US/Israel Strikes Iran by March 31: Is This Resolved?

A prediction market trading at $1.00 YES is not a prediction anymore. It is a historical record. The US/Israel strikes Iran by March 31 contract has fully resolved, with the market pricing the outcome at 100% implied probability, meaning traders collectively see this as settled fact, not speculation.

The US/Israel strikes Iran by March 31 market carries $19,562,007 in total lifetime volume, resolves on December 31, 2026, and currently shows a YES price of $1.00 against a NO price of $0.00. The $859,706 in 24-hour trading volume tells you traders are still engaging with this market, likely closing positions rather than opening new ones.

How the US/Israel Strikes Iran by March 31 Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the United States or Israel conducted a military strike against Iran on or before March 31. Polymarket serves as the resolution source, drawing on verified public reporting to determine the final outcome. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, though the operative deadline was March 31.

• YES: A US or Israeli military strike against Iran occurred by March 31. Price: $1.00. Probability: 100%. Resolves: December 31, 2026.
• NO: No qualifying strike occurred by March 31. Price: $0.00. Probability: 0%. Resolves: December 31, 2026.

The NO buyer needed the strike to not happen. At $0.00, NO offers zero expected value. Any remaining NO holders are fully underwater. The only rational action at this price is closing out, and the $859,706 in recent volume suggests exactly that kind of position cleanup is underway.

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Market Signals: What the Money Flow Confirms

The US/Israel strikes Iran by March 31 market shows zero price movement across 1-hour and 24-hour windows, with a trend score reflecting complete stasis. When a market hits $1.00 and stops moving, that is not indecision. That is finality. The math doesn’t lie: this contract has nothing left to price in.

The $19,562,007 in total volume reflects deep trader engagement over the contract’s life, a level that earns HIGH confidence classification. The $494,766 in available liquidity means the order book still has depth, but at a $1.00 price, that liquidity serves settlement mechanics, not price discovery. The $859,706 in 24-hour volume is unusually active for a fully resolved market, pointing to traders unwinding large positions before the December 31 formal close.

• YES price at $1.00: Contract treats the March 31 strike outcome as confirmed and fully priced.
• NO price at $0.00: Zero residual probability assigned to the no-strike scenario.
• 1-hour price change at +0.0%, 24-hour change at +0.0%: Price has stopped moving entirely, consistent with resolution.
• 24-hour volume at $859,706: Elevated activity at a locked price signals position exits, not new bets.
• Total volume at $19,562,007: Confirms this market attracted serious capital throughout its lifecycle.

Lines Analysis: Reading a Fully Priced Market

Here’s what the market is missing, or rather, what most readers miss about a market like this. A $1.00 price is not a 99% probability with rounding. It is the market’s definitive statement that the underlying event occurred. The US/Israel strikes Iran by March 31 contract opened at $0.73, meaning traders originally assigned a 73% probability to this outcome. That price moved to $1.00 as confirming information entered the market.

The case for NO is purely theoretical at this stage. With the price locked at $0.00, no trader is willing to pay anything for a NO position. The structural barriers to a NO resolution include the documented public record, which Polymarket uses for resolution, and the full consensus of the trader base that reviewed that record and bid YES to $1.00.

• YES momentum: Price reaching $1.00 from $0.73 open implies confirmed event reporting drove the move upward.
• NO viability: Any resolution dispute would require overturning the documented public record, an extremely low-probability scenario.
• Volume signal: Continued $859,706 in 24-hour activity at a locked $1.00 price points to settlement-related trading only.
• Liquidity signal: $494,766 in remaining liquidity supports orderly position closeout through December 31, 2026.
• Related markets: Correlated contracts including US strikes Iran (100%) and Iran closes Strait of Hormuz (100%) show identical full resolution, reinforcing the consensus read.

The $19,562,007 in total volume gives this market credibility. Traders committed serious capital over this contract’s life, and that capital has now converged on a single answer. The data favors YES, not as an analytical judgment, but as a mathematical statement of where the market has landed.

LINES VERDICT

YES: Confirmed Resolution

The contract price at $1.00 reflects a fully resolved outcome. The market has priced the US/Israel strike against Iran as confirmed fact based on the public record.

What the market says: One hundred percent probability, meaning traders have collectively treated this as a done deal. With the formal resolution date set for December 31, 2026, remaining activity is settlement mechanics, not genuine price risk.