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Fed Rates

Market of the Day

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

$42 Volume ↓ 6.5% today
Pause–Pause–Pause 65% Yes No
Pause–Pause–Cut 19% Yes No
Other 18% Yes No
+6 more
65% Leading
Pause–Pau… 65%
Pause–Pau… 19%
Other 18%
+6 more
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Fed rate cut by…?

December Meeting 24%
October Meeting 16%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.5% 100%
↑ 4.25% 23%

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.3% 100%
4.4% 100%

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

4.0% 100%
3.9% 40%

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

10% chance

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 77%
1 (25 bps) 14%
Resolved

Fed Decision in September?

No change 82%
25 bps decrease 21%
Resolved

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

May 15–22 98%
May 23–29 2%
Resolved

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

0% chance
Resolved

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 100%
Judy Shelton 0%
Resolved

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by…?

May 31 100%
June 30 100%
Resolved

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause 100%
Other 0%