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Elections

Market of the Day
19% Yes chance
Yes 19%
No 81%
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Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14?

2% chance
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Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Sweden Democrats (SD) 62%
Moderate Party (M) 32%
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Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

Moderate Party (M) 62%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 36%

Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory

Burnham 9%+ 35%
Burnham 6-9% 24%

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

Morena 83%
PRI 11%

LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?

Bass 5–10% 94%
Bass 0–5% 2%

GA-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Joyce Marie Griggs 88%
Amanda Hollowell 13%

Makerfield by-election Winner

Andy Burnham 74%
Robert Kenyon 26%

California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Fiona Ma 92%
Josh Fryday 5%
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Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?

73% chance

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

45% chance

Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Bakir Izetbegović 57%
Denis Bećirović 43%
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Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Darijana Filipović 56%
Slaven Kovačević 31%

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Željka Cvijanović 74%
Branko Blanuša 7%

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 43%
PSD + AUR 42%
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Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

PNL 40%
Independent/Technocrat 33%
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Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?

18% chance
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Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PNL 65%
PSD 60%

France United Left Primary Winner

Canceled 51%
Marine Tondelier 18%
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Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Alexandru Nazare 7%
Radu Burnete 6%

Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30?

3% chance

Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

National + ACT + NZF 48%
National + ACT + Maori 37%

Next Premier of Quebec

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 58%
Charles Milliard 25%

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei 48%
Axel Kicillof 43%
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Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Likud 42%
Yashar 27%
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2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate

Jordan Bardella 75%
Marine Le Pen 22%

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

North Carolina 96%
California 95%

Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?

2% chance

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Labour Party 57%
Green Party 54%

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

45-49 37%
25-29 35%

NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?

30-34 44%
35-39 37%
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New Zealand Election: Turnout

78-80% 42%
<76% 35%
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NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Labour 15%+ 43%
National 0-5% 36%