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England vs Croatia Prediction (2026 World Cup)

Sport
June 9, 2026
England Vs Croatia Wc2026

Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. This content is for informational purposes only. Lines.com may earn affiliate compensation from links on this page. Polymarket operates under CFTC oversight. Kalshi holds CFTC-regulated exchange designation.

The England vs Croatia prediction market opens Group L in one of the 2026 World Cup’s marquee opening fixtures. England faces Croatia on June 17, 2026, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The match kicks off at 4 p.m. ET and repeats the 2018 FIFA World Cup semifinal matchup. Kalshi traders price England as the clear Group L favorite entering the June 17 fixture.

Group L market odds: England favored at 57% implied probability vs Croatia

Kalshi traders price England at 57% to win the June 17 Group L fixture against Croatia. The draw carries a 26% market-implied probability on the Kalshi World Cup game market. Croatia holds a 17% market-implied win probability on the Kalshi platform as of June 9, 2026. Polymarket prices England at 71% to win Group L outright. Kalshi separately has England at 94% to advance from Group L to the knockout stage.

Croatia defeated England 2-1 after extra time in the 2018 FIFA World Cup semifinal in Moscow. Croatia enters the 2026 tournament ranked 11th by FIFA, among the strongest European nations in the field. England is coached by Thomas Tuchel, who took charge of the national team ahead of the 2026 cycle. England and Croatia last met at UEFA Euro 2020 in the group stage, where England won 1-0 at Wembley.

Thomas Tuchel’s 26-man England squad includes captain Harry Kane and midfielder Jude Bellingham in the starting setup. Midfielder Declan Rice anchors England’s midfield alongside Elliot Anderson in Tuchel’s preferred 4-2-3-1 shape. Winger Bukayo Saka and forward Marcus Rashford provide pace on the England flanks for the Croatia opener. No significant England injury concerns were confirmed ahead of the Group L opener as of June 9, 2026.

Group L contains England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama across three group-stage matchdays. England is priced at 94% to qualify from Group L to the knockout round, per Kalshi’s Group L advancement market. A win over Croatia gives England a 3-point Group L lead with two matchdays remaining. Croatia requires at minimum a draw to maintain a realistic second-place finish in Group L.

England’s Group L odds have held stable, with Polymarket pricing England at 71% to win the group outright. The draw line at 26% represents the key movement indicator for pre-match prediction-market traders. A Croatian upset at AT&T Stadium would materially reprice Group L and England’s broader tournament futures on Kalshi. Tuchel’s selection choices at kickoff may shift in-play market odds rapidly in the opening 20 minutes.

England entered the 2026 tournament as one of Europe’s top-three prediction-market favorites to win the trophy. The Kalshi and Polymarket pricing reflects England’s squad depth and Tuchel’s tournament management experience. A clean Group L win over Croatia would validate pre-tournament expectations and protect England’s futures price. A Croatian repeat of the 2018 Moscow result would register as the tournament’s first major prediction-market shock.

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Sources: Kalshi (England 57%, draw 26%, Croatia 17%, World Cup game market, June 9, 2026); Polymarket (England 71% to win Group L, June 9, 2026); Defirate (England World Cup odds tracker, June 2026); ESPN (Group L schedule, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, June 17, 2026); Dimers (England vs Croatia prediction post-squad update, June 2026).