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Market of the Day

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

$4.9k Volume ↓ 90.8% today
Office Romance 5% Yes No
Ticket To Paradise (2022) 1% Yes No
Creed III 1% Yes No
+8 more
5% Leading
Office Ro… 5%
Ticket To… 1%
Creed III 1%
+8 more
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Where will Trey Hendrickson play in 2026-27?

Baltimore Ravens 100%
Carolina Panthers 0%

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

93% chance

Where will Kenneth Walker III play in 2026-27?

Kansas City Chiefs 100%
Denver Broncos 0%

Pro Football: AFC East Champion

Buffalo Bills 55%
New England Patriots 38%

Pro Football: AFC North Champion

Baltimore Ravens 45%
Cincinnati Bengals 33%

Pro Football: AFC South Champion

Houston Texans 43%
Jacksonville Jaguars 31%

Cambria FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$20M 54%
$70M 48%

Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$500M 31%
$300M 12%

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

1% chance

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Any U.S. House member 2%
Jared Kushner 1%

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

5% chance

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 80%
Reza Pahlavi 5%

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Mojtaba Khamenei 100%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri 0%

Will Iran strike a Gulf State on…?

March 1 100%
March 2 100%

Anthropic CEO arrested?

1% chance

Katana FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M 100%
$1B 0%

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Khamenei – Iran Supreme Leader 100%
Kim – Supreme Leader of North Korea 0%

Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?

22% chance

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

9% chance

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by…?

June 30 19%
March 31 0%

CA-04 Primary Winners

Mike Thompson 100%
Eric Jones 53%

Bill Gates charged by June 30?

1% chance
Moving Now

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

46% chance
Moving Now

Colorado bill to decriminalize sex work becomes law in 2026?

33% chance

Epstein storage units raided in 2026?

21% chance

Tony Gonzales charged by June 30?

12% chance

GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M 96%
$100M 84%
Moving Now

Bachelorette Season 22 Winner

Other (Season Cancelled) 79%
Doug Mason 7%

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

13% chance

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

41% chance

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ 84%
1200–1249 5%

Will Russia enter Stinky by…?

July 31 32%
March 31 0%
Moving Now

Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?

24% chance

Next River Plate Manager?

Eduardo Coudet 100%
Hernán Crespo 0%

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia 100%
Yemen 0%
Moving Now

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

29% chance

SBF released from custody in 2026?

4% chance

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by…?

December 31 37%
March 31 0%

Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2

63% chance

Kash Patel out by…?

December 31 53%
June 30 7%

U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by…?

March 31 96%
February 28 0%

Will Hibachi launch a token by ___?

December 31, 2027 78%
December 31, 2026 61%

Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?

2% chance

# of views of MrBeast "I Built 10 Schools Around The World" video day 1?

18–20m 100%
20–22m 0%

Les Wexner charged by June 30?

7% chance

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

120-125m 32%
130m+ 30%

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by…?

December 31 38%
June 30 2%

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by…?

December 31 23%
June 30 2%

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