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Big Tech

Market of the Day
49% Yes chance
Yes 49%
No 51%
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Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

$170 billion 95%
$180 billion 87%

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Anthropic 90%
Google 7%

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 88%
Google 9%

Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?

6% chance

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 100%
1550 84%

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by June 30?

1550 10%
1570 8%

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 80%
1580 55%

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

8% chance

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by…?

March 20 100%
March 27 100%

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by…?

June 30 14%
April 30 0%

GPT-5.4 released by…?

March 16 100%
March9 100%

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

13% chance