Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit Count: Mar 30-Apr 5 Market

The Strait of Hormuz transit count market opened this week at 50 cents for the 30-34 band and has since been cut nearly in half. That 28-point collapse on March 31 is the story here. Something hit this market hard the moment early-week vessel tracking data began filtering through, and the 32% implied probability is the market’s current best guess that transits land in that middle band by April 5.

The contract covering How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5) sits at 32 cents for a YES on the 30-34 vessel outcome, against a 68-cent NO. Total volume through April 2 sits at $51,453, with $20,820 of that moving in the last 24 hours alone. The market resolves April 5. With available liquidity at $51,730 and total volume below $1 million, a single large bet or a confirmed vessel count can reprice this contract sharply in either direction.

How the Hormuz Transit Count Contract Works

YES resolves if verified ship transit data for the Strait of Hormuz between March 30 and April 5 falls in the 30-34 vessel range. The alternative bands, 35-39, 25-29, 40-44, 45+, 20-24, 15-19, 10-14, and under 10, each carry their own separate markets. Only the 30-34 band is analyzed here.

• YES: Transit count for the week lands between 30 and 34 ships. Price: 32 cents. Probability: 32%. Resolves: April 5, 2026.
• NO: Transit count falls outside the 30-34 range. Price: 68 cents. Probability: 68%. Resolves: April 5, 2026.

NO buyers need transits to land in any other band. The most likely destination is 35-39 if traffic is running above the midpoint, or 25-29 if the week trends lighter than current tracking suggests. A geopolitical disruption, a surge in tanker rerouting, or a quiet diplomatic weekend could push the count in either direction. Right now, the 68% NO position reflects the market’s belief that early-week data has already pushed transits outside the 30-34 window.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum picture here is about one event: March 31. A 28-point single-day collapse followed by two partial recoveries, 7.5 points on April 1 and 9 points on April 2, tells you the market got new information fast and is now slowly second-guessing itself. The math doesn’t lie: opening at 50 cents implies near-coin-flip odds, and the current 32% reads as a market that got corrected by real-world data.

At $51,453 total volume and $20,820 in 24-hour activity, this is a thin market. That 24-hour volume represents roughly 40% of all money that has ever traded here, which means this week’s final days are generating the bulk of the action. Thin liquidity means price can move sharply on breaking news. A confirmed vessel count update, a tanker incident, or a regional security development before April 5 could swing this contract 10 to 15 points in minutes.

• 1-hour price change: Flat following the April 2 recovery bounce. Momentum has stalled after two days of partial rebound.
• 24-hour price change: Down 5.5%, indicating the April 2 recovery could not hold. Bears retain control entering the final trading days.
• Market open vs. current: The contract opened at 50 cents and now trades at 32. That gap reflects a week’s worth of transit data landing outside the 30-34 window, at least partially.
• Volume concentration: $20,820 in 24 hours on a $51,453 total suggests sharp positioning as resolution approaches. Late-week bettors are active.
• Thin liquidity flag: Total volume below $1 million. Any verified count update before April 5 resolution carries outsized price impact.

Lines Analysis: Hormuz Transit Count Market

The case for YES hinges on the partial bounce. Two consecutive recovery sessions after the March 31 collapse suggest some traders believe early-week data overstated the deviation. If transits have been running at the lower end of the 35-39 band, a light final two days could pull the weekly total back into the 30-34 range. Here’s what the market is missing: weekly transit counts are cumulative, and late-week slowdowns are common when early-week traffic runs hot.

The 68% NO is the stronger position by a wide margin. The opening-day collapse happened for a reason. Early-week vessel tracking showing counts trending above 34 or below 30 would rationally reprice YES from 50 cents to the low 30s. The two-day bounce reads more like uncertainty than conviction. Traders who entered YES at 22 cents near the weekly low are playing a mean-reversion thesis on thin evidence.

• Vessel tracking updates: Any mid-week data confirming counts above 34 pushes NO higher and collapses the recovery bounce.
• Regional security developments: A tanker incident or military movement near the Strait could spike or crater transit counts in the final 48 hours.
• Resolution timing: April 5 is Sunday. Final weekend transit confirmation could come with less market liquidity to absorb the move.
• Band adjacency: The 35-39 market is likely pricing the most probable alternative. Monitoring that contract’s movement signals where tracking data is pointing.

The $51,453 in total volume reflects modest but genuine market engagement for a niche geopolitical data contract. Both sides have traded actively, but the 68% NO position dominates. The data favors NO entering the final 72 hours, with the recovery bounce looking like noise rather than signal.

LINES VERDICT

NO Holds Through Resolution

The March 31 collapse was a data-driven repricing, not panic. Two days of partial recovery on thin volume does not reverse a 28-point move built on actual tracking information.

What the market says: At 32%, the contract gives the 30-34 band roughly one-in-three odds. That near-certainty on the NO side reflects early-week data already pointing outside this window, with resolution just days away.

Key unknown: Final vessel tracking data published by Lloyd’s List Intelligence or the U.S. Energy Information Administration before April 5. A count landing at 33 or 34 ships would trigger a sharp YES repricing in a thin market with limited time to absorb it.