Strait of Hormuz Ship Count: Zero-to-Ten Range Locks In

The math doesn’t lie. A prediction market asking how many ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on April 3 has priced the 0-to-10 range at 98.3 percent. That near-certainty reflects something extraordinary: traders believe one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints will see almost no commercial traffic on a single, specific day.

This contract covers the average number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, 2026. The 0-10 outcome has absorbed $356,289 in total volume and sits two days from resolution. The 48.8 percent price increase over seven days tells a story of rapid, event-driven repricing. Understanding what moved this market is more important than the current probability.

How the Strait of Hormuz Ship Count Contract Works

This market resolves based on measured vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, 2026. The contract offers seven brackets. The 0-10 bracket is the subject of this analysis. A YES buyer profits if official tracking records fewer than 11 ships transiting on that date. A NO buyer profits if any other bracket captures the actual count.

• YES (0-10 ships): Price: $0.98. Probability: 98.3%. Resolves: April 3, 2026.
• NO (any other bracket): Price: $0.02. Probability: 1.7%. Resolves: April 3, 2026.

The NO buyer needs normal or near-normal shipping activity to resume before April 3. On a typical day, roughly 20 to 21 vessels transit the Strait, which carries approximately 20 percent of global oil supply. For NO to pay, traffic would need to recover from whatever is currently suppressing it into a range above 10 ships. The related market showing only a 23 percent probability of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of April makes that recovery scenario look distant.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum picture here is stark. The 7-day gain of 48.8 percent originated with a single-day surge of 41.3 points on March 25. That kind of move does not happen on routine data. Something changed on or before March 25 that convinced traders the strait was effectively shut. The subsequent 24-hour drop of 1.7 percent is noise against that backdrop, likely profit-taking as the contract approaches expiry with little new information to process.

Total volume of $356,289 with $53,216 in available liquidity and $21,384 traded in the past 24 hours puts this firmly in thin-market territory. Volume below $1 million means a single large bet or a breaking news headline could move the price sharply before April 3. The contract is liquid enough to trade, but not so deep that it absorbs shocks cleanly.

Related markets sharpen the picture. The Iran closure market sits at 100 percent. The crude oil futures markets have also resolved at ceiling probabilities. Here’s what the market is missing in most mainstream coverage: these correlated contracts collectively suggest traders treated a Hormuz closure as a done deal well before April 1. The 17 percent probability on a US naval escort of commercial shipping through the strait is the single most interesting data point. It implies some residual hope for safe passage, but the overwhelming capital is positioned for near-zero traffic.

• 7-day price change: Up 48.8 percent, driven by the March 25 surge. Signals a discrete event repriced the entire market in one session.
• 24-hour price change: Down 1.7 percent. Pre-resolution drift, not a structural reversal.
• Related Iran closure market: 100 percent probability. Corroborates the 0-10 bracket thesis directly.
• US naval escort market: 17 percent. The one scenario that could push Hormuz traffic above 10 ships on April 3.
• Normal traffic return by April end: 23 percent. Suggests disruption extends well beyond this single-day contract.

Lines Analysis: Strait of Hormuz Traffic on April 3

The case for YES rests on correlated market confirmation. The Iran closure contract at 100 percent and the crude oil ceiling probabilities form a coherent picture. If the strait is formally or effectively closed, vessel operators have no incentive to attempt transit. Insurance underwriters pulling coverage, which historically precedes sustained traffic drops, would cement the 0-10 outcome. The price history shows this thesis gained traction fast and held it.

The case for NO is thin but worth naming. The US naval escort market at 17 percent represents the main escape valve. If the US Navy began actively shepherding commercial tankers through the strait before April 3, traffic could spike above 10 ships in a single day. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and relevant Gulf states would also challenge the near-zero outcome. Neither scenario has meaningful probability behind it right now.

• Iran closure market resolution: Already at 100 percent. Any reversal would reprice this contract instantly toward NO.
• US naval escort announcement: A confirmed escort mission before April 3 would push traffic above the 10-ship threshold.
• Shipping insurer statements: Coverage restoration announcements would signal vessel operators could safely transit, moving the count higher.
• Satellite AIS tracking data: Any public vessel tracking showing ships queued for transit would challenge the current consensus.
• Diplomatic channel news: Iranian state media or US State Department statements on strait access would be the fastest repricing catalyst.

The $356,289 in total volume represents real conviction behind this outcome. The market has spoken with unusual clarity. The data favors YES by an overwhelming margin, and the correlated markets provide structural support that a single news headline would need to overcome to move the needle.

LINES VERDICT

Zero to Ten Ships Locks In

The correlated closure markets, the price history showing a single-day repricing event, and the slim naval escort probability all point the same direction. The 0-10 bracket is the consensus outcome with two days remaining.

What the market says: A 98.3 percent probability translates to near-certainty in prediction market terms. With thin liquidity and only 48 hours to resolution, any volatility would require a discrete, named event to trigger it.

Key unknown: The US naval escort market at 17 percent is the contract to watch. A confirmed escort mission through the Strait before April 3 close of day would be the only realistic catalyst to push ship counts above 10 and collapse the YES price on this contract.