Seoul July 27 High Temp: Market Locked at 31°C

Seoul’s weather on July 27 has the prediction market priced like a settled fact. The 31°C outcome sits at 99.4% implied probability, a figure that reflects real-time temperature tracking, not speculation about what might happen. The market moved from 25 cents to 99 cents in under 24 hours. That kind of repricing happens when observational data catches up to a contract.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Seoul on July 27? The 31°C outcome trades at $0.99 YES and $0.01 NO. The contract resolves at 12:00 UTC+9 on July 27, 2026. Total volume stands at $216,832, with $192,593 of that arriving in the last 24 hours alone.

How the 31°C Seoul Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Seoul’s official daily maximum temperature on July 27 reaches exactly 31°C. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operates the Seoul observation station that determines resolution. Competing outcomes include 32°C, 33°C or higher, 30°C, and a range of lower readings down to 23°C or below. Only one outcome pays out.

• YES ($0.99): Seoul’s recorded daily high on July 27 equals exactly 31°C.
• NO ($0.01): Seoul’s recorded high lands at any other temperature, whether 30°C, 32°C, or outside that band entirely.

The NO outcome pays if the KMA station records anything other than exactly 31°C as the daily maximum. Late afternoon heat spikes or an unexpected storm-driven temperature drop could push the reading to 32°C or 30°C respectively, either of which collapses this contract to zero. At 1 cent, that risk is priced as minimal but not zero.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals: A Contract That Moved Fast

The momentum signal here is as strong as it gets. The 1-hour change of +2.4%, the 24-hour change of +63.9%, and a trend score of 67.11 all point in one direction. That composite reflects live temperature data coming in from Seoul through the afternoon hours, with the market converging on 31°C as the observed or near-certain outcome.

Volume tells the conviction story directly. Total volume reached $216,832, with $192,593 arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $213,827. This is not a thin market making noise. That volume level means the price signal carries real weight. When a contract this close to resolution sees that kind of inflow, the market is processing real-time information, not noise.

Key Factors

• The 24-hour price change of +63.9% combined with a trend score of 67.11 signals that observational data, not sentiment, is driving this contract toward 99 cents.
• The 1-hour change of +2.4% shows the market is still tightening, not stalling, as resolution approaches.
• Total volume of $216,832 with $192,593 arriving in 24 hours reflects high-conviction positioning consistent with near-confirmed data.
• Liquidity of $213,827 means this price is real. A single large trade will not move it materially at this stage.
• The contract resolves at 12:00 on July 27, meaning the observation window is effectively closed or closing as this analysis publishes.

Lines Analysis: What the Seoul Temperature Data Is Telling Us

The KMA observation record for Seoul in late July puts average daily highs in the 29°C to 33°C range, with 31°C sitting squarely in the middle of that distribution. The market’s 99.4% probability is not claiming Seoul hit an unusual temperature. The market is saying the measurement came in at exactly the 31°C bucket, and traders with access to current KMA data have priced that conclusion with near certainty. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: this is not a forecast market anymore. It is a settlement market.

The genuine risk for the NO outcome runs in two directions. A reading of 32°C or higher would mean afternoon heat exceeded the 31°C bucket threshold. A reading of 30°C or lower would mean cooling conditions or a timing artifact in the station’s daily maximum recording. At 1 cent, the market assigns that combined probability at roughly 0.6%. That is not zero, but it reflects the precision of KMA’s temperature bucketing rather than any real meteorological uncertainty at this stage.

Signals to Monitor

• KMA official daily maximum publication for July 27 will confirm or deny the 31°C reading and is the single resolution trigger.
• Any revision to the Seoul station’s daily maximum after initial publication would directly affect contract resolution.
• A final afternoon temperature spike above 31.5°C before the observation window closes could push the recorded maximum into the 32°C bucket.
• Storm activity or rapid cloud cover over Seoul before the daily high is set could compress the reading toward 30°C and flip this contract.
• The related market for 32°C trades at a deep discount, implying the market sees very little probability of the higher outcome materializing today.

Total volume of $216,832 with late-surge concentration reflects a market that has essentially resolved itself in real time. The data favors the YES side. The 1-cent NO price is the market’s last honest acknowledgment that until KMA publishes officially, a nonzero tail exists. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and in this case, there are no politics. There is only the thermometer.

LINES VERDICT

EFFECTIVELY SETTLED

The 31°C outcome for Seoul on July 27 has been priced to near-certainty by a market processing live observational data. The volume surge and momentum composite reflect real information, not speculation.

What the market says: At 99.4% implied probability, the market has concluded that Seoul’s July 27 daily maximum is 31°C. With the contract resolving at 12:00 on July 27, volatility risk is essentially the tail probability of a KMA measurement landing in a different temperature bucket.

Key unknown: The single event that reprices this contract is KMA’s official publication of the Seoul daily maximum for July 27. Any reading other than exactly 31°C sends this contract to zero regardless of current pricing.