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Fed Rates

Market of the Day

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

$42 Volume ↓ 5.5% today
Pause–Pause–Pause 66% Yes No
Pause–Pause–Cut 19% Yes No
Other 18% Yes No
+6 more
66% Leading
Pause–Pau… 66%
Pause–Pau… 19%
Other 18%
+6 more
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Fed Decision in September?

No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? 68%
1 22%
Moving Now

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Pause–Pause–Pause 66%
Pause–Pause–Cut 19%

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

1% chance

Fed Decision in July?

No change 93%
25 bps increase 6%

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause 99%
Other 0%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.0% 34%
3.75% 31%

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

1% chance

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3% chance

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

December 31 40%
May 30 0%

Fed Decision in June?

No change 99%
25 bps increase 0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

50% chance