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Market of the Day
2% Yes chance
Yes 2%
No 98%
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Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

10% chance

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Republican 59%
Independent 39%

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

20% chance

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola 62%
Dan Sullivan 39%

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

12% chance

Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$100M 73%
$250M 59%

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$39 trillion 100%
$40 trillion 94%

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by…?

June 30, 2026 100%
March 31, 2026 100%

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12% chance

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

19% chance

US defaults on debt by 2027?

5% chance

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by…?

December 31, 2026 5%
June 30, 2026 1%

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

9% chance
Moving Now

OpenAI IPO by…?

December 31, 2026 45%
September 30, 2026 23%

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

40% chance
Moving Now

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

27% chance

Consensys IPO by ___ ?

December 31, 2026 21%
September 30, 2026 8%

Trump out as President before 2027?

10% chance

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

10% chance

Will Trump resign before 2027?

4% chance

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by…?

December 31 20%
June 30 0%

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

3% chance

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

17% chance

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

27% chance

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

7% chance

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

30% chance

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

1% chance

Will Hezbollah disarm by…?

December 31 14%
March 31 0%
Moving Now

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

41% chance

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

3% chance

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-100 72%
101-1k 15%

OpenAI acquired before 2027?

6% chance

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

New Zealand 23%
Belgium 21%

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

15% chance

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

7% chance

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

40% 100%
35% 38%

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

82% chance

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

7% chance
Moving Now

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

21% chance

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?

1% chance
Moving Now

Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

23% chance

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland 33%
Egypt 28%

Will US withdraw from NATO by…?

December 31 5%
June 30 0%
Moving Now

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

31% chance

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

8% chance

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

9% chance

Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$500M 34%
$700M 31%

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

13% chance

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