NYC May 5 Low Temp: Can 58-59°F Hold at One-in-Three?

Tomorrow morning, one temperature reading will settle this market. The National Weather Service measures New York City’s daily minimum temperature at Central Park, and right now the 58-59°F bracket holds a 33.5% probability — the single highest share in a field split across eleven possible outcomes. That edge is real but thin. Traders pushed the contract up 13.5% in the last 24 hours, which is a meaningful swing for a market resolving in less than 30 hours.

Total volume sits at $7,602, with $7,522 of that trading in the last 24 hours alone. Nearly all the activity arrived today. Liquidity is $6,406. At this volume level, a single moderate-sized bet moves the price sharply. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science — and with this many competing brackets, the math alone keeps any single outcome below 50%.

How the 58-59°F Contract Works

This market resolves on the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on May 5, 2026. The resolution window closes at 12:00 noon Eastern on May 5. The National Weather Service Central Park observation serves as the authoritative data source. Whichever temperature bracket contains the official daily minimum wins; all others pay nothing.

• 58-59°F (YES): $0.34 per share, implying 33.5% probability. Pays out if the official NYC low on May 5 falls between 58°F and 59°F inclusive.
• 60-61°F: Next-closest competitor. A warmer overnight pushes capital toward this bracket.
• 56-57°F: A cooler-than-forecast night shifts value here.
• 62-63°F and above: Require a notably warm overnight minimum, atypical but not impossible for early May.
• 54-55°F and below: Require meaningful cold advection, currently not the dominant forecast signal.

Missing the 58-59°F bracket doesn’t require catastrophic error. Early May NYC overnight lows cluster in a 10-degree range from roughly 50°F to 65°F. A two-degree forecast miss in either direction — entirely normal meteorological variation — lands the actual low in a neighboring bracket and zeroes out the leading position. The National Weather Service forecast is the key input, but model runs shift overnight, and surface observations at Central Park can diverge from broader metro-area readings.

Momentum and Market Signals

Sponsored Partner

The 13.5% jump in the last 24 hours, combined with a flat one-hour reading and a trend score of 47.68, points to a burst of directional conviction earlier today that has since stabilized. The most likely driver: an updated National Weather Service forecast or model run that placed the May 5 low squarely in the 58-59°F range, pulling volume into this bracket from competitors.

At $7,602 total volume, this is a thin market. The $7,522 registered in the last 24 hours means essentially the entire trading history is one day old. Liquidity at $6,406 is workable but not deep. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: a single large trade could reprice this contract by five to ten percentage points before the market closes tomorrow.

• 1h change: +0.0% — The 24-hour surge has stalled. No new catalyst arrived in the last hour to extend momentum.
• 24h change: +13.5% — Meaningful directional move. The 58-59°F bracket absorbed capital from competing outcomes, likely on updated forecast guidance.
• Trend score: 47.68 — Neutral-to-slightly-bullish composite. Not a runaway move. The market acknowledges forecast uncertainty.
• Volume concentration: $7,522 of $7,602 total traded in 24 hours. Thin historical base. Price discovery is effectively happening in real time.
• Liquidity at $6,406: Below the threshold where large bets absorb quietly. New money moves the needle visibly.

Lines Analysis: What the Forecast Says and Where It Can Break

The 58-59°F bracket leads because current National Weather Service guidance for New York City on May 5 places overnight lows in that range. Early May climatology supports it: the 30-year normal daily minimum for Central Park in early May runs between 51°F and 57°F, so a 58-59°F low represents a slightly above-normal but entirely plausible reading under warm air advection or residual daytime heat retention. If the forecast holds and model consensus tightens overnight, this bracket keeps its lead into resolution.

The data doesn’t care about the politics — but it does care about forecast uncertainty windows. The National Weather Service 24-hour forecast for a single-station overnight minimum carries a typical error range of plus or minus two to four degrees. That window spans at least two adjacent brackets. A surface high pressure system arriving faster than modeled drops the low into 56-57°F. A persistent southerly flow keeps the low in 60-61°F territory. Neither scenario requires unusual meteorology. Both scenarios zero out the 58-59°F position completely.

• National Weather Service evening forecast update (tonight, ~6-11 PM ET): The final model run before overnight hours is the single most important input. A shift of two degrees in the forecast low reprices the entire bracket field.
• Surface wind direction at Central Park: Sustained southerly flow after midnight keeps temperatures elevated. A wind shift to northwest accelerates cooling.
• Cloud cover overnight: Overcast skies trap heat and push lows higher. Clear skies allow radiative cooling and favor the lower brackets.
• Dew point readings after midnight: A dew point near or above 58°F acts as a floor for overnight minimum temperature.
• Competing bracket prices: If 60-61°F starts gaining volume after the evening forecast update, that’s a real-time signal the market is shifting warmer.

The $7,602 market size means this price reflects a small number of traders making directional calls on meteorological data. The 58-59°F bracket holds the best single-bracket probability in a multi-outcome field. The data favors it — but not by a margin that absorbs a routine forecast revision.

LINES VERDICT

Forecast Favorite in a Fragmented Field

The 58-59°F bracket holds the leading position because current forecast guidance supports it, but a two-degree shift in any direction reallocates the entire payout to a neighboring outcome.

What the market says: 33.5% probability — the highest single-bracket share, but still a minority position in an eleven-outcome market. Thin volume means this price can move sharply before the 2026-05-05 12:00:00 resolution cutoff.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service forecast update tonight is the single event that reprices this contract. A revised overnight low of 60°F or 57°F moves significant probability mass out of the current leader and into adjacent brackets.

Scientific Context

New York City daily minimum temperatures in early May have trended slightly warmer over the past three decades, consistent with broader urban heat island intensification and regional warming trends documented by NOAA. The 30-year climatological normal for Central Park daily lows in the first week of May sits in the low-to-mid 50s Fahrenheit. A 58-59°F minimum represents a reading roughly four to six degrees above that baseline — above normal but not extreme for a year that has already seen persistent warm anomalies across the northeastern United States. If the broader 2026 warm pattern holds through early May, the upper brackets gain structural support. But a single overnight weather system can override seasonal climatology entirely on a 24-hour resolution window this narrow.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 33.5% probability mean here? The market assigns a one-in-three chance the official NYC low on May 5 lands in the 58-59°F bracket. Eleven competing outcomes share the remaining probability.
• What happens to competing brackets if 58-59°F wins? All other bracket positions pay zero. Each bracket is an independent binary outcome. Capital in 56-57°F or 60-61°F is lost if the low lands elsewhere.
• What single event most moves this price? The National Weather Service forecast update tonight. A revised low temperature projection shifts bracket probabilities across the entire field within minutes of publication.
• When does this market resolve? Resolution closes at 12:00 noon Eastern on May 5, 2026, using the official National Weather Service Central Park daily minimum observation.
• Is $7,602 in volume enough to trust this price? Volume is thin. Nearly all of it traded in one 24-hour window. A single trade of a few hundred dollars moves this price noticeably. Treat the 33.5% figure as directional guidance, not a deep-market consensus.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-04 08:13:41. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-05 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.