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Market of the Day

Lowest temperature in NYC on June 12?

$17.3k Volume ↑ 62% today
74-75°F 95% Yes No
72-73°F 4% Yes No
70-71°F 1% Yes No
+8 more
95% Leading
74-75°F 95%
72-73°F 4%
70-71°F 1%
+8 more
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E. Jean Carroll arrested by June 30?

1% chance

Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31?

98% chance

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by…?

December 31 26%
September 30 11%

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

14% chance

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?

16% chance

Israeli forces enter Tyre by…?

June 30 7%
June 7 4%
Moving Now

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by…?

June 30 44%
May 31 0%
Moving Now

Israeli forces enter Choukine by…?

June 30 40%
June 7 0%
Moving Now

Bank of Korea decision in August?

No Change 46%
25 bps cut 43%
Moving Now

South African Reserve Bank decision in July?

25 bps hike 63%
50+ bps hike 43%

What will Trump say in June?

Cocaine 100%
Best of Trump 100%

Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30?

28% chance

Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO before August 2026 91%
<$900M 4%

California Governor Primary Election: Los Angeles County Winner

Xavier Becerra 97%
Steve Hilton 6%

California Governor Primary Election: San Diego County Winner

Steve Hilton 96%
Tom Steyer 10%

California Governor Primary Election: Orange County Winner

Steve Hilton 98%
Xavier Becerra 3%

California Governor Primary Election: Santa Clara County Winner

Xavier Becerra 83%
Tom Steyer 16%

California Governor Primary Election: San Francisco Winner

Tom Steyer 97%
Steve Hilton 1%

Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?

40-45% 99%
<30% 1%

Abelardo de la Espriella vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?

40-45% 99%
45%+ 1%
Moving Now

Deep Fission IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25B 55%
$1.75B–$2.0B 38%

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

Tom Cruise 73%
Ryan Gosling 69%

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Dune: Part Three 79%
Project Hail Mary 77%
Moving Now

Top Spotify Album 2026

You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love – Olivia Rodrigo 52%
The Fall-Off – J-Cole 30%

Precipitation in Seoul in June?

120-130mm 34%
110-120mm 26%

Precipitation in Seattle in June?

1-1.5" 35%
2.5-3" 27%

Precipitation in London in June?

50-60mm 28%
60-70mm 27%

Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in June?

Taylor Swift 100%
Ariana Grande 100%

Which artists will have #1 hits in June?

Taylor Swift 100%
Ariana Grande 100%

Top Spotify artist in June?

Bruno Mars 92%
Justin Bieber 5%
Moving Now

#2 Spotify artist in June?

Bruno Mars 12%
The Weeknd 11%

LALIGA: Next Elche Manager

Zlatan Ibrahimovic 44%
Oliver Glasner 42%

Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?

10% chance

Paloma Valencia vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?

<10% 98%
10-15% 2%
Moving Now

Serie A: Next AC Milan Manager

Oliver Glasner 88%
Kaka 24%
Moving Now

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

31% chance

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

72% chance

JD Vance out as VP by…?

December 31 9%
June 30 1%

OK-03 Republican Primary Winner

Frank Lucas 99%
Wade Burleson 1%
Moving Now

OK-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Jeff Pixley 60%
Mitchell Jacob 36%

DC Delegate Democratic Primary Winner

Robert White 75%
Brooke Pinto 24%

Alaska At-Large Primary Winners

Nick Begich III 94%
Matt Schultz 94%

GTA VI released before November 2026?

6% chance

US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

4% chance

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

2% chance

James Comey charges dropped by July 31?

6% chance

Trump meets with Putin by…?

December 31 37%
September 30 21%
Moving Now

Who will meet with Iran by June 30?

J.D. Vance 54%
Jared Kushner 47%

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