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Market of the Day

Fed Decision in July?

$4.9m Volume ↓ 2.6% today

No change 72% Yes No

25 bps increase 28% Yes No

50+ bps increase 1% Yes No

+2 more

72% Leading

No change 72%

25 bps in… 28%

50+ bps i… 1%

+2 more

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Moving Now

Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?

56% chance

Yes No

$9k Vol.

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Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

17% chance

Yes No

$5k Vol.

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Another Elon baby by December 31?

25% chance

Yes No

$601 Vol.

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How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?

70% 100%

Yes No

75% 96%

Yes No

$11k Vol.

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Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

9-11 82%

Yes No

12+ 18%

Yes No

$77k Vol.

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# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

4 56%

Yes No

5+ 43%

Yes No

$39k Vol.

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3rd largest private company end of July?

Stripe 48%

Yes No

Perplexity 45%

Yes No

$7k Vol.

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2nd largest private company end of July?

OpenAI 97%

Yes No

Databricks 3%

Yes No

$12k Vol.

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Largest private company end of July?

Anthropic 98%

Yes No

Lambda 1%

Yes No

$22k Vol.

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CO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Kiros 10–15% 99%

Yes No

Kiros 15–20% 1%

Yes No

$17k Vol.

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Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by July 31?

↓$10B 100%

Yes No

↓$9B 33%

Yes No

$112k Vol.

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Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

3% chance

Yes No

$1.2m Vol.

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$875B 100%

Yes No

↓$850B 100%

Yes No

$34k Vol.

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Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by July 31?

↓$8B 100%

Yes No

↓$7.75B 100%

Yes No

$32k Vol.

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Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$170B 100%

Yes No

↑$165B 100%

Yes No

$90k Vol.

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Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$17B 100%

Yes No

↓$16B 43%

Yes No

$41k Vol.

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Will Canva’s valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$41B 100%

Yes No

↓$40B 20%

Yes No

$37k Vol.

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Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by July 31?

↓$45B 100%

Yes No

↓$42.5B 100%

Yes No

$74k Vol.

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Will Epic Games' valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$12.5B 50%

Yes No

↑$13B 13%

Yes No

$50k Vol.

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Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$100B 100%

Yes No

↓$90B 20%

Yes No

$32k Vol.

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Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by July 31?

↑$175B 100%

Yes No

↑$180B 54%

Yes No

$44k Vol.

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Which maps will Valve Remove by July 31

Ancient 26%

Yes No

Nuke 3%

Yes No

$5k Vol.

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Moving Now

The International 2026: Winner

TEAM VISION 24%

Yes No

Team Yandex 20%

Yes No

$33k Vol.

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Moving Now

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Ana Brnabić 51%

Yes No

Đuro Macut 17%

Yes No

$17k Vol.

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UFC: Who Will Rafael Fiziev Fight Next?

Mateusz Gamrot 10%

Yes No

Renato Moicano 7%

Yes No

$13k Vol.

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Moving Now

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?

↓$1.05T 13%

Yes No

↑$1.15T 10%

Yes No

$59k Vol.

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Closest Governor's Race?

Ohio 13%

Yes No

Nevada 11%

Yes No

$5k Vol.

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What will Trump say in July?

Genius 100%

Yes No

Muscle 100%

Yes No

$23k Vol.

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Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

Joe Biden 100%

Yes No

Barack Obama 100%

Yes No

$77k Vol.

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Who will Trump publicly praise by July 31?

Brett Kavanaugh 100%

Yes No

King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud 100%

Yes No

$41k Vol.

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Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?

1% chance

Yes No

$44k Vol.

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Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

16% chance

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?

$0.70-$0.80T 53%

Yes No

<$0.70T 44%

Yes No

$122k Vol.

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US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

10% chance

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Serbia parliament dissolved by…?

December 31 82%

Yes No

August 31 35%

Yes No

$18k Vol.

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Vučić officially leaves office by…?

July 31 3%

Yes No

July 17 0%

Yes No

$14k Vol.

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Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

21% chance

Yes No

$91k Vol.

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What price will $ANSEM hit in 2026?

↑ $0.4 100%

Yes No

↑ $0.2 100%

Yes No

$32k Vol.

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Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by…?

August 31 65%

Yes No

July 31 15%

Yes No

$288k Vol.

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Who will be the most watched Twitch streamer in July?

Jynxzi 44%

Yes No

stableronaldo 41%

Yes No

$686 Vol.

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NBA: Kawhi Leonard Next Team

Toronto Raptors 87%

Yes No

Los Angeles Clippers 10%

Yes No

$205k Vol.

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KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. LG Twins

19% chance

Yes No

$29k Vol.

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KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kia Tigers

20% chance

Yes No

$23k Vol.

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What price will LAB hit in 2026?

↑ $18 100%

Yes No

↑ $16 100%

Yes No

$44k Vol.

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Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC – More Markets

O/U 0.5 94%

O 0.5 U 0.5

Both Teams to Score 58%

Yes No

$6k Vol.

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What price will Cap hit in 2026?

↓ $0.02 100%

Yes No

↓ $0.015 72%

Yes No

$11k Vol.

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Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC

SGR 47%

Draw 18%

BGU 47%

SGR Draw BGU

$6k Vol.

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Orix Buffaloes vs. Saitama Seibu Lions

68% chance

Yes No

$4k Vol.

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