Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Prediction July 21

The Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees prediction strongly favors New York, the Polymarket leader at 80 percent entering Tuesday night’s contest at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees carry a 56-44 record and sit second in the AL East, while Pittsburgh arrives in the Bronx at 52-49 following an 8-5 loss in Monday’s series opener.

The market sent a loud signal over the past 24 hours, surging 34.5 percent to land at 80 percent for a Yankees win. The 1-hour change sits flat, and the trend score of 32.31 confirms the market has stabilized after a sharp run-up — a classic cooling pattern after a conviction move. New York holds 80 percent probability on Polymarket; Pittsburgh stands at 20 percent. The game takes place July 21, 2026, at Yankee Stadium, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Total lifetime market volume has crossed $160,089.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
B.Lowe 2B	0.245	21	65	90
B.Reynolds LF	0.282	14	59	103
N.Gonzales 3B	0.309	5	45	110
R.O'Hearn RF	0.281	16	64	90
O.Cruz CF	0.264	14	44	66
J.Mangum CF	0.301	2	20	74
S.Horwitz 1B	0.280	10	33	69
M.Ozuna DH	0.208	8	28	48
K.Griffin SS	0.276	5	25	62
J.Triolo SS	0.244	1	18	49
H.Davis C	0.167	8	27	29
E.Valdez RF	0.306	13	34	33
E.Rodríguez C	0.260	5	16	26
J.Gonzalez 1B	0.255	3	20	25
T.Callihan LF	0.241	3	15	20
N.Yorke 3B	0.197	1	6	15
B.Cook RF	0.220	0	2	9
J.Garcia RF	0.200	0	2	7
R.Flores Jr. C	0.333	1	2	4
D.Wendzel 3B	0.000	0	0	0
J.Brannigan SS	0.000	0	0	0

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
B.Chandler SP	3-8	4.77	1.45	85

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
B.Ashcraft SP	9-4	3.95	1.17	130
P.Skenes SP	9-8	3.43	1.04	138
M.Keller SP	6-7	5.14	1.33	77
B.Chandler SP	3-8	4.77	1.45	85
C.Mlodzinski SP	6-3	3.12	1.34	66
Y.Ramírez RP	6-2	3.27	1.36	59
D.Santana RP	2-5	6.05	1.51	37
G.Soto RP	5-2	3.98	1.11	46
J.Jones SP	2-1	4.05	1.10	48
M.Montgomery RP	2-3	3.92	1.26	58
E.Sisk RP	1-0	2.23	1.18	43
I.Mattson RP	0-0	4.13	1.38	29
B.Eisert RP	2-1	6.23	1.32	35
W.Dotel RP	1-2	5.06	1.22	24
B.Bidois RP	0-0	6.32	1.98	20
H.Barco SP	0-1	7.71	1.97	8
J.Urquidy SP	0-1	8.53	2.68	6
K.Curtis SP	0-0	0.00	0.80	4
A.Kelly RP	0-0	10.39	1.85	1
H.Stratton RP	0-0	5.40	1.80	3
C.Devenski RP	0-0	7.71	2.14	3
T.Callihan LF	0-0	0.00	2.50	0
M.Ozuna DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Lowe 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.O'Hearn RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Reynolds LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Cruz CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Mangum CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Triolo SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Wendzel 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
N.Gonzales 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
N.Yorke 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Valdez RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
H.Davis C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Cook RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Horwitz 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Brannigan SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Rodríguez C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Garcia RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Gonzalez 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.Flores Jr. C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Griffin SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Chris Devenski	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Illness	Notes Devenski is dealing with an illness and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He is expected to return in late July.
Oneil Cruz	POS CF	STATUS Out	INJURY Hand	Notes Cruz is dealing with metacarpal fractures and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in mid-July for the Pirates.
Wilber Dotel	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Lat	Notes Dotel is dealing with a right lat muscle strain and has been placed on the 15-day injured list. He is expected to return in early July.
Spencer Horwitz	POS 1B	STATUS Out	INJURY Hamstring	Notes Horwitz is dealing with a left hamstring injury and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in mid-July for the Pirates.

full roster and injuries

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
C.Bellinger LF	0.255	11	52	92
B.Rice 1B	0.281	29	68	99
J.Chisholm Jr. 2B	0.228	16	43	76
J.Caballero SS	0.247	10	37	70
T.Grisham CF	0.226	11	41	62
P.Goldschmidt 1B	0.259	15	42	65
R.McMahon 3B	0.217	9	26	47
A.Judge RF	0.248	17	38	53
A.Wells C	0.158	6	13	32
A.Rosario 3B	0.237	9	27	36
J.Domínguez RF	0.230	5	11	34
A.Volpe SS	0.245	1	14	35
G.Stanton DH	0.256	3	14	23
J.Escarra C	0.188	0	7	16
S.Jones RF	0.233	2	7	17
M.Schuemann SS	0.228	2	6	13
A.Sánchez C	0.229	0	4	8
O.Cabrera 3B	0.000	0	0	0

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
W.Warren SP	7-4	4.03	1.36	96

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
C.Schlittler SP	9-6	2.20	0.96	145
R.Weathers SP	3-7	4.40	1.27	115
W.Warren SP	7-4	4.03	1.36	96
M.Fried SP	4-3	3.21	1.01	50
G.Cole SP	3-5	3.93	1.16	55
P.Blackburn RP	2-1	2.08	1.08	38
B.Headrick RP	5-1	1.43	1.09	59
C.Rodón SP	4-2	3.30	1.25	52
F.Cruz RP	4-3	2.32	1.24	55
D.Bednar RP	4-3	2.59	1.08	47
R.Yarbrough RP	2-0	3.86	1.19	28
T.Hill RP	3-2	4.26	1.16	18
C.Doval RP	3-1	4.87	1.41	35
J.Bird RP	1-1	5.93	1.55	31
L.Gil SP	1-2	6.05	1.35	9
E.Rodríguez SP	0-2	4.77	1.77	10
A.Chivilli RP	1-0	0.87	0.77	11
Y.De los Santos RP	0-0	1.04	1.39	7
B.Beck SP	0-1	9.45	1.80	4
Y.Cruz SP	0-0	0.00	0.23	6
K.Castro RP	0-0	4.50	1.00	2
M.Schuemann SS	0-0	0.00	2.00	0
P.Goldschmidt 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Stanton DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Judge RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Bellinger LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Grisham CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.McMahon 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Rosario 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Sánchez C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Chisholm Jr. 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Caballero SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Cabrera 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Escarra C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Volpe SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Domínguez RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Wells C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Rice 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Jones RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Giancarlo Stanton	POS DH	STATUS Out	INJURY Calf	Notes Stanton is dealing with a calf strain and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Aaron Judge	POS RF	STATUS Out	INJURY Rib	Notes Judge is dealing with a stress fracture of his right rib and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Trent Grisham	POS CF	STATUS Out	INJURY Hamstring	Notes Grisham is dealing with tightness in his right hamstring and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Max Fried	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Fried is dealing with a left elbow bone bruise and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Ryan McMahon	POS 3B	STATUS Out	INJURY Ear	Notes McMahon is dealing with an ear infection and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
David Bednar	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Personal	Notes Bednar has been placed on the paternity list and not take the field for the Yankees.

full roster and injuries

PIT

NYY

34.77

At Bats

33.11

5.33

Runs

4.75

923

Hits

784

3.72

Walks

3.75

9.47

Strikeouts

8.99

0.341

On Base Percentage

0.315

0.427

Slugging Percentage

0.423

4.30

Earned Run Average

3.42

4.26

Earned Runs

3.37

1.05

Home Runs

1.00

3.59

Walks

3.02

925

Strikeouts

873

0.09

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0.09

1.32

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.19

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How the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Matchup Resolves

A New York Yankees win secures the YES outcome. A Pittsburgh Pirates win delivers the NO outcome. No draw is possible in this standard nine-inning MLB market. The current market gives New York an 80 percent probability and Pittsburgh a 20 percent probability.

• New York Yankees (YES): 80%
• Pittsburgh Pirates (NO): 20%

Pittsburgh’s path to victory runs through Bubba Chandler, the 23-year-old righty carrying a 3-8 record and a 4.77 ERA in 19 starts. Chandler punched out 85 batters across 94 1/3 innings but posted just 4 2/3 innings in his last outing against Milwaukee, surrendering two earned runs on five hits. A Yankees lineup averaging 9.0 hits per game over the last ten contests will challenge Chandler from the first pitch.

Market Signals and Form

The market’s 34.5 percent surge over 24 hours reflected a single sharp conviction wave, and the flat hourly reading confirms that move has fully settled. The trend score of 32.31 points to moderate momentum — strong enough to signal a real directional shift but not an overheated market. The catalyst is clear: Monday’s 8-5 Yankees win, fueled by 11 hits and two home runs, reset trader expectations for this series.

Total volume reached $160,089, with $159,464 of that trading in just the last 24 hours. That concentration of capital in a single session points to high conviction among active traders. Liquidity sits at $363,947, a level that supports efficient price discovery and tight spreads heading into first pitch.

Secondary markets show the Yankees as -1.5 spread favorites, with the game total set at 9.5. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 market carries a strong positive correlation with this matchup, meaning traders who back New York here tend to assign the Yankees a strong October path as well.

• New York Yankees recent form: 56-44 overall, second in AL East, 9.0 hits per game over last 10 contests
• Ben Rice: leads New York with four home runs and 11 RBI over the last 10 games, batting .405 in that span
• Jazz Chisholm: four home runs and a .250 average over the last 10 games
• Yankees pitching staff: 3.68 ERA over the last 10 games, with Will Warren getting the start Tuesday
• Momentum composite: 34.5 percent 24-hour surge, flat in the last hour, trend score 32.31 — market has priced New York decisively and cooled

New York Yankees Lines Analysis

New York’s case rests on a dominant home lineup, a pitching staff operating below a 3.70 ERA over the past ten games, and a fresh momentum signal from Monday’s convincing series opener. Ben Rice is locked in at the plate, and Jazz Chisholm’s four recent home runs add middle-of-the-order pop that Pittsburgh’s staff has struggled to contain. Will Warren takes the mound for New York, backed by a bullpen that allowed only 13 home runs over the last 10 outings.

Pittsburgh’s underdog case depends on a strong early outing from Bubba Chandler. The young righty holds a .230 opponent batting average this season, meaning he is capable of keeping hitters off-balance when his command is sharp. The Pirates also posted nine hits in Monday’s game, proving they can produce against New York’s staff. A low-scoring, pitcher-led game would keep Pittsburgh competitive into the late innings.

• Will Warren: scheduled starter for New York, backed by a staff 3.68 ERA over the last 10 games
• Bubba Chandler: 3-8 record, 4.77 ERA, 85 strikeouts in 94 1/3 innings entering this start
• Pittsburgh Pirates record: 52-49, fourth in NL Central, 4.49 team ERA over last 10 games
• Yankees offense: 15 home runs and 32 extra-base hits over last 10 games, slugging .454 in that span
• Trader sentiment: strongly bullish at 80 percent YES, 20 percent NO on Polymarket

Lifetime volume of $160,089 — almost entirely generated in Tuesday’s 24-hour window — underlines a single sharp moment of market agreement. Traders moved fast and hard toward New York after Monday’s result, and the price has held steady since.

LINES VERDICT

New York Yankees

The Yankees are the commanding market favorite entering Tuesday night, backed by elite recent offense, sharp pitching, and a dominant series-opener performance. Pittsburgh faces a difficult road against a New York club operating at a high level at home.