Miami June 1 Low Temp: 76-77°F Leads at 57%

Miami’s overnight low on June 1 is the question, and the market has swung hard in the last 24 hours. The 76-77°F bracket now sits at 56.5% implied probability after a 28% price surge heading into resolution. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: June overnight lows in Miami cluster tightly around the mid-to-upper 70s, and today’s atmospheric setup fits that range closely.

The market question asks for the lowest temperature recorded in Miami on June 1, 2026, resolving at 12:00 PM ET. The 76-77°F outcome trades at $0.57 YES against $0.44 NO. Total volume stands at $10,756, with $8,631 of that moving in the last 24 hours alone. Resolution is today.

How the 76-77°F Contract Works

This contract pays YES if Miami’s official low temperature on June 1, 2026 falls between 76°F and 77°F inclusive. The resolution source is market resolution, meaning the outcome depends on the recorded low from Miami’s official weather station. The contract closes at noon today, well after the overnight low window has passed.

• YES ($0.57, 56.5%): Miami’s June 1 low lands in the 76-77°F band.
• NO ($0.44, 43.5%): The low falls outside that band, in any adjacent or distant bracket.

The NO contract pays when the temperature settles outside 76-77°F. The two nearest competing brackets, 78-79°F and 74-75°F, capture most of that residual probability. A warmer-than-typical marine air mass pushing the low above 78°F, or an unexpected dry northerly nudging it below 75°F, would both defeat the leading bracket. Miami’s June lows have a narrow historical variance, which is exactly why this band commands majority probability.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is strong and directional. A 28% price jump in 24 hours combined with a trend score of 64.60 points to concentrated buying into the 76-77°F bracket as real-time overnight temperature data became available overnight into June 1. The 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting the market has largely priced in what it knows.

Total volume is $10,756, with $8,631 arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $14,886. Volume is below $1 million, which means this market can reprice sharply on any new weather observation. A single confirmed low reading outside the 76-77°F band would collapse the YES price immediately.

• The 28% 24-hour price surge reflects traders incorporating overnight Miami temperature readings as June 1 arrived.
• The 1-hour flat signal suggests price discovery is complete for now, pending final official data.
• Liquidity at $14,886 is sufficient to support the current price but thin enough for sharp moves on confirmation.
• The 78-79°F bracket is the primary competing outcome, capturing warmer marine layer scenarios.
• The 74-75°F bracket holds residual probability for a drier or slightly cooler air mass scenario.

Lines Analysis: Miami’s June Low Temperature

The data doesn’t care about the politics, and in this case the data is straightforward. Miami sits at the edge of the tropics in early June, with sea surface temperatures in Biscayne Bay running warm and overnight lows typically moderated by Gulf Stream moisture. The 76-77°F bracket aligns with the climatological mode for Miami June overnight lows, which is why it drew the plurality of volume as traders applied observed conditions.

The case for the NO side centers on bracket adjacency. Miami’s overnight low doesn’t need to move far to exit the two-degree window. A persistent marine layer holding residual warmth from the previous afternoon could push the low to 78°F or above. Conversely, a dry air intrusion or brief cold front passage, rare but not impossible in early June, could pull the reading below 75°F. The two-degree resolution window is narrow, and that narrowness is the structural risk for YES holders.

• National Weather Service Miami’s official low temperature reading is the decisive data point for resolution.
• A confirmed low at 78°F or above shifts probability sharply to the 78-79°F bracket and collapses the leading contract.
• Sea surface temperature anomalies in Biscayne Bay this week determine how much marine moisture moderates the overnight low.
• Any NWS data revision or station correction before noon ET could reprice this market in either direction.
• The flat 1-hour momentum signal suggests most tradeable information is already embedded in the current price.

Total volume of $10,756 is modest. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, at these volumes. The data currently favors the 76-77°F bracket, but the narrow resolution window means the official NWS reading is the only signal that matters before noon.

LINES VERDICT

SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD YES ON CLIMATOLOGICAL ALIGNMENT

Miami’s June 1 overnight low clusters historically in the mid-to-upper 70s, and the 28% overnight price surge reflects traders incorporating real observed conditions. The two-degree bracket window remains the core risk.

What the market says: At 56.5% implied probability, the market treats 76-77°F as the most likely single outcome but not a certainty. With resolution at noon today, volatility is minimal unless an NWS reading surfaces outside the bracket.

Key unknown: The single most important data point is the official National Weather Service Miami low temperature reading for June 1. That number, once confirmed, resolves this market with no further uncertainty.