Will Trump Be Impeached Before End of 2026?

The Trump impeachment market on Polymarket has not moved in 24 hours. Not a single cent. That kind of stillness is its own signal: traders who watch this contract daily have reached a consensus so firm that nobody is fighting over price discovery anymore.

The “Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?” contract sits at 12 percent YES and 88 percent NO as of April 2, 2026. With $649,936 in total volume traded and a December 31, 2026 resolution date still nine months out, the market is essentially telling you this outcome is about as likely as a coin landing heads three times in a row.

How the Trump Impeachment Contract Works

This Polymarket contract resolves YES if the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach President Trump before December 31, 2026. A Senate conviction is not required. The House vote alone triggers YES resolution.

• YES: House votes to impeach Trump. Price: $0.12. Probability: 12%. Resolves: December 31, 2026.
• NO: House does not vote to impeach Trump by deadline. Price: $0.88. Probability: 88%. Resolves: December 31, 2026.

NO buyers need one thing: Republican House leadership keeps impeachment off the floor. That is not a stretch. Republicans currently control the House, and party leaders have shown no appetite for turning against a sitting Republican president. NO loses only if a sudden, severe political rupture breaks House Republican unity and forces a floor vote. Short of a constitutional crisis with bipartisan momentum, NO holders sleep well.

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What the Money Flow Actually Tells You

The momentum composite here is flat across every dimension. The Trump impeachment contract shows a 1-hour price change of 0.0 percent, a 24-hour change of 0.0 percent, and a trend score that reflects complete inertia. There is no buying pressure and no selling pressure. The market is parked.

Total volume of $649,936 reflects months of accumulated trader interest, but the 24-hour volume of just $896 tells you activity has dried up almost entirely. Available liquidity stands at $35,210. That is a thin order book for a political market this visible, which means any sudden news event could move price sharply on limited capital.

• 24h price change: 0.0% — The Trump impeachment contract has not budged in 24 hours, confirming near-total consensus.
• 1h price change: 0.0% — Intraday activity is nonexistent. No traders are repositioning on short time horizons.
• $896 in 24h volume — Compared to $649,936 total, daily activity represents roughly 0.1 percent of lifetime volume. The crowd has spoken and gone home.
• $35,210 in liquidity — A thin book relative to the contract’s history. A single motivated trader could shift price meaningfully.
• 30-day range: $0.09 to $0.15 — The contract has stayed in a narrow band all month. No external shock has cracked the ceiling.

Lines Analysis: Trump Impeachment Odds

The math doesn’t lie. At 12 percent, the market is pricing impeachment as a long-shot scenario, not a live threat. Republicans hold the House. Impeachment requires a simple majority floor vote, but it first requires leadership to schedule one. Kevin McCarthy’s removal in 2023 showed that House Republican unity is fragile, but that fracture ran in the opposite direction from anything that would help Democrats force an impeachment vote. The structural barrier is high and stable.

Here’s what the market is missing: the YES case is not zero. A catastrophic second-term scandal, a sudden shift in House control through special elections, or an unexpected constitutional confrontation could reopen the conversation. The 30-day low of $0.09 suggests the market briefly priced impeachment as even less likely. The current 12 percent reflects a small but real acknowledgment that nine months is a long time in American politics.

• House Republican control — Any erosion of the Republican House majority before December 31, 2026 would push YES price sharply higher.
• Trump approval collapse — A sustained drop below 35 percent approval could soften Republican resistance to impeachment proceedings.
• DOJ or special counsel action — Criminal referrals or new legal exposure historically shift political calculation in the House.
• Related market signals — The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 72 percent and US forces entering Iran at 70 percent. Foreign policy escalation that damages Trump politically could feed into impeachment sentiment.
• 24h volume recovery — If daily volume climbs back above $10,000 on this contract, that signals a news catalyst worth tracking.

With $649,936 in total volume, this market has real conviction behind it. The 88 percent NO probability is not noise. It reflects months of informed traders pricing in the structural reality of Republican House control. The data favors NO, and nothing in the current momentum signals a reason to fight that read.

LINES VERDICT

NO: House Does Not Impeach Trump

Republican control of the House creates a structural ceiling on this outcome. Without a dramatic break in party unity, an impeachment vote does not reach the floor.

What the market says: Traders price the Trump impeachment probability at roughly one-in-eight. With the resolution date nine months away, the thin daily volume suggests price is unlikely to move unless a major political event forces a reassessment.