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Prediction Markets

Market of the Day

Fed Decision in July?

$5.5m Volume ↓ 11% today

No change 74% Yes No

25 bps increase 25% Yes No

50+ bps increase 1% Yes No

+2 more

74% Leading

No change 74%

25 bps in… 25%

50+ bps i… 1%

+2 more

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Resolved

Who will testify to congress about Epstein?

Bill Clinton 100%

Yes No

Ex-Prince Andrew 0%

Yes No

$63k Vol.

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Resolved

Who will Paddy Pimblett fight next?

Benoît Saint Denis 100%

Yes No

Arman Tsarukyan 0%

Yes No

$87k Vol.

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Resolved

Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?

0% chance

Yes No

$33k Vol.

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Resolved

Don Lemon charges dropped?

0% chance

Yes No

$17k Vol.

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Resolved

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

0% chance

Yes No

$122k Vol.

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Resolved

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by…?

June 30 100%

Yes No

May 15 0%

Yes No

$1.4m Vol.

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Resolved

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Thom Tillis 100%

Yes No

Elizabeth Warren 0%

Yes No

$149k Vol.

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Resolved

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

100% chance

Yes No

$92k Vol.

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Resolved

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by…?

June 30 100%

Yes No

March 31 0%

Yes No

$1.6m Vol.

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Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

30%+ 100%

Yes No

35%+ 0%

Yes No

$407k Vol.

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Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

25%+ 100%

Yes No

30%+ 0%

Yes No

$77k Vol.

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Resolved

Bank of Canada decision in April?

No change 100%

Yes No

50+ bps decrease 0%

Yes No

$230k Vol.

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Resolved

Bank of Brazil Decision in April?

Decrease 100%

Yes No

Increase 0%

Yes No

$500k Vol.

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Resolved

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause 100%

Yes No

Cut–Pause–Pause 0%

Yes No

$2.3m Vol.

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Margot Robbie divorce by June 30?

1% chance

Yes No

$1k Vol.

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Resolved

Mezo FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M 100%

Yes No

$100M 0%

Yes No

$200k Vol.

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Resolved

Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

2% chance

Yes No

$121k Vol.

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Resolved

Total commitments for the Hurupay public sale on MetaDAO

>$2M 100%

Yes No

>$5M 0%

Yes No

$6.1m Vol.

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Resolved

Bank of Japan Decision in April?

No change 100%

Yes No

Decrease rates 0%

Yes No

$1.4m Vol.

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Resolved

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

June 30 100%

Yes No

March 31 0%

Yes No

$4.6m Vol.

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Resolved

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+ 100%

Yes No

<1.0T 0%

Yes No

$1.9m Vol.

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Resolved

Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31?

100% chance

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Resolved

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

0% chance

Yes No

$1.1m Vol.

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Resolved

Santa Cruz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)

Juan Pablo Velasco 100%

Yes No

Juan Carlos Medrano 0%

Yes No

$1.3m Vol.

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Resolved

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?

5.0-5.5% 100%

Yes No

3.5-4.0% 0%

Yes No

$534k Vol.

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Resolved

Survivor 50 Winner

Aubry Bracco 100%

Yes No

Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick 0%

Yes No

$1.9m Vol.

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Resolved

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Belgium 100%

Yes No

Croatia 0%

Yes No

$1.1m Vol.

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Resolved

Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

Albania 100%

Yes No

Armenia 0%

Yes No

$1.1m Vol.

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Resolved

Bank of Korea decision in April?

No Change 100%

Yes No

Decrease 0%

Yes No

$126k Vol.

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Resolved

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

0% chance

Yes No

$3.7m Vol.

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Resolved

Will Russia capture Hryshyne by…?

March 31 100%

Yes No

February 28 0%

Yes No

$599k Vol.

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Resolved

2025-2026 FA Cup Winner

Manchester City 100%

Yes No

Wrexham AFC 0%

Yes No

$667k Vol.

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Resolved

US forces enter Iran by..?

December 31 100%

Yes No

January 31? 0%

Yes No

$362.4m Vol.

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Resolved

Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30?

1% chance

Yes No

$2k Vol.

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Resolved

DeepSeek V4 released by…?

April 28 100%

Yes No

March 31 0%

Yes No

$2.4m Vol.

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Resolved

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by…?

March 31 100%

Yes No

January 17 0%

Yes No

$3.1m Vol.

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Resolved

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

100% chance

Yes No

$27.5m Vol.

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Resolved

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

100% chance

Yes No

$141k Vol.

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Resolved

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

100% chance

Yes No

$1.3m Vol.

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Resolved

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

54 100%

Yes No

≤49 0%

Yes No

$240k Vol.

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Resolved

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

100% chance

Yes No

$1.2m Vol.

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Resolved

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

100% chance

Yes No

$455k Vol.

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Resolved

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

0% chance

Yes No

$712k Vol.

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Resolved

Thailand strikes Cambodia by…?

June 30, 2026 14%

Yes No

January 31, 2026 0%

Yes No

$236k Vol.

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Resolved

Megaquake by June 30?

0% chance

Yes No

$88k Vol.

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Resolved

US/Israel strikes Iran by…?

February 28 100%

Yes No

January 8 0%

Yes No

$19.6m Vol.

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Resolved

Which banks will fail by June 30?

KeyBank 2%

Yes No

Santander 1%

Yes No

$591k Vol.

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Resolved

Tulsi Gabbard out by…?

June 30 100%

Yes No

March 31 0%

Yes No

$361k Vol.

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