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San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Predictions

June 29 08:05 PM (Start in 6 Hours)
SDPA Wrigley Field

Padres vs. Cubs Matchup Overview

The San Diego Padres visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs on June 29th, 2026, at 8:05 pm. Check out the betting odds, with the Cubs at -154 on the moneyline and the Padres at +128. The over-under is set at 12.0. The Edge AI sports betting tool can help you find the best bets for this matchup. The Padres come in with a record of 43-39, while the Cubs are slightly better at 46-38. Fernando Tatis Jr. is a key player for San Diego, boasting a .284 batting average with 3 home runs and 30 RBIs. For the Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the way with a .279 average, 17 home runs, and 45 RBIs. Jackson Merrill is questionable for the Padres due to a back injury, which could impact their lineup. Recent matchups have seen the Cubs win two out of the last three games against the Padres, adding some extra intrigue to this contest.

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
  • Date: Monday, June 29, 2026
  • Time: 8:05 PM
  • Venue: Wrigley Field

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Padres -1.5 (-143) (+1.5 (-135 Hard Rock)), Cubs -1.5 (+117) (-1.5 (+122 BetMGM Sportsbook))
  • Total (Over/Under): 12.0 (-107/-115) (Over 11.5 (-114 BetMGM Sportsbook), Under 12.0 (-115 Hard Rock))
  • Moneyline Odds: Padres +128 (+135 ()), Cubs -154 (-154 (BetMGM Sportsbook))

Edge AI Win Probabilities

After 1,000 simulations, our model gives the Padres a win probability of 42%, while the Cubs have a win probability of 58%

Historically, the Padres and Cubs have had a competitive edge in their matchups, with the Cubs often capitalizing on their home field advantage at Wrigley. The Padres tend to rely on power hitting, while the Cubs showcase a more balanced approach, creating an interesting dynamic. Betting trends suggest that when these teams face off, home field can play a significant role, making it wise to consider the Cubs’ historical success at home in your betting strategy.

Projected Final Score

Our Edge AI predicts a final score of Cubs 6-4 Padres with a confidence score of 68%. These projections are based on 1,000 simulations and hundreds of data points, ensuring you have the most accurate predictions to inform your betting strategy.

Point Spread
42%
58%
Confidence Level: 70%

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Over/Under
42%
58%
Confidence Level: 65%

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Moneyline
42%
58%
Confidence Level: 75%

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When the Padres and Cubs face off, you’re looking at a clash of styles. San Diego often leans on its power hitters, while Chicago’s approach tends to be more about getting on base and manufacturing runs. Historically, Wrigley Field can play a big role in the money line, as the Cubs have a solid home advantage, but the Padres have shown they can take games on the road, making this matchup always worth a closer look for bettors.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Moneyline

The Padres face the Cubs at Wrigley Field with the Cubs holding a slight edge in the moneyline odds. San Diego’s lineup, led by Fernando Tatis Jr., could be tested against Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong and a solid home performance, making this matchup one to watch for moneyline bettors.

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San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Run Line

The San Diego Padres, with a 43-39 record, face off against the Chicago Cubs, who sit at 46-38. While the Cubs have a slight edge in the standings, the Padres’ recent performance against them suggests they could cover the run line. Matchups like Tatis Jr. against Crow-Armstrong will play a crucial role in determining the scoring margin.

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San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Over/Under

The Padres and Cubs have combined for an average of 10.5 runs in their last five meetings, indicating a potential for high scoring. With both teams showing offensive capabilities, the effectiveness of their starting pitchers could be crucial in determining if they hit the over or under in this matchup.

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43-39
All
46-38
23-21
Home
23-17
20-18
Away
23-21
25-17
as Fav
36-27
18-22
as Dog
10-11
40-42
ATS
33-51
18-26
ATS Home
13-27
22-16
ATS Away
20-24
36-44
O/U
45-38
19-24
O/U Home
21-19
17-20
O/U Away
24-19
RESULT
LOSE 4-2
DATE
06/28
SPREAD
O/U
u8.0
RESULT
LOSE 15-3
DATE
06/27
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
o8.0
RESULT
WIN 1-7
DATE
06/26
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
o7.5
RESULT
WIN 2-5
DATE
06/24
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
u7.5
RESULT
WIN 6-7
DATE
06/23
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
o8.5
RESULT
WIN 10-3
DATE
06/24
SPREAD
-1.5
O/U
o8.5
RESULT
LOSE 5-6
DATE
04/05
SPREAD
-1.5
O/U
o7.5
RESULT
WIN 4-3
DATE
06/28
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
u8.0
RESULT
WIN 8-2
DATE
06/27
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
o8.0
RESULT
LOSE 2-6
DATE
06/26
SPREAD
+1.5
O/U
o7.5
WHO WON
Cubs logo CHC
RESULT
5-4
DATE
04/29
WHO WON
Cubs logo CHC
RESULT
8-3
DATE
04/28
WHO WON
Padres logo SD
RESULT
7-9
DATE
04/27
WHO WON
Cubs logo CHC
RESULT
1-3
DATE
10/02
WHO WON
Padres logo SD
RESULT
3-0
DATE
10/01

BOX SCORE: MLB TEAM STATS & PLAYER STATS

0
At Bats
0
0
Runs
0
0
Hits
0
0
Walks
0
0
Strikeouts
0
0.296
On Base Percentage
0.335
0.365
Slugging Percentage
0.401
3.92
Earned Run Average
4.24
0
Earned Runs
0
0
Home Runs
0
0
Walks
0
0
Strikeouts
0
0
Strikeouts Per 9 Innings
0
1.30
Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched
1.25
Batters
AVG
HR
RBI
H
0.283
3
30
89
0.212
8
31
65
0.188
15
44
55
0.229
8
31
62
0.231
13
35
55
0.249
5
17
50
0.203
7
21
37
0.255
10
29
42
0.142
3
11
18
0.191
4
20
22
0.141
3
8
9
0.214
0
8
12
0.178
0
2
8
Starting pitcher
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
1-5
7.38
1.66
43
Pitchers
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
5-7
3.55
1.18
83
6-6
4.44
1.46
60
5-3
3.81
1.31
70
1-5
7.38
1.66
43
1-0
1.69
1.22
28
6-1
3.43
1.00
49
1-0
4.69
1.36
33
1-2
2.10
1.19
32
2-1
0.79
0.79
66
2-1
2.30
1.15
21
2-3
5.16
1.85
18
0-1
1.53
1.09
33
2-2
3.48
1.11
23
0-0
9.00
2.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0

INJURY REPORT

NAME
POS
STATUS
INJURY
NOTES
POS
CF
STATUS
Questionable
INJURY
Back
Notes
Merrill is dealing with a back injury and is uncertain to take the field for the Padres.
full roster and injuries
Batters
AVG
HR
RBI
H
0.242
4
36
80
0.239
6
27
77
0.278
17
45
88
0.236
9
45
71
0.224
17
41
67
0.190
11
46
51
0.262
12
37
66
0.276
4
29
53
0.231
6
23
36
0.246
4
20
32
0.232
5
16
26
0.227
3
10
25
Starting pitcher
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
5-6
4.40
1.05
88
Pitchers
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
5-6
4.40
1.05
88
5-5
4.80
1.41
63
5-4
5.10
1.40
65
4-2
1.85
0.94
65
2-5
5.19
1.30
59
3-2
3.47
1.35
45
1-0
3.53
1.21
18
5-1
1.99
1.11
31
0-1
6.08
1.76
31
0-2
4.21
1.40
17
2-2
4.30
1.22
29
2-2
2.74
1.04
10
2-1
2.70
1.38
19
0-0
0.00
0.33
2
0-0
18.00
2.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0
0-0
0.00
0.00
0

INJURY REPORT

NAME
POS
STATUS
INJURY
NOTES
POS
SP
STATUS
Questionable
INJURY
Finger
Notes
Cabrera is dealing with a blister on his right middle finger and is uncertain to make his next scheduled start for the Cubs.
full roster and injuries