How Many Ships Will Transit Hormuz by April 30?

The Strait of Hormuz moved fewer than ten vessels per day through most of March 2026. That single data point makes this market more interesting than its 40% price suggests. The question is not whether Iran has shut the strait. Iran has. The question is how far selective reopening advances over the next 25 days.

This contract resolves on the 7-day moving average of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. The current implied probability sits at 40% for the 10-to-20 vessel bracket. Trader sentiment leans bearish, with 60% of market weight on outcomes outside that range, mostly below it.

How the Strait of Hormuz Transit Contract Works

IMF Portwatch tracks daily arrivals of ships through the Strait of Hormuz using satellite-based AIS data. This contract resolves on the 7-day moving average that Portwatch publishes for April 30, 2026. The count includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Military vessels and ships not tracked by Portwatch do not count.

• The 10-to-20 ships bracket prices at $0.40, implying a 40% probability.
• The 0-to-10 bracket prices higher, reflecting where traffic has sat since late February.

The alternative outcome pays when the 7-day average on April 30 lands outside the 10-to-20 range. Given the current trajectory, that means either the strait stays near single digits or a diplomatic breakthrough pushes traffic above 20. The 0-to-10 bracket captures the scenario where Iran maintains selective access at current levels without meaningful expansion.

Market Signals: Momentum and Conviction

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Market Signals: Price Action and Conviction

The momentum composite shows a 24-hour gain of 2.5% with trend score data pending. That modest upward drift connects to Iran’s April 2 announcement permitting Philippine-flagged vessels to transit, adding one more national-flag category to a growing list that already includes China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Turkey. Each addition nudges the probability that daily counts climb above ten. The April 1 attack on a QatarEnergy tanker ran in the opposite direction, reminding the market that IRGC enforcement remains active.

Total volume stands at $55,039, with $9,065 traded in the last 24 hours against $67,023 in order-book liquidity. This is a thin market. Volume below $100,000 means single large trades shift price materially. Price history shows a sharp 10.5% drop on April 4, likely tied to the reported IRGC drone strike on MSC Ishyka and no resolution to the US military campaign begun March 19. The partial recovery of 5.5% the same day reflects uncertainty rather than conviction.

• The 24-hour price change of 2.5% aligns with Iran expanding its approved-flag list, adding upward pressure on the 10-20 bracket.
• The related market for April 3 daily transits priced at 98% for the 0-10 bracket, anchoring the base case firmly below ten ships through early April.
• The Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure market sits at 24%, signaling the broader Red Sea corridor remains partially functional, which reduces pressure to force Hormuz passage.
• The US forces entering Iran market prices at 100%, confirming Operation Epic Fury is active, which sustains Iranian IRGC enforcement posture.
• Thin liquidity at $55,039 total volume means this price is movable. One credible diplomatic report could shift the bracket distribution by ten percentage points overnight.

Lines Analysis: Iran, the IRGC, and the Path to Ten Ships

Iran’s IRGC has spent six weeks building a selective transit system rather than a full blockade. The approved-flag list now covers China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and the Philippines. That list represents the bulk of non-Western commercial tonnage. Daily transits have crept from near zero in early March to a range of five to eighteen ships on select days in late March, per Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. A 7-day moving average landing between ten and twenty on April 30 requires that incremental list expansion to continue and IRGC enforcement incidents to stay low.

The bear case for this bracket is straightforward. The IRGC attacked QatarEnergy’s Aqua 1 tanker on April 1 and claimed an attack on MSC Ishyka on April 4. Each incident depresses the count. The US military campaign, underway since March 19, has not produced a ceasefire or transit agreement. Oman held deputy-minister-level talks with Iran on smooth passage, but no outcome has been announced. If the IRGC resumes aggressive interdiction or the US strikes IRGC naval assets directly, daily counts revert toward single digits and the 0-to-10 bracket captures resolution.

Signals to Monitor:

• Iran’s IRGC announcing additions to the approved-flag list would push the 10-20 bracket probability higher as daily counts climb.
• A US strike on IRGC naval infrastructure would likely collapse transit counts back toward zero and strengthen the 0-10 bracket.
• Oman-Iran talks producing a written transit protocol would be the clearest single catalyst for a move above 20 ships per day.
• Lloyd’s List tracking of cumulative transits above 200 before April 15 would signal the 10-20 range is reachable by month-end.
• A QatarEnergy or Saudi Aramco tanker successfully transiting without incident would signal expanded Gulf-state access and lift the 10-20 bracket materially.

The math doesn’t lie: the market at $55,039 total volume is pricing a genuinely uncertain outcome. The 40% probability on the 10-to-20 bracket reflects a real possibility, not a long shot. Here’s what the market is missing: the approved-flag list has expanded consistently every two to three weeks since early March, and if that cadence holds, the 7-day average on April 30 lands squarely in the ten-to-twenty range. The data favors monitoring IRGC enforcement incidents as the decisive variable, not diplomatic posture.

LINES VERDICT

Contested: Bracket Outcome Genuinely Uncertain

Iran’s incremental flag-list expansion points toward the 10-to-20 range, but active IRGC enforcement incidents in early April keep the 0-to-10 bracket competitive.

What the market says: 40% probability for the 10-to-20 ships bracket as of April 6, 2026. The April 30 resolution date leaves three and a half weeks for IRGC posture and diplomatic developments to shift the count in either direction.

Geopolitical Context: Selective Access and the Approved-Flag System

Iran’s IRGC built its selective passage system by granting transit rights based on national-flag alignment with Iranian interests. China was the first nation granted access, on March 4, 2026, reflecting its status as Iran’s largest oil buyer. Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and the Philippines followed over the next four weeks. The UN secured a separate carve-out for humanitarian and fertilizer shipments on March 27. Each category adds a thin layer of vessels to the daily count. The normal pre-crisis average for Hormuz transit calls exceeded 100 ships per day. The 10-to-20 range represents roughly ten to twenty percent of that baseline. Getting there requires stable IRGC enforcement, no new US or Israeli strikes on Iranian naval assets, and continued flag-list expansion at the pace seen since early March.

The related market for March end-of-month Hormuz transits resolved at 99%, almost certainly in the 0-to-10 range. That data point is the baseline. The Bab el-Mandeb closure market at 24% suggests traders expect that corridor to remain partially open, reducing the economic urgency of forcing a Hormuz solution. The US forces-in-Iran market at 100% confirms the military campaign is ongoing, which sustains the structural risk of IRGC retaliation against commercial shipping. The next catalysts before April 30: any Oman-Iran transit protocol announcement, any US announcement regarding Operation Epic Fury’s next phase, and IMF Portwatch data updates in the second and third weeks of April.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 40% probability mean here? The market prices a 40% chance that the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average for April 30 falls between 10 and 20 ship transits. A 40% probability means the market considers this outcome less likely than not, but far from remote.
• What does the competing bracket position represent? The 0-to-10 bracket captures the scenario where Iran’s selective access system produces fewer than ten daily transits on average through April 30, reflecting sustained IRGC enforcement or new military incidents.
• What moves this market? IRGC enforcement actions, additions to Iran’s approved-flag list, Oman-Iran diplomatic announcements, US military operations near the strait, and IMF Portwatch data releases all shift the bracket probabilities.
• When and how does this contract resolve? IMF Portwatch publishes the 7-day moving average for April 30, 2026. If data is unavailable by May 14, 2026, resolution uses the most recent available date. First publication governs; revisions do not count.
• Is $55,039 in total volume reliable? This is a thin market. Low volume means price reflects a small number of traders and can shift on single large trades. Treat the 40% probability as directionally informative, not statistically stable.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of April 6, 2026. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new diplomatic, military, and institutional developments emerge, especially as the April 30 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.