New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Prediction July 11

The New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals prediction tilts hard to the YES side of the first-five-innings over at 86 percent on Polymarket. Carson Palmquist is Washington’s confirmed starter with a 7.11 ERA in his brief MLB sample — and the market priced that vulnerability in fast.

The momentum composite tells a clear story. The price held flat over the last hour but surged 27 percent over the prior 24 hours, with a trend score of 31.15 confirming the market is settling after a sharp run-up. YES holds 86 percent, NO holds 14 percent. The market resolves July 18 with $206,796 in total volume — $204,677 of it arriving in a single 24-hour burst.

Where the Big Money Landed

Large traders committed $154,575 to the buy side over the last seven days, with zero dollars flowing to the sell side. Every tracked whale-sized trader backed the YES outcome — that the first five innings produce more than 2.5 combined runs — and no notable capital opposed that view.

Wallet 0x69c5…1e01 led the charge with a $81,818 YES position, then added a second trade of $72,757 on the same side. That single address committed over $154,000 in directional exposure — a level of concentration that signals conviction, not noise.

When whale capital piles on one side without any sell-side counterweight, the implied probability reflects genuine market agreement. The 86 percent consensus and the whale positioning are telling the same story.

How To Read This Table

• Trader: Wallet name or abbreviated address from the prediction market leaderboard.
• Amount: Total position size in USD committed to this specific market.
• Team Backed: Which team (outcome) the trader bought.
• ROI: The trader’s all-time return on investment across all markets, showing track record reliability.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
C.Bellinger LF	0.250	11	51	85
B.Rice 1B	0.275	29	66	91
J.Chisholm Jr. 2B	0.222	13	36	69
J.Caballero SS	0.250	10	34	67
T.Grisham CF	0.234	9	38	59
P.Goldschmidt 1B	0.260	14	41	61
A.Judge RF	0.248	17	38	53
R.McMahon 3B	0.214	8	25	43
A.Wells C	0.153	6	12	29
A.Rosario 3B	0.240	9	27	36
A.Volpe SS	0.248	1	13	33
J.Domínguez RF	0.242	5	11	30
G.Stanton DH	0.256	3	14	23
J.Escarra C	0.188	0	7	16
S.Jones RF	0.233	2	7	17
M.Schuemann SS	0.240	2	6	12
A.Sánchez C	0.267	0	4	8
O.Cabrera 3B	0.000	0	0	0

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
C.Schlittler SP	9-5	2.01	0.93	131

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
C.Schlittler SP	9-5	2.01	0.93	131
R.Weathers SP	3-7	4.15	1.24	110
W.Warren SP	7-4	4.15	1.37	94
M.Fried SP	4-3	3.21	1.01	50
G.Cole SP	3-4	4.04	1.20	47
P.Blackburn RP	2-1	2.31	1.14	35
C.Rodón SP	4-2	3.30	1.25	52
B.Headrick RP	4-1	1.57	1.13	52
F.Cruz RP	4-3	2.31	1.26	50
D.Bednar RP	3-3	2.77	1.10	44
R.Yarbrough RP	1-0	4.17	1.20	27
T.Hill RP	3-2	4.33	1.10	16
C.Doval RP	3-1	4.59	1.36	35
J.Bird RP	1-1	4.50	1.37	30
L.Gil SP	1-2	6.05	1.35	9
E.Rodríguez SP	0-2	4.77	1.77	10
Y.De los Santos RP	0-0	1.04	1.39	7
B.Beck SP	0-1	9.45	1.80	4
A.Chivilli RP	0-0	1.35	0.90	7
Y.Cruz SP	0-0	0.00	0.23	6
K.Castro RP	0-0	4.50	1.00	2
M.Schuemann SS	0-0	0.00	2.00	0
P.Goldschmidt 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Stanton DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Judge RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Bellinger LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Grisham CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.McMahon 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Rosario 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Sánchez C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Chisholm Jr. 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Caballero SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Cabrera 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Escarra C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Volpe SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Domínguez RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Wells C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Rice 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Jones RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Giancarlo Stanton	POS DH	STATUS Out	INJURY Calf	Notes Stanton is dealing with a calf strain and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Aaron Judge	POS RF	STATUS Out	INJURY Rib	Notes Judge is dealing with a stress fracture of his right rib and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Trent Grisham	POS CF	STATUS Out	INJURY Hamstring	Notes Grisham is dealing with tightness in his right hamstring and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Max Fried	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Fried is dealing with a left elbow bone bruise and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Ryan McMahon	POS 3B	STATUS Out	INJURY Ear	Notes McMahon is dealing with an ear infection and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
David Bednar	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Personal	Notes Bednar has been placed on the paternity list and not take the field for the Yankees.

full roster and injuries

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
D.Lile LF	0.251	10	44	91
J.Wood RF	0.273	26	62	99
C.Abrams SS	0.276	20	67	93
L.García Jr. 1B	0.287	20	68	85
J.Young CF	0.224	8	31	60
N.Nuñez 2B	0.245	1	28	64
C.Mead 3B	0.240	15	42	61
K.Ruiz C	0.279	7	35	55
J.Vivas 3B	0.246	3	16	43
D.Crews RF	0.220	6	18	37
J.Tena DH	0.234	5	20	39
B.House 3B	0.227	7	25	37
D.Millas C	0.188	2	11	24
J.Wiemer RF	0.286	3	12	20
A.Chaparro 1B	0.170	1	7	9

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
P.Poulin RP	3-0	2.83	1.31	22

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
F.Griffin SP	10-2	2.77	1.02	109
C.Cavalli SP	5-4	3.89	1.38	105
M.Mikolas SP	3-7	5.78	1.33	50
Z.Littell SP	7-6	4.90	1.31	57
B.Lord RP	5-2	3.88	1.22	52
J.Irvin SP	2-4	5.23	1.36	58
A.Alvarez SP	2-2	3.64	1.40	51
M.Parker SP	3-3	6.58	1.49	34
P.Poulin RP	3-0	2.83	1.31	22
J.Lawrence RP	0-3	7.56	1.98	42
G.Varland RP	1-2	6.25	1.77	30
P.Schultz RP	1-2	5.87	1.63	31
R.Lovelady RP	2-4	3.86	1.81	27
C.Beeter RP	3-1	2.96	1.21	31
O.Ribalta RP	0-1	3.29	1.17	23
Z.Kent RP	0-0	6.28	1.74	11
C.Henry RP	0-2	7.90	1.76	15
R.Cornelio SP	0-1	7.82	2.05	12
K.Waldichuk SP	0-0	6.75	1.50	8
A.Granillo RP	0-0	9.64	2.25	3
C.Palmquist SP	0-1	5.79	1.39	11
M.Krook RP	0-1	17.36	3.00	6
J.Fernández RP	0-0	2.25	1.25	3
J.Wiemer RF	0-0	22.50	4.50	0
E.Yean RP	0-0	0.00	0.50	3
J.Rutledge RP	0-0	47.25	6.00	2
J.Vivas 3B	0-0	40.50	6.00	0
T.Cosgrove RP	0-0	0.00	3.00	0
L.García Jr. 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Ruiz C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Tena DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Abrams SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
N.Nuñez 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Mead 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Chaparro 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Millas C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.House 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Lile LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Wood RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Young CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Crews RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Richard Lovelady	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Triceps	Notes Lovelady is dealing with a triceps strain and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Jake Irvin	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shoulder	Notes Irvin is dealing with a right shoulder strain and has been placed on the 15-day injured list. He is expected to return in early July for the Nationals.
Mitchell Parker	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Parker is dealing with elbow inflammation and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Ken Waldichuk	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Forearm	Notes Waldichuk is dealing with left forearm tightness and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He will miss the entire 2026 season for the Nationals.

full roster and injuries

NYY

WSH

33.16

At Bats

34.33

4.82

Runs

5.38

738

Hits

817

3.82

Walks

3.41

9.07

Strikeouts

8.26

0.317

On Base Percentage

0.324

0.423

Slugging Percentage

0.435

3.40

Earned Run Average

4.77

3.35

Earned Runs

4.76

0.99

Home Runs

1.41

2.96

Walks

3.51

818

Strikeouts

755

0.09

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0.08

1.19

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.40

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How the Yankees vs. Nationals First-Five Innings Market Resolves

The YES outcome resolves for traders if the combined run total through five innings exceeds 2.5 — meaning three or more runs before the sixth inning. The NO outcome resolves if the game stays at two or fewer runs through five frames.

• YES (Over 2.5 in First Five): 86%
• NO (Under 2.5 in First Five): 14%

The path to NO is narrow. Ryan Weathers carries a 4.29 ERA for New York — respectable but hittable. The Yankees lineup navigates real injuries: Aaron Judge is managing a rib issue with imaging coming at the All-Star break, and Giancarlo Stanton sits on the IL with a calf strain. Even so, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Paul Goldschmidt carry enough pop to score early against a pitcher as raw as Palmquist.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum composite reads as a market that sprinted and then settled. The 27 percent price surge in 24 hours landed the moment Palmquist’s start was confirmed. The flat hourly reading says traders have finished repositioning, and the trend score of 31.15 confirms deceleration rather than reversal.

Volume conviction stands out. With $204,677 arriving in one day against $608,823 in liquidity, the market absorbed heavy inflows without distorting the price. The full-game over/under is 9.5 and the Yankees carry a -1.5 spread. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 market is the most relevant same-sport reference, with New York at 29 percent — competitive, not dominant.

• Carson Palmquist ERA: 7.11 in his first MLB action — the primary YES driver
• Ryan Weathers ERA: 4.29, 104 strikeouts — solid but hittable
• Aaron Judge: Managing a rib injury; imaging scheduled for the All-Star break
• Giancarlo Stanton: On the IL, right calf strain, unavailable Saturday
• Momentum composite: Up 27% in 24 hours, flat past hour, trend score 31.15 — stabilizing

Yankees vs. Nationals Lines Analysis

The YES case rests on Palmquist’s ERA and a Yankees lineup capable of scoring early even without Stanton. James Wood, Dylan Crews, and CJ Abrams give Washington a credible offensive threat against Weathers, pushing the combined early total above 2.5 from both sides of the lineup.

The NO case needs Palmquist to locate early and Weathers to keep Washington quiet through three innings. At 14 percent implied probability, the market prices NO as real but remote — and zero sell-side whale activity says few sophisticated traders are buying that path.

• Watch Palmquist’s first-inning command — walks inflate early run totals fast
• Monitor Aaron Judge’s lineup status given his rib injury
• Check weather at Nationals Park — a delay flag was active at time of writing
• Any first-inning score shifts momentum sharply toward YES resolution

With $206,796 in total volume and nearly all of it arriving in 24 hours, the market crystallized fast around one data point: Palmquist’s ERA. The consensus is deep and the whale positioning is unanimous.

LINES VERDICT

YES — FIRST FIVE INNINGS OVER

Carson Palmquist’s ERA and a capable Yankees lineup make the YES outcome the clear market call, with every major signal pointing the same direction at Nationals Park.