-77°F band requires a moderately warm but not exceptional July day, and right now the market assigns only about one-in-four odds to that specific landing zone.

• NWS Bay Area’s next forecast update for July 13 is the most direct signal to watch: any revision in the afternoon high projection shifts probability across the entire bracket distribution.
• Marine layer burn-off timing is the key physical driver. Early clearing favors warmer outcomes; persistent morning fog holds temperatures in cooler bands through the early afternoon.
• Commercial forecast model agreement (or disagreement) on the July 13 high will show up in market repricing before resolution.
• If temperature readings from nearby stations like Oakland or San Jose diverge sharply from city forecasts, it may signal stronger offshore influence than expected.
• Any significant wind shift overnight could accelerate or delay marine layer retreat and reprice the cooler brackets sharply.

The data doesn’t care about the politics, and here it is pointing toward meaningful uncertainty spread across a wide temperature distribution. With $55,514 in total volume, this market has genuine participation, but thin liquidity means prices are responsive to even small informational updates. The 76-77°F band is a real contender but sits in a contested field. The cooler outcome brackets hold the weight of San Francisco’s typical July climatology behind them.

LINES VERDICT

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The 76-77°F band is a plausible outcome for San Francisco on July 13, but the market’s rapid repricing lower reflects updated forecast data pointing toward either cooler or warmer outcomes. The specific band is too narrow to hold the majority probability in a multi-bracket market.

What the market says: At 22.5% implied probability, traders assign roughly one-in-four odds to this specific temperature band. Thin liquidity means that number can shift several points on a single NWS forecast update before tomorrow’s noon resolution.

Key unknown: The NWS Bay Area forecast update for July 13’s afternoon high, and overnight marine layer behavior heading into the morning, will determine whether probability flows into the 76-77°F band or disperses further into the cooler brackets below 75°F.