Chongqing July 26 Peak Temp: Market Locks In at 41°C

By the time most traders checked this contract on July 26, the market had already decided. The 41°C outcome for Chongqing’s peak temperature today carries a 98% implied probability, and the momentum behind that number is not subtle. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and right now the data is screaming heat.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Chongqing on July 26? The 41°C outcome trades at $0.98 YES / $0.02 NO, with the contract resolving at 12:00 UTC on July 26, 2026. Total volume across all outcomes stands at $77,847, with $44,222 of that trading in the last 24 hours alone.

How the 41°C Contract Works

A YES resolution requires Chongqing’s official peak temperature on July 26 to register at exactly 41°C, as confirmed by the designated meteorological source for this market. A NO resolution pays out if the day’s high comes in at any other level, whether that is 40°C, 42°C, or anything else on the outcome ladder.

• YES (41°C): $0.98 per share, 98% implied probability
• NO (any other outcome): $0.02 per share, 2% implied probability

The NO side pays out when Chongqing’s peak temperature lands outside the 41°C bucket. That means either a cooler day, with temperatures settling at 40°C or below, or a hotter one, with readings pushing to 42°C or higher. At 2 cents per share, the market is treating both of those scenarios as near-impossible. A sharp cooling event or an accelerating heat spike above 42°C would be the only paths to a NO payout.

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Momentum and Market Signals

Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the composite momentum signal combining the +25.5% one-hour price change, +40.5% twenty-four-hour price change, and a trend score of 87.95 points to real-time temperature data confirming the 41°C range. That kind of intraday surge does not happen on speculation. It happens when live weather station readings land inside the target bucket and traders reprice accordingly.

The $44,222 in 24-hour volume against $220,197 in liquidity gives this market reasonable depth for a single-day weather contract. Total volume at $77,847 is below the $1M threshold, which means a large unexpected trade could still move the price. But the liquidity cushion is real. The order book is not thin.

• The one-hour and twenty-four-hour price changes both accelerated sharply today, consistent with live station data confirming temperatures in the 41°C range during Chongqing’s afternoon peak window.
• Trader sentiment sits at 98% YES / 2% NO, the strongest directional lean possible for a multi-outcome market.
• The trend score of 87.95 out of 100 places this contract in the top tier of momentum-confirmed markets on the platform.
• Volume concentration in the last 24 hours (57% of total volume) confirms this is a fresh signal, not stale positioning.
• The 41°C outcome now prices above every adjacent bucket, including 40°C and 42°C, which have not drawn meaningful capital.

Lines Analysis: Chongqing Heat and the 41°C Window

Chongqing sits in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most heat-prone urban environments in China during July. The city routinely ranks among China’s hottest locations in summer, with peak temperatures frequently exceeding 40°C during July heat events. The basin geography traps heat and suppresses wind, which means afternoon temperature readings can hold at extreme levels for hours. The sharp intraday price movement today is consistent with afternoon station data landing at 41°C and traders locking in that result.

The risk to this position is a late-afternoon temperature spike above 42°C. Chongqing’s basin effect can push readings higher than expected when regional circulation patterns stall. A 42°C reading would shift resolution to the adjacent outcome and convert the 41°C YES into a loss. Similarly, an earlier-than-expected peak followed by rapid cooling could push the daily maximum to 40°C, though the current trajectory makes that scenario remote. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and right now both sources agree on 41°C.

• China Meteorological Administration station data for Chongqing: any official afternoon high reading above 41°C would immediately reprice the 42°C bucket upward.
• Regional synoptic charts: if a trough moves through the Sichuan Basin before the peak window closes, temperatures could pull back and shift resolution to 40°C.
• Automated weather station updates from Shapingba or Beibei districts: these are the reference stations most likely used for official daily maximum records.
• Final official temperature publication: resolution depends on the confirmed daily maximum, not intraday observations.

The $77,847 in total volume reflects a market that has been actively traded as new data arrived today. The data favors the 41°C YES outcome. The adjacent 42°C bucket is the only live competitor, and it has not attracted meaningful capital. That tells you where the weight of evidence sits.

LINES VERDICT

NEAR-CERTAIN YES

Live temperature data from Chongqing on July 26 has driven a 41-point probability surge in under 24 hours. The market has already priced this as settled, and the momentum is driven by real-time station readings, not sentiment.

What the market says: At 98% implied probability, the market treats a 41°C peak as the confirmed outcome for today. The only meaningful volatility risk is a late-afternoon temperature reading above 42°C before the 12:00 UTC resolution window closes.

Key unknown: The single most important data point is the final official daily maximum from China Meteorological Administration stations in Chongqing. If that reading lands at 42°C rather than 41°C, the contract reprices sharply in the final minutes before resolution.