Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Prediction July 11

The Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins prediction leans heavily toward the over on the first-five-innings total, with the market assigning an 80 percent probability to runs crossing the 2.5 threshold. Eury Pérez takes the mound for Miami coming off a 52-43 season record, while Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland as the Guardians try to claw back without injured star José Ramírez.

Polymarket’s 1st-5-Innings O/U 2.5 market surged 34 percent over the past 24 hours, a sharp one-day move that pushed confidence in the over to 80 percent. The price held flat in the last hour, and the trend score of 31.92 confirms the market stabilized after a strong run-up—not reversing, just cooling. This is Game 2 of a three-game series at loanDepot park in Miami, with the market resolving July 18, 2026. Total lifetime volume stands at $175,870.

Where the Big Money Landed

Large traders committed $58,333 in capital to this market over the past seven days, with every dollar landing on the YES side. Zero dollars flowed to the NO outcome. The whale-capital picture could not be more one-sided: large traders are unanimously backing the over in the first five innings.

The single largest position belongs to Supremeleader75, who placed $58,333 on the YES outcome—the over. No sell-side whale trades appear in the data. Supremeleader75’s entry represents the entirety of tracked large-trader activity in this market.

When all large-trader capital points in one direction, that concentration tells a story: sophisticated market participants share a strong conviction that at least three runs score across the first five frames. The whale activity reinforces, rather than diverges from, the overall 80 percent market price on the over.

How To Read This Table

• Trader: Wallet name or abbreviated address from the prediction market leaderboard.
• Amount: Total position size in USD committed to this specific market.
• Team Backed: Which team (outcome) the trader bought.
• ROI: The trader’s all-time return on investment across all markets, showing track record reliability.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
B.Rocchio SS	0.272	7	42	84
C.DeLauter RF	0.282	10	45	82
S.Kwan LF	0.221	1	14	64
J.Ramírez 3B	0.239	10	33	64
K.Manzardo 1B	0.213	10	29	56
D.Schneemann CF	0.209	6	28	50
T.Bazzana 2B	0.242	7	28	57
A.Martínez LF	0.239	11	33	54
R.Hoskins 1B	0.178	9	31	38
P.Bailey C	0.181	3	13	31
A.Hedges C	0.289	3	14	37
D.Fry RF	0.203	6	13	26
G.Arias SS	0.214	5	10	18
B.Naylor C	0.143	2	7	12
K.Watson RF	0.206	1	9	14
P.Halpin CF	0.167	0	1	9
J.Brito 2B	0.176	0	3	9
G.Valera LF	0.216	0	6	8
C.Kayfus LF	0.182	1	2	4
C.Ingle C	0.095	0	2	2
S.Fairchild RF	0.158	0	1	3

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
T.Bibee SP	2-9	4.06	1.14	84

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
G.Williams SP	10-4	3.81	1.15	134
P.Messick SP	8-5	2.73	1.07	110
T.Bibee SP	2-9	4.06	1.14	84
S.Cecconi SP	4-6	4.55	1.41	77
J.Cantillo SP	7-4	3.66	1.39	96
C.Smith RP	2-1	2.70	1.09	61
M.Festa RP	2-2	3.99	1.36	38
C.Holderman RP	4-2	1.84	0.87	39
T.Herrin RP	1-4	3.06	1.30	27
H.Gaddis RP	1-2	2.73	1.38	27
S.Armstrong RP	2-1	4.77	1.41	28
E.Sabrowski RP	3-1	3.62	1.35	48
P.Pallette SP	1-2	5.23	1.60	22
C.Brogdon RP	2-2	5.28	1.11	14
W.Dion SP	0-0	5.56	1.85	13
K.Allard RP	0-0	10.39	2.19	9
C.Heuer RP	0-1	5.63	1.88	6
F.Aleman RP	0-0	1.50	1.00	3
D.Espino SP	0-0	5.40	1.60	9
L.Allen SP	0-0	0.00	1.50	7
A.Hedges C	0-0	13.50	3.00	0
J.Ramírez 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.Hoskins 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Arias SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Fairchild RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Valera LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Rocchio SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Fry RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Naylor C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Kwan LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Schneemann CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Martínez LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
P.Bailey C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
P.Halpin CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Manzardo 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Watson RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.DeLauter RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Brito 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Ingle C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Kayfus LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Bazzana 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
José Ramírez	POS 3B	STATUS Out	INJURY Wrist	Notes Ramírez is dealing with a left fractured hamate bone and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Angel Martínez	POS LF	STATUS Out	INJURY Foot	Notes Martinez is dealing with a left foot fracture and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in late July.

full roster and injuries

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
O.Lopez SS	0.341	9	45	127
X.Edwards 2B	0.301	6	36	104
J.Marsee CF	0.200	5	25	64
L.Hicks C	0.285	13	57	83
K.Stowers LF	0.240	12	42	63
J.Sanoja 3B	0.273	3	34	60
O.Caissie RF	0.239	12	50	52
C.Norby 1B	0.205	4	16	41
H.Hernández LF	0.236	13	36	46
J.Mack C	0.240	7	23	36
A.Ramírez C	0.230	2	14	26
L.Jiménez 3B	0.217	2	8	23
E.Ruiz RF	0.245	4	9	23
G.Pauley 3B	0.176	1	11	16
G.Conine LF	0.260	4	11	19
C.Morel 1B	0.162	0	1	11
B.Navarreto C	0.222	0	0	2
D.De Los Santos 1B	0.286	0	0	2

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
E.Pérez SP	5-6	3.84	1.11	89

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
S.Alcantara SP	10-5	4.00	1.22	100
M.Meyer SP	9-1	2.58	1.11	116
E.Pérez SP	5-6	3.84	1.11	89
T.Phillips SP	2-3	3.28	1.37	55
J.Junk SP	4-5	4.57	1.31	48
L.Bachar RP	1-0	3.67	1.06	52
M.Petersen RP	1-1	2.93	0.98	48
J.King RP	6-2	2.48	0.75	30
C.Faucher RP	4-4	4.54	1.54	39
A.Bender RP	1-1	2.62	0.96	41
P.Fairbanks RP	3-3	6.75	1.43	38
R.Gusto SP	0-2	5.13	1.48	23
A.Nardi RP	3-3	5.16	1.41	27
C.Gibson RP	2-0	6.00	1.48	20
T.Zuber RP	0-0	3.97	1.32	12
W.Kempner RP	1-0	1.74	0.87	11
D.Fulton SP	0-0	2.57	0.86	6
J.Ekness RP	0-0	1.69	1.31	5
R.Snelling SP	0-1	5.40	1.80	2
B.Garrett SP	0-1	14.54	3.46	5
J.Sanoja 3B	0-0	6.00	1.33	1
Z.Brzykcy RP	0-0	4.50	1.50	2
J.White RP	0-0	67.50	7.50	1
B.Navarreto C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Ruiz RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
L.Jiménez 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Conine LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
X.Edwards 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Lopez SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
H.Hernández LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Stowers LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Ramírez C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Morel 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Caissie RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Mack C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Norby 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
L.Hicks C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.De Los Santos 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Marsee CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Pauley 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Anthony Bender	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shin	Notes Bender is dealing with a right shin stress reaction and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Janson Junk	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shin	Notes Junk is dealing with right shin inflammation and been placed on the 15-day injured list. He is expected to return in mid-July.
Robby Snelling	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Snelling is set to undergo Tommy John surgery and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He will miss the remainder of the 2026 season.
Andrew Nardi	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Rib	Notes Nardi is dealing with a stress reaction in his right rib cage and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He is expected to return in early September.
Josh Ekness	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Calf	Notes Ekness is dealing with a calf strain and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He is expected to return in mid-July.

full roster and injuries

CLE

MIA

32.85

At Bats

32.90

3.96

Runs

4.54

710

Hits

802

3.66

Walks

3.42

8.35

Strikeouts

7.92

0.307

On Base Percentage

0.330

0.368

Slugging Percentage

0.413

3.76

Earned Run Average

4.02

3.69

Earned Runs

3.89

1.15

Home Runs

0.97

3.32

Walks

3.33

852

Strikeouts

798

0.10

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0.09

1.26

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.23

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How the Guardians vs. Marlins Market Resolves

The primary market resolves YES if at least three runs score across the first five innings of this Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins game. The market resolves NO if two or fewer runs score through five. Alternative outcomes in the broader market include 1st-5-Innings spreads, higher over/under lines at 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, and 6.5, a full-game O/U of 7.5 and 8.5, NRFI, and an extra-innings market.

• Over 2.5 (YES): 80%
• Under 2.5 (NO): 20%

The Cleveland Guardians carry the underdog role on the full-game moneyline for this series, sitting at 40 percent on that market. Cleveland entered Saturday at 49-46, going 14-19 since June 1 and leaning heavily on pitching to stay afloat in the AL Central. Tanner Bibee carries a 2-9 record and a 4.06 ERA into this start—numbers that suggest Cleveland’s offense has struggled to support him even when the pitching holds up. José Ramírez remains sidelined with a fractured left hamate, still weeks away from a return, and his absence shows in a lineup averaging under four runs per game.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum composite tells one clear story: this market moved hard over 24 hours, adding 34 percentage points, then steadied in the last hour with zero change, while the trend score of 31.92 places it in a post-surge consolidation phase. The catalyst appears to be Eury Pérez’s recent form—the right-hander carries a 3.84 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but his strikeout totals and pitch efficiency leave open innings where Cleveland’s hitters can scratch out runs even without Ramírez.

Total volume of $175,870 landed in a single 24-hour window, meaning almost all market activity is fresh. Liquidity sits at $694,954, giving the 80 percent price strong structural support. The market is not thin—there is real depth behind this signal.

Secondary data strips show a full-game over/under of 8.5 and a spread line of -1.5 favoring Miami. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 market on Polymarket is the closest same-sport correlated event, and Cleveland’s current 29 percent probability there reflects the same market skepticism about the Guardians’ depth without Ramírez.

• Momentum composite: 34% surge over 24 hours, flat in the last hour, trend score of 31.92—market cooled after a rapid climb but holds conviction
• Tanner Bibee: 2-9 record, 4.06 ERA in 2026—below-average run prevention entering this start
• Eury Pérez: 5-6 record, 3.84 ERA, 1.10 WHIP—sharp enough to limit damage but not a dominant shutdown arm
• José Ramírez: sidelined with fractured hamate, on a five-to-seven week recovery timeline post-surgery
• Miami home record: 31-18 at loanDepot park this season, the Marlins’ strongest asset in this series

Lines Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins

The case for the over rests on two starters who are good enough to compete but not dominant enough to shut games down deep into five innings. Tanner Bibee’s 4.06 ERA means a typical Bibee start leaks runs, and Eury Pérez’s 3.84 ERA places him just slightly above average. Miami’s Otto Lopez—26 doubles, six triples, and nine home runs this season—gives the Marlins a lineup piece capable of doing damage early.

The under at 20 percent is not without logic. Both starters can post zeros across multiple frames, and Miami’s pitching staff ranks tenth in MLB with a 4.02 team ERA. A sharp Pérez outing through five, combined with a Cleveland offense missing Ramírez, makes a low-scoring first half plausible. Still, the market puts this path at just one-in-five odds.

• Eury Pérez efficiency: watch pitch counts early—if he works deep into five, the under gets support
• Cleveland offense without Ramírez: the Guardians’ run-production has dropped noticeably since his IL stint began
• Miami home advantage: the Marlins have won six straight entering this game and are 31-18 at home
• Tanner Bibee control: walks and early-count mistakes tend to generate crooked numbers against hot lineups
• Whale concentration: $58,333 entirely on the over from a single large trader adds conviction to the YES side

Total lifetime volume of $175,870 with $694,954 in liquidity makes this one of the more liquid same-day baseball markets on Polymarket. The 80 percent price reflects a consensus, not a thin spike.

LINES VERDICT

OVER 2.5 (1ST FIVE INNINGS)

The market and the whale capital both point decisively to the over, with two mid-rotation starters on the mound and Miami’s hot lineup ready to produce early at loanDepot park.