Will Maduro Be Found Guilty on All Counts?

The money flow on this contract is telling a clear story: traders have been walking away from YES at a steady pace. The Maduro guilty-on-all-counts market sits at 26%, down from a market open of 37 cents. That 11-point slide represents real conviction from NO holders, not noise.

The Maduro guilty of all counts? contract on Polymarket prices YES at $0.26 and NO at $0.74 as of April 2, 2026. Total volume stands at $99,130 with a December 31, 2027 resolution date. With $49 traded in the past 24 hours and $11,571 in available liquidity, this is a low-activity market right now. But the direction of that low activity is unambiguous.

How the Maduro Guilty Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty on all criminal counts in a formal legal proceeding before December 31, 2027. It resolves NO if any count is not proven, proceedings stall, or no verdict is reached by the deadline.

• YES: Maduro convicted on every count. Price: $0.26. Probability: 26%. Resolves: December 31, 2027.
• NO: Maduro not convicted on all counts by deadline. Price: $0.74. Probability: 74%. Resolves: December 31, 2027.

A NO buyer needs one of three things: proceedings that never reach a full verdict, acquittal on at least one count, or the December 31, 2027 deadline to expire without resolution. All three are historically probable given Maduro’s control over Venezuelan institutions and the complexity of international prosecutions. NO loses only if a functioning court delivers a complete, multi-count guilty verdict within 21 months.

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Market Signals Point to Deepening NO Conviction

The momentum composite here is unambiguous. The 24-hour price change on YES sits at -0.5%, the 7-day change is -6.0%, and the trend score reads as selling pressure throughout. Maduro YES has shed ground consistently. The math doesn’t lie: this is not a wobble, it’s a directional move.

The volume picture reinforces that read. Total volume of $99,130 across the contract’s life is modest. The 24-hour figure of $49 is near-zero. Available liquidity at $11,571 means any meaningful new capital would move this price noticeably. The lack of buyers at 26 cents says traders who want NO already have it, and nobody is rushing to buy the dip on YES.

• YES price trend (1h + 24h): Both negative with low trend score. Sustained selling pressure on YES, no reversal signal.
• 24-hour volume ($49): Near-zero activity. Market participants are not debating this contract right now.
• Total volume ($99,130): Modest lifetime engagement. This is not a high-conviction institutional market.
• Liquidity ($11,571): Thin book. A single $500 bet moves the needle. Treat price swings with that context in mind.
• 7-day price change (-6.0%): The steepest signal in the dataset. YES has been unwinding for a week straight.

Lines Analysis: What the Maduro Market Actually Says

The case for YES at 26% rests on one real factor: the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Maduro in March 2020 on narco-terrorism charges, and those charges remain active. If U.S. geopolitical pressure escalates, or if Venezuelan internal dynamics shift dramatically, a prosecution pathway opens. At roughly one-in-four odds, the market is not dismissing that possibility entirely. It’s just discounting it heavily.

The case for NO is structural. Maduro controls Venezuelan courts. The DOJ indictment requires either extradition or a regime collapse to produce a trial. Neither has happened. The 74% NO probability reflects the base rate of sitting authoritarian leaders facing full criminal conviction within a fixed timeline. Here’s what the market is missing: the resolution deadline of December 31, 2027 is the single biggest NO factor. Even if proceedings accelerate, a complete guilty-on-all-counts verdict in under two years is an extremely compressed timeline for any complex international prosecution.

• Extradition status: No active extradition proceedings. Any movement here pushes YES sharply higher.
• Venezuelan opposition strength: Declining opposition leverage reduces the internal pressure pathway to prosecution.
• U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela: Sanctions posture shifts directly correlate with prosecution probability. Watch executive branch signals.
• DOJ case activity: Any new indictments or superseding charges would signal renewed prosecutorial momentum for YES.
• Regional court involvement: ICC or OAS-linked proceedings could create an alternative conviction pathway before the deadline.

The $99,130 in total volume signals a market that attracted early interest and then stalled. That stall happened as the price slid from open. Traders bought NO and stopped engaging. The data favors NO by a wide structural margin, and the momentum confirms that read. Nothing in the current signal set suggests YES is poised for recovery before December 2027.

LINES VERDICT

NO Holds the Structural Edge

The timeline is too compressed and the prosecution pathway too dependent on events outside any court’s control for YES to close the gap.

What the market says: At roughly one-in-four, traders are pricing a real but low-probability outcome. The December 31, 2027 deadline creates hard resolution pressure, and with nearly 21 months remaining, volatility is possible on any geopolitical shock.