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Market of the Day

Lowest temperature in Paris on June 16?

$17.2k Volume ↑ 63.3% today
19°C 99% Yes No
18°C 2% Yes No
17°C 1% Yes No
+8 more
99% Leading
19°C 99%
18°C 2%
17°C 1%
+8 more
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Will Spark launch a token by ___ ?

December 31, 2026 40%
December 31, 2027 40%

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

400-500k 49%
500-600k 20%
Moving Now

Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?

December 31, 2026 55%
September 30, 2026 45%

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

31% chance

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

$1B 27%
$2B 17%

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by…?

December 31, 2026 12%
June 30, 2026 1%

Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?

6% chance

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

15% chance

China coup attempt before 2027?

3% chance

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

2% chance

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

9% chance

Which cities will Waymo launch in by June 30?

Miami 100%
Nashville 35%
Moving Now

How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?

7 42%
11 19%

StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$200M 64%
$400M 35%

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 69%
Alphabet 15%

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Elon Musk 94%
Warren Buffett 1%

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.3% 100%
4.4% 100%

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

4.0% 100%
3.7% 39%

GDP growth in 2026

>2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 18%

Iran Nuke before 2027?

8% chance

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

17% chance

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

9% chance

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

19% chance

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 54%
Toy Story 5 24%

Paradex FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$40M 100%
$1.5B 0%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

2 68%
1 24%

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

9% chance

Will Backpack launch a token by ___ ?

March 31, 2026 100%
December 31, 2026 100%

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

5% chance
Moving Now

Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner

John Hickenlooper 87%
Julie Gonzales 9%

Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner

Mark Baisley 99%
Janak Joshi 1%

Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

2% chance

Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Mike Collins 97%
Derek Dooley 3%
Moving Now

Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Everett Wess 60%
Dakarai Larriett 44%

Backpack FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$100M 100%
$200M 100%

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

16% chance

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by…?

June 30, 2026 3%
December 31, 2025 0%

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4% 100%
Above 3% 100%

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

16% chance

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

13% chance

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by…?

December 31, 2026 53%
June 30, 2026 10%

Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?

34% chance
Moving Now

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by…?

December 31, 2026 25%
June 30, 2026 1%

Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season?

100% chance

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

88% chance

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

10% chance

Sudan civil war ceasefire by…?

December 31, 2026 27%
June 30, 2026 4%

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

1% chance

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