NYC May 4 Low Temp: Will It Land in the Fifties?

The overnight low in New York City on May 4 is one of the tighter forecasting puzzles in short-range meteorology right now. The 50-51°F outcome carries a 58% probability on this contract, but the alternatives are not distant. Eleven outcome buckets span the range from 43°F or below all the way to 62°F or higher. Concentrating on any single two-degree band takes genuine conviction, and the market is showing some of that conviction today.

The contract resolves at 2026-05-04 12:00:00. The resolution source is the market itself, anchored to verified NYC overnight temperature data. Volume sits at just $6,351 total, with $5,574 of that arriving in the last 24 hours. Thin liquidity means this price can move sharply on a single updated forecast model run. That is not a flaw in the market. It is the nature of short-range weather trading.

How the Contract Works: The 50-51°F Threshold

The YES outcome pays if the lowest recorded temperature in New York City on May 4 falls specifically in the 50-51°F range. The resolution body is the market, drawing on official NYC temperature records. Ten alternative outcomes cover every other two-degree band from below 43°F through 62°F or higher. Traders picking YES are betting that the low lands in a four-degree window centered on 50°F, no higher and no lower.

• YES (50-51°F): 0.58 implied probability, 58%
• NO (any other outcome): 0.42 implied probability, 42%

The NO side of this contract pays out across ten different scenarios. Every alternative outcome from 52-53°F down to 43°F or below counts as a NO resolution. Early May in New York City carries real spread in overnight lows. A cold front pushing temperatures below 48°F or a mild southerly flow holding them above 52°F both send this contract to NO. The specific two-degree band is narrow enough that model disagreement alone can make the NO probability meaningful.

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Momentum and Market Signals: A Sharp Move in 24 Hours

The momentum composite here is striking for a weather contract with less than two days to resolution. The 1-hour change of +29.0%, the 24-hour change of +16.5%, and the trend score of 81.25 combine into a single directional signal: traders moved into the 50-51°F outcome aggressively as forecast models converged on that range. The most likely driver is a model update on May 3 showing the overnight low settling in that band as the timing of a frontal passage became clearer.

The $22,115 in liquidity versus $6,351 in total volume tells an important story. This market has depth relative to what has actually traded. A single updated weather model run or a sharp NWS forecast revision could move the price 10-15 percentage points before resolution. Thin volume with reasonable liquidity is the signature of a market that is sensitive to new information in real time.

• The 50-51°F outcome moved from 0.39 at open to 0.58 current, a 49% price gain, driven by forecast model alignment on May 3.
• The 1-hour gain of +29.0% suggests a specific model run or forecast update triggered a sharp repricing, not gradual drift.
• Total volume of $6,351 is well below $1M. Price can move sharply on any new National Weather Service guidance or model update.
• The 24-hour volume of $5,574 represents 88% of all trading activity. This contract came alive late and fast.
• Open interest is $0, meaning all positions are currently matched. No unresolved directional overhang is sitting in the book.

Lines Analysis: What the Forecast Data Is Saying

Here is what the measurements are telling us. Early May in New York City typically produces overnight lows in the 48-55°F range, depending on cloud cover, wind direction, and the exact timing of frontal systems. The 50-51°F outcome sits squarely in the center of that climatological spread. The sharp price move on May 3 reflects traders responding to forecast model convergence, not noise. When multiple global models align on the same temperature range two days out, that is a meaningful signal.

What makes NO real here is the spread of plausible alternatives. The 52-53°F outcome is the most likely single competitor. A southerly flow holding residual warmth into the overnight hours could push the low above 51°F. Conversely, a faster-than-forecast frontal passage could drag the low into the 48-49°F band. The data doesn’t care about the politics of weather forecasting. Two-degree resolution bins are narrow, and nature does not respect narrow bins on a regular basis.

• National Weather Service hourly temperature forecasts for Central Park on May 4 will be the single most important data source before resolution.
• Any model run showing the 850mb temperature anomaly shifting warmer or colder than current consensus would reprice this contract immediately.
• Cloud cover forecast changes affect the rate of overnight radiative cooling and can shift the low by 2-3°F.
• Wind direction at the surface overnight matters. A sustained southwesterly flow retains heat; a northwesterly flow accelerates cooling.
• The GFS and ECMWF model agreement level as of the final evening run on May 3 will set the market’s confidence before resolution.

The $6,351 in total volume is thin. The 58% probability reflects genuine model-driven conviction, but this market is one forecast revision away from a meaningful price shift. The data currently favors the 50-51°F outcome. The alternatives are not negligible.

LINES VERDICT

Narrow Band, Model-Driven Conviction

The 50-51°F outcome has earned its 58% probability through real forecast model alignment, not arbitrary pricing. The sharp move on May 3 reflects traders responding to convergent guidance, which is the right way to read a short-range weather contract.

What the market says: 58% probability that NYC’s May 4 overnight low lands in the 50-51°F range. With resolution at 2026-05-04 12:00:00 and thin volume below $1M, expect price volatility if the evening forecast models shift.

Key unknown: The final National Weather Service forecast for Central Park overnight lows on May 4, combined with the last GFS and ECMWF model runs on the evening of May 3, will determine whether this outcome holds or reprices sharply toward 52-53°F or 48-49°F.

Scientific Context: Early May Temperature Patterns in New York City

May in New York City sits in a transitional window. The average low for early May at Central Park runs between 49°F and 54°F, depending on synoptic pattern. The 50-51°F target range sits near the cool end of the climatological mean for the first week of May. That positioning is consistent with a post-frontal airmass scenario, where overnight temperatures fall into the low 50s but do not drop into the 40s. Historical variability for this date ranges broadly. Recorded May 4 overnight lows at Central Park have spanned from the upper 30s to the low 60s over the last 30 years. The current 58% probability reflects confidence that the synoptic setup points toward the cool-but-not-cold end of that range. The price before 2026-05-04 12:00:00 will move most on the final model run alignment or any shift in frontal timing.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 58% probability mean here? The market assigns a 58% chance that NYC’s May 4 overnight low falls specifically in the 50-51°F range, based on current forecast model alignment and trader positioning.
• What does the NO contract pay out on? NO resolves YES if the overnight low lands in any outcome other than 50-51°F, covering ten alternative two-degree bands from 43°F or below through 62°F or higher.
• What data or event would move the price most? A National Weather Service forecast update or a major GFS or ECMWF model run shifting the projected overnight low above 52°F or below 49°F would reprice this contract immediately.
• When does this contract resolve? Resolution is set for 2026-05-04 12:00:00, using verified NYC overnight temperature data as the resolution source.
• Is the volume reliable enough to trust the price? Total volume is $6,351, well below $1M. Liquidity is $22,115. The price can move sharply on thin volume. Treat the 58% probability as directionally meaningful but sensitive to new forecast information.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-03 07:11:48. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-04 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.